2023 UFO Claims by David Grusch
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
0) What if interdimensional travel is easier than we think, we just haven't figured out the hack yet. Ergo: they're not actually that advanced.
0.5) What if they're hyper-specialized? They're really good at crossing dimensions but not so good at conventional flight.
0.618) What if they're hyper-efficient, and sending these craft for them is like us manufacturing widgets in a manual factory? As in they've reduced the cost so much that a few trips having "defects" is normal and within an acceptable QA tolerance for them?
1) What if unreliability is a fundamental property of interstellar/interdimensional (or whatever we think this is) travel. In a physical-law type of way analogous to the uncertainty principle specifying an inviolable tradeoff between precision of position and momentum.
2) What if they're very promiscuous? What if there's 200 craft in Earth's atmosphere right now, and basically constantly for 1000 years. Assume they arrive and depart at basically constant rate of 40 per second (20 in / 20 out). For 90 years of cover up that's 110,730,240,000: or 110 billion. Assume they only crash on entry or exit. Assume that 20 craft have crashed in that time. That means they have a 1 in 5.5 billion chance of crashing. Googling estimates of airline crashes gives 1 in 1 million to 1 in 11 million. Making them 500 to 5000 times more reliable. Checks out.
I think the extraordinary thing is taking a default anthropocentric point of view, and extrapolating it to the whole universe, and having a high expectation that's highly likely to be valid.
Also, our physics is a human model remember: it's completely anthropocentric. As is the human propensity seemingly to assume that's all the physics there is.
While it is possible that life might exist in more than 3 dimensions and be able to protrude into our spacetime (at least, there isn’t anything prohibiting it), I can only imagine such intrusions would be much weirder than the average UAP.
Furthermore, we are venturing so far into speculative territory that I’m not sure we are doing any scientific investigation anymore.
There are some pretty weird stuff out there outside the average UAP cannon — of metallic orbs, cigars and clamshells — that may qualify as your intrusions; good word!
Science lives at the edge of the unknown. In this era I think we need to engage in far-out speculation if we're going to understand what comes — especially if we hope to understand it from a non-anthropocentric point of view! Ha ha ha! :)
That we don't understand and that we never observed. This is why I mentioned we wandering into speculation territory - I really can't prove there is no invisible pink unicorn sitting in my living room right now. All I can say is that I am not observing it.
You'll see something that doesn't make sense. Then you'll examine it and start formulating plausible explanations for it, and then you may start testing those against what you know and see if they can predict what is observed in other circumstances you haven't seen before.
The important part is that the explanation needs to be testable. If we just say "something outside our comprehension", it's not usable, because you can't really test that.
also not necessarily the first one either