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Comment by TeMPOraL | Hacker News Reader

> The question "Will it cannibalise our current profits?" is asked to stop every idea.

I wonder if this is the real objection, or really just a proxy one? As in, yes, the new thing will compete directly with the old thing, but it will easily bring in way more than it "cannibalizes". So the company will likely come ahead. However, the old thing and new thing are likely developed by distinct teams, in different business units of the company. So I imagine this question is really a proxy for the old thing team asking, "will it cannibalize our currenet jobs?". If the answer is yes, it's not surprising they'll resist.

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I assumed it's also an easy trap to fall in to if you start to write down pros/cons in a list when you discuss / strategize where to invest your next effort to increase profit. Effort to optimize current thing, have a lot of pros and few cons, so very low risk. Something that could cannibalise current profit might have few bullet points at the pros list vs the cons, even if that one bullet point might be substantially bigger in the effect.

Sony had the technology(mp3 players, phone, etc) and competence to be the first one to invent the smartphone. But I can't imagine in a risk averse culture, that a boardroom would listen to someone that would come in a suggest something that cannibalise multiple divisions in the company, in the promise that it would generate more profit, vs each divisions proposal of how to optimize their already existing profits.

Palm and blackberry got crushed by apple, who weren't the inventors of the smartphone but rather the ones who came out with a product that could be successfully marketed for over a decade. The smartphone is very different from a lot of the software projects people discuss here in that there are a TON of moving parts to release something as functional as the iPhone.

It is an uncomfortable risk for many, to back a likely long term winner over a sure current cash cow. Even if their own estimates say they should go for it. See it all the time.

And to make it even more short sighted, the idea won't go away, it will just take a little longer and then pop up in competing colours.

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