Tesla plans for 375,000 Cybertrucks per year | Hacker News Reader

Tesla plans for 375,000 Cybertrucks per year

electrek.co

40 pointsmfiguiere70 comments

I did not realize that they backtracked on the exoskeleton design.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-went-fro...

"In its Q1 2023 Update report, Tesla disclosed images of the Tesla Cybertruck pilot production line. They were enough for Cory Steuben, from Munro Live, to clarify that the Cybertruck does not have an exoskeleton. The engineer candidly shared in an interview that we are in front of a unibody structure. In other words, it "will be more like a Honda Ridgeline" or "a big old Model Y." Towing and transporting stuff in the bed will face massive challenges due to the way the truck will be built."

What's the significance of this for someone unfamiliar?

i believe the original design was a patented concept that promised to streamline production, sounds like they flipped back to a standard chasis design to me?

IIRC, part of the goal was weight reduction, which is a significant consideration with EVs. If you can convert the cosmetic body panels into structural elements, you can reduce the overall bill of materials.

They have since aggressively pursued large cast aluminum frame technology. This reportedly reduced the complexity of their car's frames from 100+ pcs down to 1 or 2. My guess is that they switched the trucks fully over to these Al frames as a way to homogenize their production lines. Purely conjecture, but they probably held off under the assumption that they could not produce the Al frames fast enough, but a sales slump freed up the production capability.

appreciate the additional info here. thanks

Unibody design are so costly to repair if in the slightest accident/fender bender.

Tesla has never been concerned with post-sales support or maintenance.

I can't imagine an exoskeleton vehicle would have fared any better. That was one of my biggest concerns - would a dented side panel count as frame damage?

Yeah I cant imagine what repairs on that would be. It sounded like the structural integrity was pushed to the panels? So maybe it would be easier to repair but unlikely?

During the launch they bragged about the fancy alloy they were going to use for the exoskeleton, going so far as to hit it with a sledge hammer on stage. The alloy gets its strength from fancy hardening methods, which are undone by high heat, so welding weld repairs are not an option. I would guess that the exoskeleton idea was engineer driven, but had to be walked back by other departments.

You mean Musk hype driven walked back by engineering reality.

Does that mean they binned the design they did on a 386?

I wonder why they didn't update their product order page if they moved away from exoskeleton.

https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

The CyberTruck's shape already precludes it from being used as a serious work vehicle. Clearly the truck can't be used to tow fifth wheels or goose neck trailers due to the triangular sloped sides. That's fine, I suppose. This is more of an SUV competitor than a truck competitor anyways.

Or what Australians call "UTEs"[0]. Which is a class of vehicle regaining popularity in the US with the Ford Maverick and Hyundai Santa Cruz (which incidentally has a very similar shape/problems).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ute_(vehicle)

The shape makes it hard for me to take it as anything but a joke.

I'm sure it's not, though.

Is that still the same basic design that was initially shown with the rigid steel body? If so, how are they planning to solve the likely safety issues here, both for the people inside as well as people outside.

Having nothing that crumples should mean that the full force of any crash is applied to the passengers. And the design looks like it's a nightmare for any pedestrian hit by it.

It’s not really a rigid body anymore, this got silently changed 18 months ago. It’s just slightly thicker than normal body panels.

What truck is designed to be nice to a pedestrian that is hit by it?

Every road-legal truck in Europe? Nice being a relative term of course.

Exactly, I'm fairly sure based on my rudimentary understanding of European regulations that the Cyber Truck as designed wouldn't pass. (Sharp corners = very bad for pedestrians)

My assumption is that they aimed to have the automation/AI to the point that it avoided collisions and pedestrians, and aimed to sidestep the regulations. I don't think that has a chance in hell of happening though.

Don't get me wrong, the child in my loves the design, it's awesome. However the adult in me knows it's stupid, ridiculously oversized and dangerous.

Yeah that frontal bumper is a people cutter, probably even for city speeds. Sure as hell am I glad I won't ever see this on roads here in Europe.

That's a valid concern that I've heard brought up and never heard it addressed, I'd assume they would make the steel very thin, or switch to aluminum.

Whatever the manufacturing challenges are would be worth addressing to essentially have no paint.

You can have your Tesla in any color as long as it's bare metal.

In the US, trucks are exempt from most of the pedestrian safety requirements (and many of the occupant safety tests too).

I'd guess they never sell this in the EU, because it would never pass, or if it did, it would get terrible scores.

> In the US, trucks are exempt from most of the pedestrian safety requirements (and many of the occupant safety tests too).

What? Why?? I knew they had much wider tolerances for pollution which is playing a part in manufacturers heavily pushing them, but why the gell would they be exempt from any pedestrian or passenger safety requirement? (And yes, it's obvious modern American trucks are deadly to passengers, the question is how they how was that allowed)

Perhaps pedestrian airbags that deploy from the front?

Reminds me of Carmageddon, that spring-like weapon which launched pedestrians over the map like a cannonball :) . (PS: I know about external airbags prototypes, it's just St. Elon might as well make a more powerful version, to go with the Cybertruck looks) :)

In 1920s there were at least a couple of prototypes what quite litrrally caught people in the net. A bit lazy to look for it by myself but Pathe definitely had a video on those gizmos.

It looks like the bed is now always covered by a piece of glass:

https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

It's really frustrating watching all the EV companies (except, arguably, Ford) completely face plant on pickup trucks.

The frames have been able to accommodate battery weight + volume since the early 90's, so very little innovation is needed here. There is a huge market for no-frills, low-range, high duty cycle vehicles for around town deliveries, etc.

Pickup trucks are ridiculously expensive to operate with current gas prices, and many people that own them are environmentally conscious (but need to have a truck to move big stuff). So, there's basically no market risk for someone that produces a 1500 class truck that is a direct knock off of the trucks that have been being built for the last 30-40 years.

Ford is by far the leader here. They invested a lot in moving to an aluminum frame, which lets them cut weight while increasing payload capacity. The main problem with their current offering is that they only offer it in a supercab with a short (but longer than the other EVs) bed.

Also, it's an electron guzzler, so it's actually dependent on charging networks, which are still a disaster in the US.

Anyway, here's a book describing the ICE -> Lead Acid pickup truck conversion process from 1993. The result kind of sucked because of the batteries, but my point is that the frame wasn't an issue at all, so very little innovation is required from the manufacturers:

https://www.amazon.com/Build-Your-Own-Electric-Vehicle/dp/08...

>It looks like the bed is now always covered by a piece of glass

It's not glass, it's a roll-up cover. You can see Jay Leno demo it in this video from 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25ZuKkbHdqM

Bed covers protect your stuff from thieves and also decrease drag (increase range). They are a smart idea, especially for electric trucks.

Ford is buying into the supercharger network, which is not a disaster.

Where do you see the bed always covered by a piece of glass? It looks like there's a photo in that very URL showing the bed open.

Also, designing a 1500 series pickup EV is far from simple. Those trucks are cheap to buy (ish) cheap to maintain (ish) and can haul a lot of stuff a long distance. An ev that meets these requirements is unobtainium. At best you might be able to pick 1 or 2 of those parameters to meet.

You can definitely make something that looks like an EV pickup, and we have been able to do that for almost a hundred years. Making something that performs like a regular pickup is entirely different, which is the important part.

> You can definitely make something that looks like an EV pickup, and we have been able to do that for almost a hundred years. Making something that performs like a regular pickup is entirely different, which is the important part.

I agree with this. Historically pickups are high torque brusers for work and hauling; they've since turned into luxury vehicles. You can pull speed out of an EV, but cheap, simple, long range, and heavy hauling they are not.

Honestly surprised there isn't a hybrid or dual motor version that could leverage an ICE

It's wild they still have the original design on their pre-order website. They know that what you order will not look anything like that thing on https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck - how are they able to advertise it as such?

I think the issue is that electric cars need to be very efficient to get reasonable range, while they benefit greatly from electric motors and regen braking, trucks just are not aerodynamic. At the end of the day, with current battery tech, you can only carry the equivalent of few gallons of gas (I just looked cyber truck has 200kWH battery which is huge so more like 5-6 gallons of gas equiv.) See ford truck reviews where it is fine until you try to tow, then the range is abysmal.

Shouldn't Pickups be Hybrids?

> The frames have been able to accommodate battery weight + volume since the early 90's, so very little innovation is needed here. There is a huge market for no-frills, low-range, high duty cycle vehicles for around town deliveries, etc.

Pickups were common among EV conversions in the 90's for this reason! Especially given the state of traction battery technology of the time, which for people of normal means was Trojan flooded lead-acid batteries, or Optima for those who could afford a bit more. If you wanted close to 100 miles of range, you needed a pickup frame to haul that much lead unless you were willing and able to do serious bodywork.

Ford and Chevy also made production EV pickups in the 90's; a Ranger and an S10. They didn't have a chance to make much of a long term impact as both manufacturers worked very hard to repossess and destroy all traces of their product, which was the style at the time. A few examples of each escaped destruction after years of persistent effort and substantial legal expense and are still running around.

. There is a huge market for no-frills, low-range, high duty cycle vehicles for around town deliveries, etc.

You mean like a Renault Kangoo (available in an electric version) or Ford Transit Connect (it seems it will be available in an electric version)? An early generation of the first one was even used for postal deliveries by the French post office.

One thing I've never seen discussed by the media is whether the Cybertruck as demoed is even road-legal. For example, there are specific rules about how you can design your headlights, restrictions on wheels that extend beyond the fenders (fenders exist to prevent your car from shooting debris at the car behind you), etc.

Something tells me the actual product will look quite different than what we've seen so far.

Teslas makes ridiculous claims and we eat it up more like.

There will be an initial flurry of Cybertruck sales. Musk will latch onto that with typical bravado and proclaim he told everyone so.

Then sales will tank. It'll be a niche seller thereafter. A trinket.

It was an exceptionally stupid approach to a truck by Tesla (which I noted when it was revealed). Ford will make a zillion dollars on electric trucks, they did the obvious thing and Musk couldn't get out of his own way in needing to create the unnecessary and unwanted just to do something different. See, look how innovative we are, at doing pointless things.

It's the modern truck version of the DeLorean, at a time when Tesla very desperately needs diversification from Model 3 sales (one point of business death). The truck should have been a gigantic, hyper profitable segment, and they'll have wasted years going down the wrong path.

I find it fascinating you are patting yourself on the back have having forseen the failure: "(which I noted when it was revealed)" when the failure hasn't even happened yet!

That is a less charitable interpretation; a more charitable interpretation is "That was my initial impression and nothing in the years since since has changed it."

You forgot to mention it has no wireless, less space than a Nomad

"Ford will make a zillion dollars on electric trucks, they did the obvious thing and Musk couldn't get out of his own way in needing to create the unnecessary and unwanted just to do something different."

Negativity aside, isn't that what startups and HN are about? Do something new, see how people react, and iterate/pivot.

Perhaps this attitude has no place in the auto industry, and it should all be incremental changes. Then again, perhaps it does.

It will be interesting to see the new price. It was something like $40,000 when it was first announced. Other EV trucks are nearly twice that. I can’t imagine Tesla being able to keep it that low.

I know the design is polarizing but it gives the Tesla truck something unique to position it against what Ford has and what Chevy will soon have.

USD 40k is cheaper than any available Toyota minivan (which run for USD 50k+ based on available models for sale at various places I watch).

375K is optimistic. It specifically avoids catering to traditional truck buyers, but it's damn near the size of a superduty. That's pretty big for a lifestyle truck. They'll sell some, for sure, but 375K?

The regular Tesla cars, the internet used to be super super hyped about, while in the real world people I would talk to (in Austin Texas) were often pretty skeptical and unsure.

With the cybertruck it seems to be the reverse, the internet hates it, but many people in my neighborhood at least (Suburbia Austin) have pre orders. I think success will come down to price and range. If it is affordable and can road trip with 4 mountain bikes, I'd be in.

I am one of those Austinites you mention with a pre-order. It seems like an excellent car. I need a truck that can tow short distances, haul stuff from Home Depot, has seating for a family, and occasionally get me to Dallas or Houston.

This checks every box, plus it looks awesome and is made in my city!

I can't wait for it and I can't believe there are so many people who are negative about it.

> This checks every box

So do the existing EV trucks, though?

The only other car that checks the utility boxes for me is the F150 lightning.

But the Ford software is abysmal, and I think the car looks pretty ugly. Tesla is much better at software and, to me, the Cybertruck looks way cooler.

Plus, it being made in Texas is a nice bonus.

I wouldn't necessarily count the Rivian out. It's not nearly as small as it looks in pictures, it can probably tow a utility trailer as well as anything else. The nice thing about the Ford, though, is that they're jumping on the NACS bandwagon, so they'll benefit from supercharger access pretty soon.

Looks are subjective, I'll give you that. And maybe Tesla's software is better than Ford, but that's a low bar :). Tesla's software has lots of bugs too.

I'd like a dumb EV truck that doesn't try to do anything special. I'll use CarPlay for infotainment instead.

Rivian and Lightning are both available and fully functional, is Tesla planning a redesign or sticking with the weekend-soapbox-derby aesthetic?

Given that traditional aesthetics are already being provided to the market by Chevy and Ford, and typical EV aesthetic by Rivian, it should be more fun if Tesla continues to be really weird with their truck.

Agreed! Most car aesthetics are so safe and uniform. A part of me is happy that we are finally getting tech that looks like the what people in the 80s thought the future would look like. Next, flying cars?

OTOH, it ages exactly like you'd expect for a futuristic 80s design. It looked out of style before the unveiling was complete.

I actually kind of like the look of it, though most people I've talked about it with disagree. It's polarizing.

...that said, I also have no need whatsoever for this vehicle, and will not be buying it. Now, if they ever manifested a subcompact and didn't have an asshat for a CEO...

> most people I've talked about it with disagree. It's polarizing.

Doesn't a topic need two poles to be polarizing? ;)

A Rivian is something like 100k, which means it’s really not in the running here. You could briefly get a lightning for 40k, but that has quickly passed. I think the cheapest is now 50 or 60k. If Tesla can hit their original 40k target I’ll buy one even though I don’t like Tesla.

Last photos I saw, looked like plastic

legos with wheels....

Maybe you saw this one? https://www.amazon.com/Hot-Wheels-Cybertruck-Radio-Controlle...

Ugh, I hate the way they look. Not looking forward to a bunch of bro owners looking to show off and drive like maniacs

I wonder how high they can be lifted... I bet you see a bunch 6 feet in the air...

Yeh it’s fugly

Maybe they should start by selling one?

rip on it all you want, these will sell out and you will see them everywhere

> you will see them everywhere

Dit Tesla actually get clearance to sell them in the EU, for example? The rules in EU wrt road safety are quite different. E.g. many of the SUVs common in the US are simply not on sale nor allowed in the EU (IIRC because their frame is too stiff and visibilty too hampered). Is this differeent for the Cybertuck?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com