Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

The history of the world contains few examples of correct guesses about what developments are likely in science by such-and-such a date. On the other hand, there are so many wrong guesses that the correct guesses are effectively drowned out.

It's almost as though there were a butterfly effect going... the world is so rich in new things to discover, and there are so many eager researchers, that a tiny idea could take fire at any moment and completely change the direction of science. It's not just "possible", it's inevitable.