No, it's a scorched earth tactic, in preparation to abandoning Crimea.
Without this dam, Crimea will be without water for at least next 3 to 5 years after Ukraine recaptures it.
Without this dam, Crimea will be without water for at least next 3 to 5 years after Ukraine recaptures it.
Why would this happen?.
Good riddance if this will actually happen.
Based on this.
> I have received Russian citizenship
You should be okay, I think they will recognise most people faced the choice of getting Russian citizenship or potentially very bad things happening to them, as long as you where Ukrainian before I don't see the issue.
> and I have inherited, sold, and bought property after 2014.
This is on you my friend, you knowingly sold, and bough property that was in essence stolen.
> And while it is not clear who is going to be considered a collaborator, nobody who received Russian citizenship is safe (which means nobody at all).
I don't think this is true, if you weren't overtly fighting or collaborating with the Russians I don't think the Ukrainians will do much.
Given that 10+ million Ukrainians have lost their homes or forced to relocate, entire destroyed cities, the extensive mining of Ukrainian territory etc. it is difficult to be especially sympathetic to non-Crimean Russian settlers who might lose their property.
Cancelling property deals after 2014 would effectively mean most will still be able to live in their homes and apartments but will never be able to sell anything. It took me 5 years to change Ukrainian documents to Russian documents (property documents, passports, driver license, everything), and I still have not received and will probably never receive ownership on the small workshop that belonged to my father's company because it requires something from Ukrainian archives, which is pretty much impossible to obtain. I spent months of my life standing in queues in government agencies and in the court. I cannot imagine changing everything back, it will take decades!
And then, what about the kids who were born here after 2014 and have no Ukrainian documents? What about tens of thousands who lived here all their life but who always were Russian citizens, like my father in law? Sevastopol has been a Russian navy base since 1783, there are so many people who are kids and grandkids of retired navy officers, who were born and lived here but never had Ukrainian citizenship. What about their families, and everybody who had some relation with Russian navy? Half of guys my class in 1994 went to the local Russian navy academy and became Russian navy officers, no chance they or their families can re-integrate in Ukraine. And then the Russian military shipyards, and the local branch of Moscow State University and many many other Russian institutions which were functioning here since forever and all the people working for them and their families... Russia has always had so much presence here, I honestly cannot imagine Ukraine taking over Crimea without expelling or imprisoning half of the population.
Sorry for the brain dump, I didn't mean to make a statement or prove anything, it is just such a mess it hurts to even think about this all.
In any case, taking a passport alone will not be the critera: https://kyivindependent.com/official-advises-ukrainians/
Lol? "Presumption of guilt" for anyone who lives (or happens to be) in Crimea.
EDIT: with a strongly implied round ups for anyone deemed undesirable
https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053...
> some cases threatened and tortured
Sorry? At least OSCE SMM or equivalent source?
Accepting a passport alone is not going to be the criteria. The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so: https://kyivindependent.com/official-advises-ukrainians/
>The Ukrainian government explicitly recommended taking the papers if coerced to do so
How can anyone be coerced to get a passport?
The video you linked to mentions an example: an elderly person getting a Russian passport in order to get medical care (after nine years).
Also:
> Compulsion; forcible constraint; the act of controlling by force or arms.
As those people like to say, that person could just go to the Ukraine and get medical care there. Bonus points: wouldn't get shot up as a collaborator.
One cannot "just" cross the front lines of an active warzone. This should be blindingly fucking obvious. Especially not with all of the bridges being blown. Especially not when you're elderly, probably ill or injured (they are looking for medical attention, remember) and in all likelihood do not have a vehicle in the first place.
And it's just "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine".
Thank you for showing your colors so clearly. The kind of person who does not see how it could be coercive to force elderly, sick people to leave the place they live (and probably livestock, because Ukraine) and travel hundreds of miles, or to accept Russian citizenship - to get basic medical attention is not worth arguing with.
> One cannot "just" cross the front lines of an active warzone
What exact 'front lines' and 'an active warzone' were for 8 years for Crimea? What forbade an Ukrainian patriot to find the time in 8 years to get from the occupied by evil Russkies Crimea to his homeland and don't be in the need 'to be coerced to receive the passport to receive a medical help'?
> And it's just "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine".
And it's 'Netherlands', not 'the Netherlands', right, because you are the one consistent fellow? And it's also makes sense because English is the first language of the Ukraine, right?
> The kind of person who does not see how it could be coercive to force elderly, sick people to leave the place they live
But somehow you are perfectly fine if those people are coerced by the right guys to leave their places - because somehow people living all their life in Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Lugansk aren't a proper humans.
You are boring and specifically take only the points where you can argue.
In the video in question it's specifically said what would happen when Ukrainians would take Crimea. Of course you ignored that to make your point look good in your own eyes.
So, let's try again:
Arestovich would shoot up everyone deemed too Russian, everyone else would be guilt by default and somehow only some elderly people who couldn't make it to the motherland in eight fucking years to receive the so needed medical attention (but somehow found the time to get a Russian passport) would be spared - and you are totally, absolutely fine with all these points.
You have a wrong choice of words here, sadly. Every one would be prosecuted and after that they would decide who was a collaborator and who wasn't.
https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053...
Flooding the area would make it much harder to cross for the Ukraineans though.
It's the only warm water port Russia has on the black sea. And thus full year access to the mediterranean. I doubt they will give it up. Perhaps the rest of Crimea, I could imagine. But not the base.
The idea that Russia will launch a single nuke is fantasy, they haven’t even tested one in over 80 years.
Even if one or two fail, they will find one that works. It would set a terrible precedent for the rest of the world, where any kind of nuke deployment right now is "not done".
We don't want to go back to the 60s where nuclear-tipped torpedoes were regularly carried and in fact one almost was launched during the cuba crisis.
Even with a tactical nuke we are talking about the end of the Russian federation, if anything would invite a physical kinetic response it would be a nuke, tactical or not.
This is bonkers of course.
The idea that Russia will launch a single nuke is fantasy
Not at all, unfortunately. It has always been and remains a significant card for them to play.
"Novorossiysk is the biggest Russian seaport. In 2019 cargo turnover amounted to 142,5m tons[26] In 2021 cargo turnover amounted to 105,2m tons[27]
Novorossiysk is connected by rail and highways to the main industrial and population centres of Russia, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. "
Their main port in the black sea is still Sevastopol though. It would cost a lot to transfer all that over to Novorossiysk and it would also cause them to lose a lot of face. I doubt they will let that happen.
Maybe they shouldn’t have built their most important naval base in a foreign country then proceeded to invade that country lol.
History doesn’t give them a right to take what they feel like that.
Just because Putin is salty that Stalin made Crimea part of the Ukrainian SSR doesn’t allow him to reverse it.
(Stalin died already in 1953)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikita_Khrushchev#/media/File:...
There's lots of evidence it harms Russian troop build ups in the region but only if they plan on abandoning the southern Kherson region and don't have any plans beyond that.
I'm a little confused: You did not provide any source. You're not obligated to provide any, but I don't understand your comment.
There's a lot of wishful thinking and propaganda swirling around this conflict, and strong claims need strong evidence.
Rando claims have zero value by themselves - there is an infinite supply that say anything and everything. That's why science, law, etc. require evidence.
The evidence is only that I expressed interest in a source. The rest is your fabrication. Have a good day!
This eliminates the Dnipro as an invasion route and allows Russia to concentrate on defending the north.
Putin may not care much about Crimean civilians but he's not going to go through all this trouble just to make them suffer.
I am not sure why you believe these two things contradict each other.
It also requires that you assume Putin genuinely believes he's going to lose Crimea in this war, which seems questionable (a Ukrainian military conquest of the peninsula is a *huge* ask, much more so than just retaking the occupied Donetsk territory).
The tactical explanation, and especially the timing, really seems much more likely.
The Nova Khakovka reservoir fed not only the Crimea Canal, but three (or was it four?) other major canal systems... Irrigation canal systems. Without the dam, the erstwhile reservoir's water level is of course far below that of those canal systems, so they're all out of commission. And with them some significant proportion (a fifth? Something like that) of Ukraine's agriculture.