No, the elite do not 'gamble' on development
buttondown.email
buttondown.email
The truth is that sometimes elites are competent and sometimes they are not or they are competent at some things and incompetent at other things. Events can change perception rapidly. The Russian Armed Forces were the object of fear two years ago, today they look like a paper tiger because Russia screwed up.
It’s an entirely different question of what motivates people to stick to the “competent” or “incompetent” position categorically.
For that matter I am right now reading a very good book about the Communist Party under Mao, and the fact is that Mao was rightfully afraid of being deposed and that’s why he had the Cultural Revolution. The aristocrats of the Ancien Regime in France didn’t seem that afraid of being deposed but with hindsight they should have been. People can be very powerful and still be afraid of losing power, and they frequently are.
A major reason why antisemitism was such a problem circa 1940 was that “elites” in Europe long thought you were a somebody if you owned a lot of agricultural land but if you were a doctor or a lawyer or a businessman you were a nobody. Well, jews didn’t think that way and became powerful and a whole lot of nobles found they weren’t so noble anymore and were mad about it.