Job in traditional software = UI/UX designers, product managers, Typescript/Swift/Go developers, etc.
Please answer personally for yourself.
You need a longer horizon than three years. Nothing significant happens that fast in software. I expect I will have better hardware in three years, but I will still type code in some 20+ year old language for a living.
Same.
Some threats I've seen:
Offshore development – in the early 2000's it was all anyone could talk about. The American software developer was dead, there was no reason not to hire someone for pennies on the other side of the world. This mostly resulted in middle management expecting me to manage the offshore developers until they realized they were just dumping money into consulting management firms. No one talks about this anymore, yet the economics and tools are even more advantageous to offshoring.
No Code – Worse than offshoring. Some byzantine framework that will handle everything. You just end up debugging the framework. When management goes this direction, I just move on.
>I will still type code in some 20+ year old language for a living.
So true. Even Swift and Rust which are relatively brand new languages are both 8 years old. A developer going to college today will see these as mature languages by the time they enter the workforce.
I don't expect AI to help in any significant way in the next 3-5 years where there is an industry wide shift in how we work. Writing boiler plate code for a brand new web app is super simple. In the span of 20+ years, I've maybe done that a handful of times where that was needed for a work project (many more times personally exploring things, etc.)
The hard part about software development isn't typing/generating code, its getting to a level of shared understanding about what is being requested from other humans and what constraints there are with delivering that and making decisions about trade-offs. Then there is all the non-functional elements of running software in production: scalability, maintenance, patching, security, monitoring, etc.
How many web devs today are working with HTML+CSS+JS, making static sites? How many make a mobile app using old school native Android or iOS, spinning up async threads for each network/file call?
I was at a hackathon recently. A similar one last year had almost 0 people using AI, with maybe a couple who integrated GPT-3 into their pitch. Last weekend, nearly half used ChatGPT in some manner. Maybe not code but brainstorming.
I think you're conflating two things
1. working on AI systems and products
2. working with AI assistance
The recent developments in the field haven't changed the numbers for 1 (which is what your question is asking), they're affecting the numbers for 2.