EU traded off massive inflation for independence from Russian fossil fuels. A victory for politicians, not so much for the Otto Normalverbraucher.
The price rise was caused by supply restriction from Russia in preparation for the war and likely intended as a blackmail all along.
The prices will likely jump again in the fall/winter (but likely nowhere near to the 2022 winter).
But since saudis are "besties" with the US establishment, this is a-ok!
Mmmh finally that was the Frenchs…
Some of us think it was a victory for world civilization.
Nato bombed yugoslavia for months for the same thing, and they still act as a defensive organization.
But there's one clear fact - the war in Donbas was calming down in intensity in the years preceding 2022. In the three years 2019-2021, 78 civilians died in total, mostly from old unexploded mines. There was absolutely no "need" to make it a full scale war and ramp up the number to tens of thousands civilians dead.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-numb...
> MOSCOW, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Two regions in eastern Ukraine where government and separatist forces have been fighting since 2014 were hit by more than 1,400 explosions on Friday, monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said, pointing to a surge in shelling.
1400 "explosions" in one day are far away from "calm" to me. This was just before russia entered the war.
On the other hand, eu/nato was training ukranian soldiers since 2015.
It's sad that there's absolutely zero evidence of that except for Kremlin's justification for its own invasion. Isn't this excuse as old as war? "we had to invade, otherwise they would invade us".
> This was just before russia entered the war.
Well, exactly. Russia was looking for casus beli. There were reports of increased separatist shelling, they likely wanted to provoke Ukraine into moving first, very similar playbook to 2008 Georgian war.
OP linked a Reuters post citing OSCE numbers. This organisation includes most European countries, US and Russia among others.
If we can’t listen to est neither to west, who should we listen ? You, my Colonel ?
The article did not mention who intensified the shelling in the first place, but states that the only civilian casualty happened on the Kyiv government controlled territory.
Please explain to me, how is this proof that Ukraine wanted to invade.
However I’m far from being familiar with politico-military strategies and am here to learn. Please accept my excuse for the cynical tone of my precedent message.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukra...
How convenient. Russia had been moving soldiers and military equipment for months into position, scheduled a joint exercise with Belarus placing their soldiers in spitting distance of Kyiv, and then suddenly there are explosions "forcing" Russia to invade. Wow, it sure worked out fortunately that half of their military was already there.
I'll say, if the whole military had been there the Ukraine would be sixteen times larger today!
Belarus, the country, is "within spitting distance" of Kiev. There has always been tight integration between their armies, as well as open borders. There have Always been Russian soldiers close to Kiev, because that's where the city is geographically. What you are doing is putting a conspiracy-spin on something that is a common occurrence.
To put this in other terms, here's what you stated: "A large number of armed Republicans have been found in the city of Crofton around Jan 6, spitting distance from the white house." Reality: The statement is true. It omits the inconvenient fact that for the last 50 year it's been a republican county with high gun ownership, and that's where they live.
There is an immense amount of propaganda from Ukraine. Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country. They are trying to clean it up, but that's not a viable task at scale. We shipped $25bil in cash there last year - much of that, went into someone's pocket. I read Ukrainian news, in Ukrainian. They constantly announce people getting arrested with millions of fresh dollars in cash. They arrested a government official who stole 18 train cars worth of humanitarian aid, and sold it at his chain of stores. Their banks officially steal money from foreigners and locals under a new asset-forfeture type of law.
Personal story: I have some friends there and a baby who is my goddaughter. Their city got leveled, they escaped westward and now live close to Poland. The government won't let men out of the country, despite my friend having a sick wife, and a 2yo baby. I've wired about $50k over there last year, and continue to send about 1/3 of my salary this year. He rents an apartment. The cities in the west, which are fairly safe - the locals escaped to Poland, Germany, and Canada, and are collecting welfare checks triple the size of their pre-war salaries. They then rent out their apartments to refugees from the east. Rent prices are 5x what they used to be, and they're making bank on their fellow nationals who can't leave. The reason they can't leave, despite a law like that being against the constitution there? Zelensky keeps holding popular votes, and everyone votes to force men to stay in the country. Because they're making bank on the rent.
Recently, a new regulation passed, allowing the national bank to take money out of people's accounts, if they receive over $11k in a 30 day period. I wired $15k to my friend for the next 3 months of living expenses. The national bank confiscated the wire transfer, asking my friend for proof of where it came from. I had my bank send a letter saying it came from my direct-deposited salary (in America), and wrote a letter myself saying this is financial aid for my goddaughter's family. The bank refused to deposit the funds into my friend's account, and refused the request from Wells Fargo to reverse the wire. I then tried to send using paypal-xoom as it's still free for now. They're blocking transfers to Ukraine, because apparently many of their customers have had the funds confiscated, and never returned to the sender.
From what you wrote, you're on a dopamine rush, and the Ukrainians are infallible heroes. I've lived in Moscow for 4 years for work, I've lived in Ukraine for almost two. I have professional contacts and friends in both places. The only difference between the people in charge of Ukraine, and the people in charge of Russia, is Ukraine doesn't have the military to go threaten the world - and if they did, they would. And yes, there are lots of nazis there, and they do celebrate nazis on public media. Less than we do stateside, but that's a stretch of truth, not a lie from Putler. Step back, analyze the situation with logic, and don't let your feelings guide your beliefs. Otherwise, you're the same as the nutjob republicans, just have different opinions.
You've written a large wall of text to debate something that was already settled as fact in February 2022. Did you actually forget that this wasn't a "common occurence?" Russia literally did invade Kyiv from Belarus. I've watched the Russian preparations for war unfold since October 2021.[0][1] The Belarusian military exercises were a pretext for military invasion, indisputable after-the-fact now. They shipped their heavy materiel to the border, held some exercises, and then immediately after invaded from Belarusian territory. Please point me to your public explanation of the issues back then.
Every country has corruption. Ukraine certainly does, just many countries with weaker institutions the world over: India, Hungary, Serbia, Brazil, Turkey, etc. It is not an excuse for invasion and the slaughter of tens of thousands of humans.
You're also tangentially inserting a debate about the validity of martial law requiring men to stay to defend their country from invasion, missiles, and slaughter, which most countries and countrymen would support. (horrendously suggesting the reason is rents??)
Lastly, let me remind you that yesterday, today, and tomorrow, Russia keeps marching onto new Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and human beings with artillery and missiles, shooting people that resist a Russian army come to take over their land. And it keeps happening because enough people like you carry water for their garbage excuses.
[0] https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
[1] https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1491636736291655682
How about a war costing 500 civilian lives, with no land conquest by the perpetrator (NATO countries), so that in a few months you can bring an end to the systematic campaign of terror, including murders, rapes, and arsons in which over 13k people were killed or missing during the two year conflict. The Serb forces caused the displacement of between 1.2 million to 1.45 million Kosovo Albanians.
Ya post-facto seems like a trolley problem with a better outcome than your desired alternative of thousands of more dead.
Serbia has never come to terms with how much death and destruction they caused in the 90s to their neighbors. Sad to see them still support other countries doing the same. This attitude will hopefully not lead again to the further killing of your neighbors and same international shameful pariah that Russia is experiencing.
The KLA is a terrorist group, and the last time some terrorists did something in USA (although the number of dead civilians was ~6x higher), the USA decided to attack and occupy afghanistan for 20 years.... just because some saudis couldn't fly a plane. Imagine mexican terrorist groups killing civilians in mexico for years, usa sending the army in to fix the problem, and then russia nuking the hell out of USA because of the anti terrorist actions.
Second, there is no martial law requiring men to defend their country right now, and there is no mass mobilization. Here is what there is, and I actually know and skype with people who this has happened to. There are assholes walking the streets and grocery stores, hunting men. When they find you, they lock you up in a room for a day. During that day, they ask you for increasing amounts of cash to let you out. If you are still there at the end of the day, congratulations, you are now in the army. This is reality.
What makes me an expert, compared to someone like yourself who has not been to either country, and gets his opinions from random twitter accounts and one-sided news, is my parents escaped the USSR, I have lived and worked in both countries, and I have and currently do, talk almost daily to people I know in both countries.
>It is not an excuse for invasion ... lastly, let me remind you that yesterday, today, and tomorrow
I am not sure to whom you are replying. try reading what I wrote, and replying to that. your little rant seems unrelated to the conversation.
>I've watched the Russian preparations for war unfold since October 2021.
you haven't watched anything. you have watched twitter clips from random people, while sitting on your couch, and selecting just the news you want to read, translated into your language by someone. the parrot, is literally you. I am contributing first hand personal experience from myself, and people I actively talk to on the ground in both places. you don't want to read it? you seem to not have. then don't reply to the voices making up a strawman in your head. if you don't read, you can't reply to what's written.
if a quarter of a book page is "a wall of text" to you, this actually explains a lot.
You don't know anything at all about this person.
And gets his opinions from random twitter accounts and one-sided news,
Pure ad-hominem and absolutely against site guidelines.
What makes me an expert ... is my parents escaped the USSR, I have lived and worked in both countries, and I have and currently do, talk almost daily to people I know in both countries.
This background is sufficient to make you informed; but it doesn't make you an "expert" about anything.
I know what he wrote. No personal experience, no credible sources, his reply was a bunch of twitter links. As such, all I do know about this person, is he has no personal experience with the matter, as per his comment.
>Pure ad-hominem and absolutely against site guidelines.
He literally keeps posting one-side of the news, and random twitter links. If you feel attacked by facts, it's time to go vote for trump. stating facts, is not against site rules. In addition - you're not in charge of site rules, and you should eff off with your spam.
> it doesn't make you an "expert" about anything
and as I've said to the other guy, you should read the thing to which you are replying instead of making up a strawman. nowhere did I say I'm an expert at anything. I shared rare personal experience so people can form more balanced opinions, based on extra information.
Your entire framing is about low level random anecdotal details instead of the actual high level issues, because you have minimal personal experience on the ground yet entirely ignorant on history or geopolitical reality.
I don't buy this assessment at a all.
Based on everything from their origins, to their voluminous public statements, to their actions, to their deportment and vibe -- not to mention the basic historical record of the two countries -- there's an astronomical difference of mindset between Putin and Zelensky, and between their respective supporters. I'd go into more detail ... but the other half of your statement is basically vacuous, so why bother? (I mean yeah, I suppose Ukraine would carry itself with more swagger if it had nuclear weapons; so would Fiji or Mexico).
Oh, and then there's this statement:
What you are doing is putting a conspiracy-spin on something that is a common occurrence.
I'm not sure what innuendo you're making here, but since you're apparently referring to the massive pre-invasion mobilization -- to say it was "a common occurrence", or compares to a bunch of GOP apparatchiks gathering in Crofton -- is just too bizarre for words.
"to their voluminous public statements" - I'm sorry - what??? My comment was literally about many of their public statements being propaganda, and your reply is... based on their public statements? What do you think about China's public statements that American soldiers brought covid to China?
The people who get in power there, are mostly toxic pieces of power tripping corrupt crap. You should at least - if you're only basing your experience on reading internet news while sitting on your couch - look into the history of their police and politicians and officials. They execute people or lock them away for life when they get in the way. They literally beat gay people to death for holding hands - something I've personally watched. They are very close to that same drunken macho trash that is Russians.
That, sir, is my opinion. I am not asking you to buy that assesment, and I'm not here to convince a random internet stranger of jack. The whole purpose of my post, is so people like you, who form strong opinions based only on things you Chose yourself to read, step back and realize you're behaving just like the redneck self-brainwashing crap taking over this country.
>I'm not sure what innuendo
The innuendo is not there. The accusation that someone took a normal event and spun it to keep themselves angry, and is trying to spread that bs on the internet, is there, in plain text.
>gathering in Crofton
no one gathered anywhere. that was literally the whole point of that simple comparison paragraph. now if someone were to spin it as a gathering, that would be a bad actor spreading conspiracy theories. Get it now? of course you don't.
Have a good life buddy. bbye, and enjoy your velcro shoes. that's another one you won't get, and the cause for not getting it, is the cause of the velcro shoes.
If you only knew, comrade. If you only knew.
But you don't, and by this point you've adeptly demonstrated your behavioral tendencies. This combination of profound intellectually dishonesty and intentional baiting and button-pushing has no place on HN. You bore us, and will have to take your game elsewhere.
The war started (and Russia entered it) in 2014, as you are perfectly aware.
On the other hand, eu/nato was training ukranian soldiers since 2015.
As Ukraine had every right to, given the events of 2014.
Except the russians seem to direct their shells at hospitals etc.
Funny way to spell “fought separatist forces supported by Russia”.
Single digit inflation with a pandemic, supply chain disruptions a war and an energy crisis is a lot of things but hardly massive. Given the horror stories that we were promised by defenders of the status quo this is a joke, and I say that as a German citizen who had to absorb a few nasty electricity bills.
If this is all it takes to wean ourselves off autocratic blackmail we have a lot to be ashamed off for the years where we pretended this would impoverish us and we'd freeze to death. Turns out that has a lot more to do with our ex-chancellor sitting on a Gazprom board than reality.
At this point there was no non-painful way to do this.