I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification.

As you say, 1% versus 6.5% is a level of precision that isn't helpful. The way I prefer to think of it is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is sufficiently probable as to warrant making contingency plans for such an event, but not so probable as to warrant making active efforts to avoid Taiwan.

He doesn't deserve downvotes, he gave his assumptions and people can make their own judgements. His odds sound reasonable to me.

The image of some western white guy complaining about unfair it is the China invalidates his ownership in the TSMC following a genocidal invasion of Taiwan is pretty good, I’ll give you that.