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Comment by endisneigh | Hacker News Reader

The stock price makes absolutely no sense, but the AI hype is real so I won't be shorting.

Just give you a crude metaphor - buying NVDA is like buying a $10 million dollar house to collect $10,000 in rent a year. The price to earnings is bonkers. This valuation only makes sense if somehow Nvidia is using alien technology that couldn't possible by reproduced in the next two decades by any other company.

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Your last point is why it feels to me like the better investment right now is everyone and anyone else that will be working very hard to be at where NVDA is at right now. I suppose the obvious answer here is AMD, but surely there's other minor companies too that could see a huge amount of investment.

Every tech giant is sprinting into this space. I highly doubt nVidia will still have a moat as big in 12 months.

Yes, well, everyone else already had that idea with AMD in the last month.

Agreed, the fundamentals are off and drunk on hype. Where else can investors put their money?

Goog, Meta? They are by far leading in AI research, and they've both developed their own chip. Apple is also going to come out ahead with their Neural chip - imagine chatGPT and stable diffusion becoming part of the iOS SDK

Meta has their own chip they actually use? IIRC LLaMA was trained on A100s.

Apple is non-viable for LLM workloads.

I would add MSFT due to their exposure to OpenAI and their very successful previous and upcoming integrations (GH Co-Pilot, Bing revamp, upcoming Excel Co-Pilot etc.)

Yes, I can imagine commoditization of such models. Plus they own their chips/silicon and have billions of devices deployed. I think Apple is one to watch because UX is challenge for AI integration. ChatGPT made UX for LLMs user friendly. Apple's design history is superior to its competitors.

TSMC's P/E is under 20. Disclaimer: I hold

TSMC is cheap because of the risk of invasion, otherwise they would have a pretty insane valuation already.

How is their fab build in AZ going?

Not incredible I hear, but that could just be Morris trying to get more subsidies.

P/E is under 20 is the norm, not the exception. Even companies like meta, apple etc. had pe near 10 for long time.

Yes, but also TSMC is the chip manufacturer that makes NVidia's GPU compute units.

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