What's very important to note is that a big bulk of the recent reductions have come from picking low-hanging fruits, i.e. by replacing coal with natural gas.
This does not mean that going to zero will be possible with just more of the same.
This does not mean that going to zero will be possible with just more of the same.
But yeah, we need a lot more investment in non-fossil-fuel energy production, and we need to be able to move and store electric energy on a much bigger scale than we can now. Fossil fuels for ground transportation needs to stop being a thing. We can do it with existing technology, we've just chosen not to.
US and Europe, maybe. What about China and India?
"China permitted more coal power plants last year [2022] than any time in the last seven years, according to a new report released this week. It's the equivalent of about two new coal power plants per week. The report by energy data organizations Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air finds the country quadrupled the amount of new coal power approvals in 2022 compared to 2021"[0]
[0] https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-...
So, at least morally, they seem to have every right to increase their emissions, and it is up to us, the largest historical polluters, to contract our economies if we are serious about both climate change and moral rights. Why should we expect to live in luxury in the EU while peasants in India live without electricity just because they can't afford a non-coal power plant?
Of course, an even better approach would be for the large historical polluters to contribute funds, manpower and know-how, freely, to build clean power and clean industry in China and other places.
And finally, I am also well aware that this is higy idealistic and none of this has any chance in hell of happening. We'll just keep pointing fingers at China and India (and the USA, speaking as an EU citizen) and avoid too much actual change.
Per capita is relevant when we are talking about countries or regions, if not the easy way is to cut the region in 2 and say you have cut emissions by 50%.
The per capita is irrelevant is often used by small countries as an excuse for not doing anything because "they" are so many more than "we", so what "we" do don't change anything
If they build 2 coal plants, we can tear down 4 natural gas plants and still reduce overall emissions. Sure, we may need some rolling blackouts, but such is the price - we'll still live much better than the vast majority of the world.
This will change with more wealth though. We must ensure that future energy hunger in India (and Africa) ist not satiated by fossil fuels.