Model Y is 2 times as expensive as a Corolla.
Plus you can go and find an older Corolla with 100k+ miles on it and pay perhaps $5k cash for it, then drive it for another 50-100k.
I don't see people in the service industry picking up a used Tesla, now or in the foreseeable future.
We are in a huge transition phase, with lots of inflation everywhere. For most people EV are still too expensive or inconvenient [1] and they don't want to buy a new ICE car or start a 5y leasing on a car they may soon not be allowed to use wherever they want.[2] Also they fear they won't be able to resell it. It makes more sense to keep that old, already well depreciated old car or buy a fairly recent second hand ICE, hybrid or EV that has already depreciated a lot.
My only non muscular vehicle right now is an ICE motorbike. There is no way I can afford an EV car and I don't want to deal with an ICE car I won't be able to sell for more than scrap value when EV prices will go down.
[1] if don't have parking space at home.
[2] many big cities have started banning diesel cars in center, will probably do the same for gasoline soon. ICE cars will soon become unsellable.
I've been wondering how many others are frustrated like I am.
I've hit the 10 year mark on my current ICE vehicle, and I sorta assumed EVs would be a lot more common and cheaper now. Even the small vehicles are being sold for luxury prices, and the 7-seaters (which I'm looking at) are priced in the high-end-yesteryear-sports-car tier.
I'm seriously considering just buying a Tahoe or Telluride and waiting another 10 years for an EV.
Not in Europe, I was surprised to read that Dacia Sandero a model designed to be cheap was the best seller this year(in Europe), they also hit record sales last year. There are lot of people that do not have the moneyor do not want to spend it on luxury. (and btw before someone points the bad safety rating of Dacia, most of the bad score is because of missing of modern active safety stuff)
https://www.romania-insider.com/dacia-sandero-best-sold-euro...
I.e. where people would buy a lot more utility cars before, they now buy more expensive bigger cars even if they don't need them. Those buying bigger cars are now buying SUVs.
Dacia ate the market of economy cars of FIAT, SEAT, and Pegeot, while those tried to move up market.
That's also why Dacia has the Duster ("SUV for poors") in their line up.
Purchase price, you've already touched on. You can't even get a USED Tesla for under $20K.
The second problem is charging. Apartments generally have a lack of EV chargers.
That's the trick, people living in apartments are not supposed to own and operate their own cars going forward.
As a live in an apartment myself I wasn't aware of that fact at the beginning, I kept asking myself: "how am I supposed to charge my car if I'm living on the 8th floor?". Turns out I was looking at the whole thing through the wrong lenses.
What's really perverse about it (there's no better word to describe it) is that us, people living in apartments, do currently have a smaller carbon footprint compared to people living in actual houses, and yet we are the ones being punished as a result of measures which are meant to improve our global carbon footprint. So the solution for me, if I'd still want to own a personal car, would be to increase my carbon footprint by moving to an actual house on the ground, preferably in suburbia because cheaper (where there's also no proper public transportation to speak of).
That's such a weird thing to say. What do you mean not supposed to own? For healthy young people - ok, fine, fair enough. How about the disabled? The old and frail? People with kids? People who drive for work? Where are the above meant to park and charge? And please don't say these usecases are going to be replaced with autonomous cars, that's complete nonsense, especially for specific usecases like disabled people who need specially adapted cars.
disincentives work the same way of incentives, but in the opposite direction.
EVs are an hassle to own if you live in a dense urban area, like those you can find in many European cities. I predict many people will give up on owning a car when confronted with the drawbacks.
> like disabled people who need specially adapted cars
disabled people have reserved parking spots, that will eventually be equipped with an EV charger
On the other hand, that's definitely more expensive than street parking and not everyone will be able to afford it, so your statement is overall correct for the majority of people.
assuming you find one at an affordable rate.
Where I live there are no available parking spaces, and parking garages are all fully booked, but even if they weren't, you can't install your own charger.
There are a few properties on sale, but the starting price is around 40 thousand euros for 16 square meters.
And who wants to buy a used Tesla (or any EV) even if the price was competitive?
The range degrades with the battery and replacing it costs more than the car is worth.
For reference, that famous million mile Tesla went through three batteries and eight motors [1].
[1]: https://thedriven.io/2022/06/15/tesla-model-s-owner-passes-i...
As far as we know, the original battery pack had an issue after 290,000 km (180,000 miles) and was replaced under warranty. However, Tesla was initially figuring out the issue and installed a loaner battery, which was used for half a year or 150,000 km (93,000 miles). Then, Tesla installed a new, final battery. We don't have any info about any further replacements, so it might be the first 1 million km battery?
In terms of drive units. The Tesla Model S P85 is a single-motor, rear-wheel-drive car. High power and torque was an issue in the early Teslas, which caused a few motor replacements. Three units were replaced by 680,000 km and the fourth one was running up to 1,000,000 km. We don't have any info on whether anything happened after that.
IIRC, one of the big reasons Teslas are comparatively expensive is because their batteries are gigantic relative to their range. They're basically using a lot of energy from the battery to power cooling systems to keep the battery cool, which means they degrade much more slowly.
You can look up user-generated plots of average battery degradation and see that most Teslas still have 90% of their range after 100k miles.
Other cheaper EVs manage this equation differently and their batteries do degrade more quickly.
If we naively assume that every 21k miles driven drops 1% of capacity, then after another 1 million miles I'll be at 50% capacity. That'd still give me 4x the range I need on a daily basis.
Even if the rate of degradation were 2-3x my estimates, the battery in my car is more likely to allow my car to drive further than even the most babied, well taken care of, internal combustion engine ever could.
Intuitively, I guess most people would certainly be fine charging once a week for half an hour when going out (restaurant, shopping or else), given the average distance driven per week.
https://thedriven.io/2023/04/27/tesla-model-3-total-cost-of-...
And the Model Y is cheaper than the Toyota Rav4 which is in the same category. So cheaper purchase price, and no annual oil changes, cheap miles (at least over in Finland where gas is 2e/liter, 8.14usd/gallon and electricity is around 10euro cents/kwh).
People really need to remember maintenance costs over the ownership period.
In a Tesla all you're really paying for is tyre rotation / alignment / rubber replacements, and air filters. Plus the electricity, in place of fuel. The savings add up significantly.
Not to mention things like tires have a lifespan. Even if they aren't worn out, most tires are not meant to be used for longer than around 5 years. As the rubber ages, its composition changes and it does not perform to the rated specifications. Even cheap tires are $100/ea for everything larger than a subcompact economy car. $400 for tires, divided by 5 years; you get the idea.
Car ownership in America does not need to be expensive, but it's nothing like the European mentality.
I took my car to a mechanic for an unrelated issue and asked them to change the oil and check fluids while they had it in the shop (I bought it about 6 months earlier) and they called to tell me they weren't going to change it because it wasn't necessary and had paperwork to prove it. This was in the Netherlands in a small town. But here I drive my car 50km a week vs 50km a day when I lived in the US.
What? Back when I drove a Corolla (in the U.S.) I never changed my oil more than once a year, and no one ever pestered me about it. Where did you get that?
For this kind of question about maintenance, I wish I could find a histogram or at least quartile summaries of per-vehicle distances per year.
Things like tyres are normally bought part-worn. My last set was $25/tyre, inc fitting, with 5mm tread left. Degradation can be determined by visual inspection - rubber does degrade, but it isn't a safety hazard until there are cracks allowing light to get to the cords in the tyre (light degrades the cords, which is a safety hazard).
Provided Tesla can deliver spare parts, which they frequently can't for months, which is a story in itself (hint: having to support x iterations may work for SW, but not for cars that are on the road for 10+ years)
Does that model also not require oil changes?
Ah yes, the $100 annual cost of oil changes.
EVs are cheaper to maintain, generally. But the Tesla is a premium vehicle for which no after market parts are available, so there's a significant gap there.
I have two ICE vehicles and I change the oil for each myself according to the manufacturers' recommended maintenance schedules. Changing the oil for one car, once, costs $42 for oil and $16 for the filter. The yearly cost for one car with a 7500 mile recommendation is about $116 (two total changes a year typically, though it looks like I did it three times last year for that vehicle).
I've had a Model 3 for 2 years now. Total cost of ownership (excluding insurance and registration fees): $1578. That's ALL costs, including electricity used to charge the battery. The majority of those costs: a set of new tires at $1050.
As far as a lack of after market parts go: what parts would you expect to see on the after market? The things one needs to buy for a Tesla are represented quite well in the after market. Tires, brake pads, cabin air filters - plenty to choose from, and widely available at any auto parts store. Tell me more about this "significant gap" of after market parts.
I change my tires every 20,000-25,000 kms
for me it means every 3 years
my car runs on LPG, which is half the price of gas
Never ever done any particular kind of maintenance in over 10 years.
You can buy 6-7 brand new "my cars" with the money spent on a Tesla.
Yes, it's a cheap car, I chose it exactly because it's cheap and robust, I use it in a city, I park it on the road, there's no need for a >45k car, I would argue it's borderline stupid to buy a very expensive EV to drive it in a city.
EVs are expensive by default, their TCO might be lower in perfect ideal scenarios, until you run into an issue, most of the cost is due the complexity, non-EV cars are much much much dumber and simpler.
You can't independently fix an EV, there's no way.
You can buy it new for 7,300 euros taxes included in Italy.
Full optional.
I change oil more or less every 20,000 kms, which is more than two years driving for me.
I change it myself, I only need to buy the oil that costs about 20-25 euros for a full change.
Other than that, the car is basically maintenance free.
What people really need to do is the actual calculation, instead of saying things like "the Tesla will make it up over its lifespan". Will it, really?
The difference between a model Y and Corolla is, what, $10k-15k? That is a huge difference to make up. Most of the maintenance requirements a ICE has are required by an EV, too (less oil changes). Parts are way more expensive on the Tesla than the Toyota.
Oh, and do you think that governments are going to just let EVs operate on subsidized electricity forever? No, they will directly tax it in the future. Meanwhile, gasoline prices could decrease over time as the world transitions to greener sources. After all, have to pump the oil (increase supply) while it has value.
TL;DR People who buy a Tesla to "save money" are likely in for a shock.
You've expressed this idea about parts a few times in this thread, yet haven't actually proven that.
How about some comparisons of what some parts, common to both a Model Y and a Corolla, cost?
I'll give it a shot:
A control arm for a 2022 Model Y: about $150. A control arm for a 2022 Corolla: about $150.
Rear door window glass for a 2022 Model Y: about $190. Rear door window glass for a 2022 Corolla: about $190.
Hood for a 2022 Model Y: about $500. Hood for a 2022 Corolla: about $477.
I'm not even cherry picking - literally just thinking of a part and searching for prices. Without a doubt, there are parts on a Tesla that cost a lot more than the same part on a Corolla, but I haven't found them.
Point is: you're incorrect when you repeat the myth that Tesla parts are any more expensive than any other vehicle of the same model year. Most parts cost the same.
Bigger point: of the parts most frequently replaced on a ICE vehicle, the Tesla typically doesn't have those same parts. Fan belts, fuel injectors, timing belts, clutches, valves, alternators, and so on.
TL;DR People who buy a Tesla to "save money" are likely saving money.
But yeah, Tesla’s interior build quality is not really comparable with other luxury cars.
Which only makes this even more remarkable. What's going to happen when the Tesla 2 comes out and sells for the same price as a Corolla?
Nobody wants to sell electric cars for cheap, why throw away the margins you can get by selling them for more?
I don’t see a great opportunity for them to lower costs more on a cheaper model. Tesla already went through the exercise of making the cheaper version and people are paying premium prices for it anyway.
Of course, additional supply should normally decrease prices, but maybe there’s something weird going on. Here are some possible mechanisms I dreamed up:
1. Could the various manufacturers (collectively bringing lots of cash to break into the business) be bidding up the cost of some inputs? If high demand allows the market to bear higher prices, maybe everyone just ends up paying more?
2. As EV moves from “government environmental policy compliance program” to “luxury essential”, the types of cars on the market change. Just because it’s technically possible to make a cheap EV, doesn’t mean they will be readily available. By analogy, air-conditioned seats are no engineering marvel, but are usually only offered in upmarket vehicles, probably as a type of price discrimination.
Which makes it that much more impressive that the Model Y outsells the Corolla...
if there were, Corolla would outsell Tesla Y by a large margin.
For example:
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/
https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/en/road/Vehicles/bonus-mal...
https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/france-rese...
https://www.idealista.it/en/news/financial-advice-italy/2022...