Germany Falls into Recession
cnn.com
cnn.com
The median living standard in Germany has been in free fall for 20 years. By that criterion, the country (like many other Western countries) has been in a continuous recession since 9/11. By macroeconomic numbers, however, Germany has experienced several booms in between, which can easily be used to create the (intentionally) misleading narrative that "the economy" (insofar as it affects the median individual) is "sometimes up, sometimes down", when in reality there has been a continuous downtrend for a very long time.
You may be objectively correct about all of this but right now it doesn't come off that way to me.
The latter is predictable in a developed country (meaning past peak GDP growth) with high social safety nets and employee protection (meaning an additional burden for newer entrants to clear).
I'm not sure about "free fall", but the median worker's earnings has basically broken even since the 80s or so, with a definite noticeable downward trend since the 2000s.
[0]: https://labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.10...
I can't speak for Germany, but for the US, worker earnings continue to climb if you count government mediated benefits.
Similarly, it's impossible for worker income to grow at the rate of GDP while taxes grow faster than GDP
If you look at the US, inflation adjusted Government spending tripled between 2000 and 2022. Do people feel that they are getting 300% more services for the taxes 300% higher than 20 years ago. Schools, roads, healthcare, and prisons certainly aren't 3X better.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/Oc...
I thought counting medical inflation as a salary increase only changed the threshold from 90% to 80% of workers seeing wage contraction over the last 40 years.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/12/calomiris-on-gram...?
When you see those numbers about wage stagnation it always comes down to three big questions:
1) Are transfers & taxes included 2) Do you calculate the value of the transfer at the cost the government spent, or the utility received 3) What inflation metric you use
> The median living standard in Germany has been in free fall for 20 years.
Is that a qualitative assessment or a quantitative assessment?
If the later, what metric do you use?
Stagflation https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp
Gini index (coefficient) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gini-index.asp
??
With a world moving away from ICE to EV, and with Chinese brands winning at home and abroad, it presents a double whammy nightmare for Germany. Lowered exports to China, plus lowered exports in other markets. And this is all on top of energy prices from the fallout of the conflict in Ukraine, the shut down of nuclear power thanks to the Greens and the geopolitical tensions between the West and China.
While Germany's economic model has served it well during an era of a rising China, it may not be the case in a era of a risen China.
[1] China’s carmakers outstrip foreign brands in its electric vehicle boom https://www.ft.com/content/dd149923-1c5d-4e5e-8be6-d979aa48a...
[2] Big drop in German exports to China raises fears over EU’s economic powerhouse https://www.ft.com/content/3034d39c-118a-44d3-b9bf-6482b7860...
[3] Can Volkswagen win back China? https://www.ft.com/content/afad4566-6404-483e-934f-c905507bf...
The decision to shut down our nuclear reactors came from a conservative government, where the greens were in the opposition.
The prices have not been rising due to the shutdown of our nuclear plants, but due to price gauging by electrical companies, and due to russia falling away as a cheap gas supplier.
Nuclear only made up 5% of our energy production 2023 and 11% in 2021, with ~4.3Gw and ~8.5Gw respectively. Germany installed 7.2Gw of PV and ~2.4Gw of Wind in 2022. Replacing our entire nuclear capacity with renewables within a single year.
The conservative government of the last 20 years spend an insane amount of effort to stop renewables by limiting the yearly installed PV capacity by law, and introducing NIMBY friendly limitations on where wind turbines can be build, bloating the documents required for clearance from a couple dozen pages to a full binder.
The conservative government were also the ones starting the NordStream projects and overseeing their construction. They are directly culpable for our dependence on russia.
The greens have to spend a lot of effort on reversing those legislations, and they had to do this in addition to handling the Ukraine crisis, and while constantly fighting a conservative/neoliberal party that is part of the government but has made it their stated goal to sabotage everything the greens propose. (They are basically a lobby arm of the german car industry, with several scandals.)
The fact that they managed to push for this much renewable energy, and for this much energy independence is a small miracle tbh.
Also if the conservatives hadn't sabotaged our "Energiewende" and had guided our car industry towards EV, we wouldn't have the issues you pointed out.
The conservative party was in government when that decisions was made, yes, but this discounts the decades of Greens opposition to nuclear power, and crucially that the strong Greens showing in the Baden-Württemberg elections in 2011.
Without the greens there would have been no impetus to shut down domestic nuclear power.
Ah yes I don't think that this works that way
This seems irrelevant to nuclear decommissioning (and pricing). Both can be true. More importantly, since you seem to think that renewables are a cheap replacement for existing nuclear (i think both can easily coexist), do you have any numbers that manufacturing, installing and operating brand new renewables capacity is cheaper than the old nuclear that has already been built? (where most of its cost comes from, already paid decades ago)
Wrong. The nuclear phase-out original came from SPD/Greens:
> https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomkonsens
> The prices have not been rising due to the shutdown of our nuclear plants, but due to price gauging by electrical companies, and due to russia falling away as a cheap gas supplier.
They have not been rising since last month, but that's not really a reliable statistics.
After all, the German Ministry of Economics is working on a law to subsidize electricity prices for the industry. They wouldn't do that if electricity was cheap.
> Nuclear only made up 5% of our energy production 2023 and 11% in 2021, with ~4.3Gw and ~8.5Gw respectively. Germany installed 7.2Gw of PV and ~2.4Gw of Wind in 2022. Replacing our entire nuclear capacity with renewables within a single year.
Nuclear provides baseload, wind and solar don't.
In fact, since 2022, Germany returned 19 coal-fired power units with a capacity of 7.3 GW to the electricity market:
> https://www.smard.de/home/rueckkehr-von-kohlekraftwerken-an-...
> The conservative government of the last 20 years spend an insane amount of effort to stop renewables by limiting the yearly installed PV capacity by law, and introducing NIMBY friendly limitations on where wind turbines can be build, bloating the documents required for clearance from a couple dozen pages to a full binder.
That's non-sense. Germany built more wind and solar capacity per capita the past 20 years than any other country in the world.
Even one of the strongest EE lobbyists in Germany, Volker Quaschning, admitted that:
> https://twitter.com/VQuaschning/status/1626149341730639872
> The conservative government were also the ones starting the NordStream projects and overseeing their construction. They are directly culpable for our dependence on russia.
That's a blatant lie. That project was started by SPD/Greens and the Greens even defended it against criticism:
> https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/15/15186.pdf (p. 10)
> https://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/news/nord-stream-juergen-tri...
> https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/russland-juergen-...
> The greens have to spend a lot of effort on reversing those legislations, and they had to do this in addition to handling the Ukraine crisis, and while constantly fighting a conservative/neoliberal party that is part of the government but has made it their stated goal to sabotage everything the greens propose. (They are basically a lobby arm of the german car industry, with several scandals.)
The Greens have always been fighting nuclear in Germany. So much, that they even preferred subsidizing coal:
> https://dserver.bundestag.de/btd/10/014/1001407.pdf
> https://dserver.bundestag.de/btd/11/056/1105633.pdf
> The fact that they managed to push for this much renewable energy, and for this much energy independence is a small miracle tbh.
What energy independence? Are you aware of the fact that the current coalition has new gas plants in their coalition agreement:
> https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/974430/1990812/... (p. 58)
And the Greens even have it in their election program:
> https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/Wahlprogramm-DIE-GRU... (p. 24)
And even the government's own planning agency for the energy transition is projecting that we need lots of gas power plants:
> https://www.dena.de/fileadmin/dena/Dokumente/Pdf/9262_dena-L... (p. 29)
> Also if the conservatives hadn't sabotaged our "Energiewende" and had guided our car industry towards EV, we wouldn't have the issues you pointed out.
The only parties that have sabotaged Germany's electricity grid and climate goals are the Greens with their owngoing FUD campaigns against nuclear power.
I'm really surprised how one can put so much disinformation into a single comment post.
> That's non-sense. Germany built more wind and solar capacity per capita the past 20 years than any other country in the world.
How is "but we built more than others" an argument against "CDU/CSU actively worked against renewable energies by implementing 10H"?
The phase out in it's current form was decided by a CDU led government.
"Chancellor Merkel was so shocked by Fukushima that she turned Germany’s energy focus from nuclear (of which she closed 41% and will close the rest within a decade) to efficiency and renewables."
> After all, the German Ministry of Economics is working on a law to subsidize electricity prices for the industry. They wouldn't do that if electricity was cheap.
Nobody said that electricity was cheap, but that the cause wasn't the 5% nuclear going offline.
> Nuclear provides baseload, wind and solar don't.
Baseload is such a dead horse. Renewables are cheaper even with batteries included.
>In fact, since 2022, Germany returned 19 coal-fired power units with a capacity of 7.3 GW to the electricity market:
Yeah to offset Russian gas. We haven't increased coal/lignite production either, and considering that lignite is pretty much burned immediately that's a good indicator that the missing nuclear wasn't offset with coal. You can actually use the very tool you linked (https://www.smard.de/) to see pretty clearly that the phaseout of nuclear didn't increase energy production from coal plants.
> That's non-sense. Germany built more wind and solar capacity per capita the past 20 years than any other country in the world.
Still far below what would have been possible without the "Solardeckel" and the "Altmeier Dip".
> That's a blatant lie. That project was started by SPD/Greens and the Greens even defended it against criticism:
Nordstream planning started in 1997, when Kohl was still Chancelor.
The Greens should have stopped it when they had the chance though instead of blindly hopping onto the bandwagon.
Note that there is not much difference between SPD and CDU to me personally. I consider both conservative parties, opposed to the goals of the greens. The SPD is only less obviously evil than the CDU.
> The Greens have always been fighting nuclear in Germany.
Believe it or not, the new generation of greens would actually prefer Nuclear to Coal if it was cheaper than renewables, but it isn't so they push for renewables. In a sense the present day greens are not really the ones that governed 20 years ago. I hate most greens from that time period with a passion for example, them killing the transrapid is unforgivable for me personally.
> What energy independence?
We managed to get through winter without shortages didn't we?
> And the Greens even have it in their election program:
"New gas utilities and infrastructure needed for the coal-exit must only be build if it is absolutely unavoidable, and if it is build in a Hydrogen ready way."
It's amazing how you read some kind of gas love from this when in reality it's saying the exact opposite, even arguing that gas is only allowed when it can be switched to clean hydrogen for BaSElOaD later.
> The only parties that have sabotaged Germany's electricity grid and climate goals are the Greens with their owngoing FUD campaigns against nuclear power.
Not even Siemens wants to build new Nuclear plants because they are more expensive and take longer to build than simply rolling out renewables.
Would nuclear have been great if we never stopped investing into them, had fast breeder reactors, and didn't loose the knowhow to build them? Maybe. But as is, it's much cheaper, easier, quicker, and more scalable to just throw our entire weight behind renewables.
> I'm really surprised how one can put so much disinformation into a single comment post.
Pot calling the cattle black it guess.
We will need to build up 5x of the required peak capacity with renewables in Germany per Fraunhofer.
After we have installed about 6x (!) of our peak capacity in renewables and gas, we will still emit about 150g/kWh on average of CO2 - which is more than twice of France.
This is so ridiculous. Electricity prices will increase insanely - e.g., installing 600% of the required capacity isn’t exactly resourceful. But that isn’t what matters here: it’s ideology we are after, right? Having the right ideology.
German car makers got lazy with research and development. In addition, they were hesitant to give up their investment in ICE production, risk staff reductions, and corresponding political and strike problems. This lead to most of the knowledge around EVs being developed and patented elsewhere, especially battery knowledge is firmly in Chinese hands.
At the same time the grandparent is also right, China wisely required knowledge transfers (in the form of forced joint ventures) in exchange for production and sales licenses. German car makers stupidly and greedily agreed, providing the Chinese with valuable knowledge about all the other parts of a car.
Both those mistakes now mean that Chinese companies have all the necessary patents and knowledge, as well as experience, for building EVs. Whereas German car makers will need to buy, license and beg for parts in China.
Not to mention that production in China will of course always be cheaper, and bureaucracy easier in the relevant circumstances.
Do you have any source where I can read more about this?
And even the new VW cars sold in Russia are now Chinese-built versions imported without VW's consent.
While I'm sure the actual Chinese brands will catchup the German are also not sitting still. VW is going strong on EVs and other brands are not far behind.
If we look at the issues Tesla has with quality control the Germans are still coming from a position of strength, even if they are ICE specialists.
The construction economy is really going dow from mid 2023, everyone has trouble finding projects while the money are kept by the people in banks and not released out of the uncertainty.
However, German economy is so diverse that it will absorb this as well.
I also wonder if people who are in a position to sell our build houses will try (and maybe even succeed?) to sit this out or whether we will see a downward trend in prices again.
Since the mortgage is fixed, these wage gains don't even need to be "real" (positive when inflation adjusted).
> I also wonder if people who are in a position to sell our build houses will try (and maybe even succeed?) to sit this out or whether we will see a downward trend in prices again.
You can't time the market. It's so difficult to predict what is going to happen in the future with any degree of certainty. Also, where are you going to live in the mean time?
Lots of people were burned in 2014-now by assuming the housing market was going to "collapse any minute now" then watching the exact opposite happen. It's as if they thought 2008 was some kind of regular occurrence and not a black swan event.
To be fair to those people, the extra low interest rates of 2014-2022 were the historical black swan event which everyone expected to last a couple of years at most and not a decade, but the banks left the money printer running for too long and now we're facing the inflation fallout.
Rates were never in history so low as post 2008. Why would any sane person expect them to last so long?
I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.
Curious how does federal govt subsidize them?
How does high prices help the people govt is trying to help. All this makes no sense to me. why are they doing this.
Through the VA Loan, FHA Federal Home Loan, and USDA Rural Loan programs.
> Cheap 30y fixed rate home loans are an American thing. The federal government subsidizes them.
This statement sounded like 3oy fixed rate is possible only because of fed govt. meaning if its wasn't for fed govt subsidies 30yr fixed rate wouldn't have been possible.
FHA alone accounts for something like 1/5-1/4 of all home mortgages, varying slightly over time; and, its entire purpose was to shift the whole market (which it did).
Yeah when I asked (in France) about variable rates to a credit guy recently he looked at me like I was an alien. They probably still exist, but the loan-happy people won't even try to sell them, to me at least.
Average 30 year mortgage is paid off in 11 years.
In the beginning of the mortgage, the principal is higher, thus the interest portion is higher. In the first five years of a thirty year mortgage, a very small percentage goes towards the principal.
Assuming a thirty year fixed rate mortgage and a 7.5% interest rate, less than 15% of the mortgage payments in the first five years go to paying down the principal [1].
[1] https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/amortization-calculator/
Many Swiss have fairly dangerous interest rate exposure (to the SNB) based on the assumption that it will continue selling francs to keep exchange rates more competitive, etc.
That will be true … until it isn’t…
And, I'll eat my hat if we don't get back to ZIRP sometime in the next 10 years.
Your pay goes up. It just goes up 4% per year, while inflation goes up 10%. This does mean your loan becomes 4% "less" per year. It's just Big Macs go up 6%, making your pay worth less Big Macs. But your pay still becomes worth more loan repayments. The big increase only applies to new loans.
I would also like to point out that at 4% per year pay increases, houses become worth that amount less per year, for the same dollar amount. That means they "drop" 20% in price over 5 years.
If you're on a fixed 15-year or 30-year then inflation is generally working in your favor.
Salaries not going up is not directly related to mortgages, and while I can't speak to all jobs, has been pretty good in the STEM field.
Overall, that has a significant damping effect on the effects of changing interest rates.
There are mortgages with yearly adjustments, but those are rare afaik.
I'm really shocked whenever I hear someone has an ARM again. 2008 wasn't that long ago!
But there was also a rather steep hike in (mostly greed-caused) inflation of everyday goods and energy prices, official overall rate was slightly above 10%, but for foodstuffs it went above 20% inflation. At the same time, wages didn't keep up, raises were below 10%, often below 5%. Inflation-corrected disposable income went down roughly 10%. So consumers also have less money to spend on their day-to-day needs and of course reallocated all the spending on "extras" (like luxury items, organic foods, leisure), to the basics (energy and less expensive basic nutrition). Which can be seen e.g. at energy providers raking in the profits while e.g. gastronomy is in a bad place.
The energy companies are now planing to reduce the costs with as much as 25% from next month, since the marked is now flooded with gas and renewables ( a lof of new wind parks and solar installation will go online the next month ).
I honestly I do not know why the interest rates went up. If someone can explain the correlation with the energy price, please do.
The part in square brackets is yet to come.
The banks will reinvest this money. (Cf Fractional-reserve banking).
Only if there is demand for the money at a high interest rate. The credit boom is dependent on the borrower as well.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/inside-germanys-indust...
The pandemic shutdowns caused pent-up demand that became time-shifted, causing anomalously high results for that time period, and so year-over-year numbers a year later look worse. For the US, that happened starting in summer 2021, and thus we had that apparent recession in 2022 as those numbers were compared to 2021's artificially high baseline. The same is now happening for Germany, since the shutdowns lifted later in most of Europe, such that the early-2022 numbers had that time-shifted effect so that the early-2023 numbers seem to look bad.
(To illustrate the point: remember the "great resignation"? That wasn't a real effect, that was a statistical artifact of pent-up demand for normal job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic.)
For a real comparison, compare this year's numbers to 2019 and you'll see that economic growth looks fairly normal for a four-year period.
It's as if a single currency and a single central bank for 25 different economies with different levels of debt, doesn't really work that well in every situation.
> At the same time there's high inflation in Austria
Inflation in Austria is now mostly due to greedflation. If you cross the border into Germany the same goods are suddenly cheaper.
Economists in the EU must have understood this and if I had to guess they assumed a fiscal union would develop at some point?
They almost certainly did, there are two other groups who may not have done - European politicians ... and European voters.
Although it's more likely that politicians did understand it, but were reluctant to talk about, at least in front of the voters.
Even a country like Greece. As bad as the single currency was for Greece, outside the EU and Eurozone, Greece could very likely have been closer to Venezuela with even fewer resource wealth to benefit from.
Except Italy alas.
That's why we have this massive inflation. No real value is created, yet everybody is flush with the money. Pandemic was just a perfect excuse for BS that is brewing since at least 08 crisis.
Indeed. Most of EU's economic growth since the 2008 crash was just printing money and propping up assets. A bunch of wealthy boomers buying expensive houses from one another does not mean actual economic prosperity.
We just printed our way into prosperity but Covid supply chain disruptions, the energy shortage, and the Ukraine conflict exposed the EU emperor had no clothes.
Who cares if everybody and his or her dog can discuss emotional intelligence, yet we end up relying on China more and more? Both to import crucial stuff and export crappy extravaganza nobody else is buying.
The green whatever plan is great example. Let's fuck over our farmers and kick out remaining manufacturing. Just to pretend we're soooo environment-friendly. And then import fuckton of stuff from far away. Thankfully there will be CO2 import tax. But CO2 regulations is not the only thing curbing local economies while faking low CO2 reports in far away countries may be a lucrative industry...
But maybe that's worth it, or maybe the Brexit will turn out great like pg said due to them not having stringent EU-type regulations on things like AI and banking (though if you're a founder leaving the EU i don't see why you'd go to the UK over the US or Canada).
Italy and Spain are heavily based on tourism and snobbery (e.g. high fashion). They ain't competing against US/China/India. And that's OK. But they need different economical policies than, for example, Germany.
This has limitations and reduces how analogous it can be to the US' and its member states.
The major difference between states is tax rates. Labor, transacting, anything else economically is practically transparent and frictionless.
Also tax spending. For example there's no central EU funded military but each member budgets it differently, just like how there's no New York military and Pennsylvania military.
Gas prices have already dropped to a level where it is slowly getting in the range of pre-covid
A recession helps controlling inflation...
then why am I being asked to bail out a generation's college loans?
then why is food bank use at an all time high?
then why are more six-figure earners reporting to be living paycheck-to-paycheck?
then why is personal credit card debt at an all time high?
Wouldn't that fit perfectly with the comment you're responding to? Because the money is there. In fact I'd expect us to be bailing people out as we get richer. Less govern
> then why is food bank use at an all time high?
Food insecurity is no where near an all time high. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/fo...
So perhaps there are just more people! (Anything can be an "all time high" or "record X" if you ignore this fact). Or local trust in food banks has risen. Or food banks have more money now to hand out more food.
> then why are more six-figure earners reporting to be living paycheck-to-paycheck?
Because the popular report you're citing here, sponsored by lending service LendingClub, includes buying groceries on a credit card as "living paycheck to paycheck" even if you're paying it off each month and only doing it for the points.
> then why is personal credit card debt at an all time high?
Because there are more people! Or are you actually talking about debt as a percent of income which is a more realistic stat? Because people spend less on their debt now than almost ever. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
Because handing out money tend to give votes.
because the previous generations fucked it up and pulled the ladders up behind them.
However, alternatives are readily available. Inland areas beyond the coastlines offer affordable living and plentiful housing.
this lecture is better pointed at the naive.. look at system rules in place, benefiting "stall" politics and high tax on labor, local govt zoning, and access to capital projects. You explain to me how "Noah's Bagels" makes multi-hundred franchise with high-end remodelling, to sell bagels. A person "exercising personal initiative" goes out of business in less than half a year! Also construction contractors..
hollow platitudes work when the system is flush.. dont be surprised to get serious pushback with that
For the individual, the only realistic option is out-migration to lower density areas.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Ne...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Ca...
Neither of those claims are supported by those links (and even the control that actually is shown by those links may be misleading, in that it ignores things like “controlling all of the separately elected executive offices and having majorities in both houses of the legislature is insufficient to govern California since it takes a legislative supermajority to make tax changes that involve any increases, and, prior to 2014, to even pass an annual budget”.)
In any case, the fact that that situation is even possible is support enough for folks to move to lower density areas.
But enough about government subsidies given to Elon!
- Whenever I had the chance to talk to „leadership“ people about the lack of progress in transforming energy production towards renewables they were essentially telling me “all is good, we have a great deal with Gasprom, they will always deliver because we’re too important for them”
- Whenever I asked about things digital and a lack of local Cloud providers and expertise in Software Engineering: “we have excellent education (we don’t) and look, when there’s the time we will be excellent in shipping great software with our products. The market just doesn’t require it yet (about 10y ago)”
- “China needs us as much as we need them. Look at the import/export fraction to China in recent years”
- “Look we are world class with out ICE tech. Why would we give that up for stupid electro?”
And so on.. German politicians were stupid enough to follow the lobbying and public opinions. Meanwhile even German conservatives that used to be halfway reliable start campaigning using fake news and drive cultural wars. Chancellor Scholz publicly stated that Germany has a new Wirtschaftswunder in nearsight “because of all the work that needs to be done” (lol)
The overall level of subsidy-dependence in the economy is so large that no new undertaking will be done without a corresponding subsidy of some kind. Where an American might look for venture capital, a European (and especially a German) will look for a government subsidy program. Any industry that doesn't look for and mold itself along those subsidies will be leaving money on the table, therefore becoming uncompetitive. That means that all our industry will always be shaped by political programs and will always lag years behind the rest of the world.
The chain will always be:
foreign company does new thing X -> X looks good -> EU/German politician envies X -> subsidies for X -> EU/German industry does X in the exact size and amount of the subsidies.
And of course each of those arrows will be a year or more.
Since covid, rents increases have far outpaced salary increases. And since 2022 so have bill, groceries, everything.
But then again so is most of Europe.
Same story in the US.
I think part of the problem is that people see rates of inflation in the news, but their mind thinks in terms of cumulative inflation. They think, "housing has gone up 30% since before the pandemic but the government says inflation is only 9%." Even though, 9% inflation per year over 3 years is 30% total.
Then there's the fact that inflation stats are an average of a "basket of goods". So housing might go up 15%, but that's offset by other items going up 2%. Then there is regional factors, and how inflation is mentally sticky (i.e., people making jokes about the price of eggs, even though wholes prices are down 80% over the past 4 months).
But the big conglomerates that own all the branded products saw an opportunity to jack up prices without taking all the heat.
Speaking of which, if you grab a package of mccormick's chili seasoning off the shelf in your store, it will tell you to buy a 15 oz can of tomatoes. Cans of tomatoes have been 14.5oz for at least a decade, and this seasoning product has had that recipe on the back changed at least 4 times in as many years, yet they never admit to the shrinkflation that happened to those cans of tomatoes.
Comic: //i.ibb.co/ScZWgLt/938-ALLES-apr-15-FINAL-Mail.png
regards...
Title: Dishonest
Could you explain this to me? Government and media are talking about low inflation, but what I am seeing is that prices are exploding.
...they lie, by deliberately calculating incorrectly or sometimes even skipping details. The bad thing is,
it doesn't just happen here. Everywhere in the world all central banks seem to be doing it.
Through their dishonesty they give themselves more opportunities for influence..
...Balances are inflated..
...to trick a part of the population and to make them believe things would get better..
...while the standard of living is moving in another direction..
through highs and lows! You know that. You have to learn to talk to the subordinates to keep them optimistic...
A while back someone unironically described Germany's nuclear power policy as "the single most catastrophic decision ever made by any government in peacetime".
German here. Accurate description if you ask me. It's one of the dumbest and most irrational decisions ever made in energy politics. It's completely inexcusable.
Germany is repeating the same mistake because of pride. If there are still talks about needing to use fossil fuels to bridge the gap introduced by eliminating nuclear, then eliminating nuclear was clearly the wrong move. The reactors should be maintained, upgraded, and worked on so that there's a lot of employment and a lot of clean, independent energy.
But the actual point is that people who rage about shutting off nuclear plants, usually don't bring these arguments, and don't care for the environment. Many of the more vocal ones somehow have adopted the mindset that environmentalists aim to destroy modern society, because they are against cars and harmful industry, so they want to reset everything into a medieval state. And nowadays, they seem to drift very hard into arguments of the "Great Reset" conspiracy and the like. And one result of this thinking is to be against everything which their enemies want, and support all of what their enemies hate, like nuclear plants.
So, what I mean to say is, there is a loud group of people who support nuclear plants, because they hate environmentalist for whatever reason, not the other way around. And while not all supporter of nuclear plants are from that group, it seems to be at the moment the msot vocal group.
The push for "we shouldn't do renewables, because they can't do the job, so we should invest in nuclear" is about taking the wind out of renewable's sails. Even if we turn around today and start building a hundred nuclear plants all over the world, it will take decades for them to come online and start displacing fossil fuel energy production, meaning a long delay until fossil fuels stop putting billions into the pockets of certain people. They do this because even at the half assed effort we have now, renewable power generation is increasing by tens of terawatts per year in germany alone.
This is why the same people who DGAF about all the carbon we release into the atmosphere and all the pollution we dump into rivers suddenly "care" about "windmills kill birds", why conservative states like Florida, with ample sun, continue to push for laws that screw over home solar.
Nuclear is mostly carbon neutral energy, which is great, but if we wanted to solve climate change with nuclear energy, we needed to start building it in the 70s, when all the pushback happened. Unlike most other situations, the second best time to build nuclear is not today. Maybe it will be good to have it in the mix in the future, but we can't let it distract us from the renewable energy sources that have the potential to decarbonize our world before even the first new nuclear plant could come online.
It also might not even be cost competitive anyway.
A. Construction start to finish is well under a decade.
B. This concern is true of any alternative energy source.
> The push for "we shouldn't do renewables, because they can't do the job, so we should invest in nuclear" is about taking the wind out of renewable's sails.
The push against nuclear is to line the pockets of renewable companies, and exploits the layman's misunderstanding about environment impact of nuclear and its alternatives.
There are just as many manipulative, disingenous arguments by Big Oil as by Big Renewable.
Tesla has $100B+ bigger market cap than any "Big Oil" company.
There's no political party left you could vote for if you are in favor of nuclear.
America at least had a great chance to invest in nuclear energy and completely end dependence on the middle east for it's energy, but it chose Reagan instead.
It wasn't their decision, the reactors had to shut down anyway for at least some years, as they are lacking fuel and an up-to-date operating permit. The remaining reactors were already running on their last ounce, and it would take some years to produce new rods at Russia, even if we ignore the political problems.
And that's even ignoring the billions(?) of euro for penalties that Germany likely had to pay in that case, because the whole shutdown was executed somewhat shaky from the old government.
Just like we tax things at different rates, we may want to require mortgage lending at different rates, maybe a bit higher if necessary. I don't think that exists, but I could be wrong.