That has nothing to do with the law of large numbers. That's just discrete and strictly monotonic growth hitting any upper bound eventually.
What a bullshitter.
> ... strictly monotonic growth ...
Their growth is hardly "strictly monotonic" since their growth can fluctuate up and down, as can their subscriber count.
Come on, thats a fallacy right there. One of the classic ones right? Instead of countering the argument by the opponent, you just pick one little part that you can nit-pick some element of and attack that instead.
Suuurrreee... the law of large numbers isn't a thing. So what?
> What a bullshitter.
Hm.
Call it whatever you want, secundum quid, inductive fallacy, faulting forecasting... who cares.
There's a point being made here and it's got nothing to do with the specifics of what the curve is called.
It was bad, incorrect and incompetent forecasting to speculate that sudden sharp trends will continue as the 'new normal'. That's what people did, and it's blown up in their faces.
The point being made by this article is not that a bunch of people screwed up, it is:
> Your job isn't to assume things will always continue just as great as they are now. Your job is to be realistic about the future and position your company for whatever comes next.
Doesn't seem that unreasonable.
Seems like the sort of thing a whole lot of people in senior roles could have done a better job at.
Seems like advice that people right now should be paying attention to.