The big question is whether Podman Desktop will be (a) stable and not a memory-hog, (b) make container workflows on Mac/Windows as simple (conceptually at least) as on Linux, and (c) be a sustainable effort for the community that's still extremely Red Hat-centric.
To that last point, I still see very little adoption outside of the Red Hat ecosystem. It seems like `docker-ce` is still installed on most servers, `docker-compose` for lightweight app orchestration, and when people use Kubernetes, few people know or care what underlying container management daemon is running.