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Comment by andrewclunn | Hacker News Reader

I have a bet going with a co-worker regarding the state of this conflict by the end of the year. He gets his information from what would generally be considered "reputable mainstream sources" and I from the "darkweb underbelly" of the internet. It'll be an interesting test to see if I have been able to discern between the truth and misinfo, and whether the institutions behind his sources do a better job at vetting information, or are just propaganda mouthpieces. He thinks Russia is about to lose handedly, I believe large swaths of Eastern Ukraine will effectively be part of Russia going forward. We put some money down. Time to see which epistemological approach wins out.

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You're probably getting downvoted because betting is pretty darn cynical. But I also follow some of the Russian & Ukrainian propaganda sources to contrast it with Western media. While 80% of the time it's total garbage, they are often several days - even weeks ahead on certain stories. And some stories never even make it to mainstream media. The key is to know what to ignore (i.e., jingoistic bantering, etc) and what to pay attention to (photos, videos). It's also not for the faint of heart. Lot's of people getting killed, dead bodies, fresh graveyards, etc. I often have to take breaks from looking at it.

What I've found to understand is that Western media actual represents most facts. Ukraine media often understates Russian success. While Russia media always overstates their success. The regular media then usually gets the story right.

Also, video's of fighting and people dying isn't very informing, they are too situational and too local.

Lesson of the day, both UKR and RUS media are not very trustworthy. It's gotten to a point where I've stopped investing in it.

By the end of 2023? What did you agree on for the definitions of "lose handily", "large swaths of Eastern Ukraine", and "effectively part of Russia"?

From a long term perspective, Russia has already lost handily - the cratering of the male fighting-age population (either from casualties or from fleeing the country) will be nearly impossible to recover from.

They also ejected much of the intelligentsia from the country who had the means to leave.

Russia has done that before though...

Yes. It's not like Putin's playbook is new.

> the cratering of the male fighting-age population (either from casualties or from fleeing the country) will be nearly impossible to recover from.

This is happening to Ukraine as well. Ukrainians are not having children right now.

> This is happening to Ukraine as well. Ukrainians are not having children right now.

Even before the war, they weren't having very many. Now they're having even less.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-...

"End of the year" is far too soon for that one, I think. Simply on linear progress I wouldn't expect Ukraine to be back to the start of 2022 until after then, and Crimea and Donetsk/Luhansk are going to take longer.

The F/16 deal is evidence towards the idea that the war is settling in to be a long one.

There are plenty of balanced and perceptive people in the mainstream. For example, Fukuyama recently argued for Ukraine to let Donbas go, focus on retaking Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, then use NATO membership and their position around Crimea to disincentivize further Russian attacks [1]. (Viscerally I would prefer a sweeping Ukrainian victory retaking all occupied territory, but retaking Donbas and Crimea would be "hugging a hornet's nest" even if it could be done.)

I think predictive success is more down to the person sorting the info than the source. I ignore most of the war of words and focus on the territory changes. Maps are more honest.

[1] https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/nato-membership-for...

Sounds to me like you’re friend is the sucker at this particular poker table. Seems like you’ve got this one in the bag, regardless of where he gets his news.

Congrats on the favorable terms of your best, I guess.

What happens if part of Russia get occupied by Ukraine, like what is reportedly starting to happen now in Belgorod?.

If I was doing something this sick I would not be posting about it under my real name got damn.

It may look crass, but putting money on the line means there is price for hot air, thus hopefully the people involved will do more research and think a bit more deeply. If you're not willing to put serious cash down on a position, you are in some sense implying little confidence in that position.

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