You had me at the start but lost me here. That’s not speculation, that’s a fact. Some big shorters of the 2008 crisis almost went broke waiting for the market to catch up.
> Some big shorters of the 2008 crisis almost went broke waiting for the market to catch up.
At what point are you a successful predictor of the 2008 crisis vs. a guy who just shorted the economy in 2006?
[0]: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/08/recessions_ofte.htm...
But never discount the possibly of spherical cows in a vacuum.
soo now we've moved from "take advantage of investors being stupid by trading against it inidivudally" to "accomplish a FAR HARDER task by modeling the whole market". Cool cool, moving goalposts for days.
Calling certain investors stupid is hardly contradicting the idea that the market as a whole will sort itself out in the end.