I dont think people comprehend how deep the economic issues of britain are.
Throw in Brexit, cost of living and most normal people are fucked.
I'm a lecturer (5 yrs) and I'm struggling to pay my bills. We've been out on strike and nothing happened. NHS is struggling. Pay rises are around 0% for most people I know. Food inflation is around 16%. Foodbanks are struggling to feed families.
Companies are making record profits, these are distributed as dividends to shareholders (the rich) who then go on to buy more shares or other assets (e.g. houses)
Where I live most houses are Air B&B for a lot of the year, this has destroyed most villages by the coast. House prices have doubled or more. So a lot of those families have moved into towns, forced to rent rather than buy. Tons of money that used to go into mortgages (investments) is now funnelled to rich people who own the housing stock.
There's a lot of crazy stuff going on. The UK has a shrinking middle class. The middle class used to drive the economy. The rich poor divide is breaking the country.
A better TAX system would fix most of the problems. But our government is not interested.
The house 2 doors down was last sold for £80k about 20 years ago. The house over the road that has just gone up for sale is asking for £300k. I'm lucky that my salary is over the median, but a 3-bed semi detached is like 10x the median salary (£26k). The same sort of property that my parents generation bought for 5x the median salary back in the 90s.
Rich folk are investing in housing and renting it out. It's crazy.
7% a year assuming they spent £0 (hint: they didnt)
The houses here used to be affordable for a middle income person or family. Now they aren't, that's the issue, not the sticker price.
edit tldr:
At the same time houses have gone up in price, wages have stagnated, rent has increased and inflation has increased. So we earn the same, pay more for rent, utilities and food, and have to save more (10% deposit is usually the minimum).
Some data:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwor...
Growth in employees' average total pay (including bonuses) was 5.8% and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 6.7% in January to March 2023.
(That appears to be on an annual basis.)
UK: 747
Wales: 600
North East: 625
East Midlands: 700
South East: 841
London: 904
There are some multinationals who escape taxation, but even if that were perfectly addressed it wouldn't solve the UK's issues. Tax receipts are already close to 40% of GDP, these are record highs, frankly there are few countries where going over 40% is both possible or sustainable. (The US is at 25% for reference).
House prices are high because for 15 years mortgages were basically at 0% interest. This didn't actually make housing more affordable through cheap mortgages, if just inflated house prices. The endless schemes to help young people buy property just makes this worse, as the schemes are just built into the price.
Lastly, and this is usually hard to hear for people of your persuasion, you just can't add 500k-1m NET people to a country and expect housing to be just as available, and the health service to not be under massive strain. It's a physical impossibility. YES, I know many immigrants work in the NHS. That is not a valid rebuke to the problem. 1m net immigrants last year is 1m more people who need health services. The NHS has received massively more funding since covid and just can't cope. I'm not against migration, but the sheer numbers need to be talked about. You can't keep a sustainable country at these levels.
Finally, the UK has relied on financial and advisory services for decades as the core of its economy. This seems to be working less and less, tech is taking over. the 80-90s were about finance, since then it's been about tech. Slowly the country is falling behind.
This is a chronic issue in almost all of europe, but at least there there is high end manufacturing, and eastern europe has tonnes of catching up to do which grows the economy.
> * Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at the same time, including the war in Ukraine"[1]. *
Even so, the net migration numbers were nowhere close to 1 million. From the same source as above,
> * With this caveat in mind, estimates from the Office of National Statistics suggest that total net migration was 504,000 in the year ending June 2022. *
You suggested that the UK adds 500k-1m migrants every year, but the actual number seems to be pretty much at the bottom of that range. The number of students coming to the UK has also increased significantly (it does contribute to increase in net migration stats).
The ONS still predicts (with a considerable amount of uncertainty I'll admit) that the net migration numbers will fall significantly in the next 5 or so years.
1. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/lo...
That’s still almost 1% addition to the population every year.
Even if that means 100k families, you still need an extra 100k houses or flats ideally per year. That is impossible, even with super efficient planning laws.
Table 244: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tab...
You absolutely can have this level of migration, but you need to build the infrastructure to support it (homes, schools, hospitals etc).
Relevant statistics on number of dwellings are here [1], and they seem to fit the population increase, but I don't have time to find similar statistics on school places, hospitals etc.
[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/...
Isn’t that the point the above poster was making? If you don’t build the support, then you cannot handle the influx of people.
Immigration without augmentation results in lamentation.
I don't mind what arguments people make when they provide some evidence to support them, but the commenter wrote "physical impossibility" when it took me 2 minutes to find statistics to the contrary for their first point.
Most of Eastern Europe is expected to overtake the UK in terms of living standards in the middle of this decade. Parts of it already has.
Brexit was just a fantasy of better days to come that was actually pretext for a right wing power grab. And what do right wingers ultimately want? A world of red in tooth and claw capitalism with themselves as the permanent winners, right up until they are hit with one of life's unexpected curve balls then they come crying to the state to save them.
Fuck the tories.
You know, it's not different in ANY of the empires, past or present. Look at Russia and it's just a couple decades of further decline, but the same thing.
If hackers and nerd idealists are worth anything, it's for trying to solve all this against a background of constant push-back. I sometimes wonder if the most important thing I could possibly do is try to depict this larger picture in such a way that people got it.
Thinking about this, it actually reminds me of season 2 of Clarkson's Farm. He might not be what you think of when you think of a prototypical hacker, but Clarkson actually is one. In the series he constantly found loopholes to evade the tyrannical council although they sadly ended up winning in the end. Although it makes you think that if someone with his influence and resources can't find a way through the bureaucratic minefield to open a restaurant in an disused barn in the middle of a field on his own property what hope do the rest of us have.
Might be like trying to guide chaos. Get beyond the Dunbar number and you're in trouble.
I very seriously doubt that US or even the UK will look like Russia in a couple decades. Russia was historically a backwards agricultural country, that went through breakneck centrally-planned industrialization during the Soviet era, which ultimately collapsed under its own mismanagement, corruption and stupidity. Now they're just playing in the rubbles, getting most of their money from selling vast Siberian mineral riches. Whereas US/UK for the past 200 years have been at the forefront of enlightenment, industrialization, innovation, scientific discoveries, creation of complex and extremely well performing businesses etc. All that is constitutes an enormous capital that can't be just pissed away in a couple decades.
As someone planning to leave and never come back, can you give me a brief overview of some of the shit I might not know about that I'm going to have to deal with?
I should have moved my UK phone number to a pre-pay plan on a premium network (O2, Vodafone etc), I left it on a budget one which cancelled it with very little notice.
I can't elaborate too much but high skilled and family reunification pathways are still open, but the tests and documentation are more onerous than before brexit.
I used to live in the countryside, the 90s had a background of rapid improvements in schools and hospitals. 2000s full of out of town megashops killing the high street. 2010s public service cuts. 2020 stuff just not working.
The scale of the housing price problem is difficult to behold.
https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Norfolk-house-prices.html has the house prices
https://www.adzuna.co.uk/jobs/salaries/norfolk is the average wage. The average house price is 10x the average wage. but thats not evenly distributed. if you live up in the northern part, the average house price is 100x times wage.
The UK was already extraordinarily unequal in the 2000s, however inflation, benefit "adjustment" and general failure in policy.
I really, really, _really_ doubt that's the case. That'd need salaries to be <£10k and house prices of >£1 million.
Why would not working result in higher pay? Especially in a field where the product is increasingly seen as a luxury that costs as much as a downpayment for a house and ultimately not a essential requirement for employment.
As a lot of people can access further education, they take the opportunity even if it isn't necessary for employment. Most students work whilst studying, even with a student loan, because the loan almost certainly doesn't cover their rent, food, transport and textbooks for example. Most young people you see working in hospitality are probably in university studying.
What's the alternative to make ends meet for students? OnlyFans?
In certain fields (e.g. medicine, academics) there are huge centers that represent the majority of jobs for a region. Specialized workers here find it harder to job hop, as there are fewer opportunities.
Striking provides another means to better pay. Say you value my work at $40/hr, but are currently paying my at $20/hr. In domains where employees don't have much recourse to just go find another employer, strikes provide a good mechanism to call the bluff of an employer. If they really only value your work at $20/hr, they'll not be willing to pay any more. If they do value it more highly, striking makes it so they have to choose between making concessions or losing work they value.
Hard to swallow for union types but it’s how I ended up being paid significantly more and having no issues buying a house.
In an environment where your employer knows you don't have any options, there is no incentive for them to pay you any higher regardless of how much effort/value you provide.
If you have no recourse when they value your work at $40/hr, what recourse would you have when they value your work at $60/hr but still pay you $20/hr?
Being a more valuable employee works great in combination with exercising leverage over your employer (quit-threat, striking, competitive labor market), since those threaten to take that value away from your employer if they don't play ball.
I very much wonder how they expect "normal" people to survive. It looks like you need to fall quite far into the highest tax brackets just to be able to rent something decent in London, and buying is absolutely out of reach.
Ironically enough, part of what makes those areas desirable is various businesses (such as food service, etc) that rely on low/unskilled labor to function, against which a war of attrition is being waged on. That war is being won and as a result a lot of those businesses have now themselves failed - I've now seen multiple repossession notices on closed restaurants/shopfronts and more and more vacant commercial property, and the high street never really recovered since the pandemic.
As far as I'm concerned I am considering leaving this country once my current lease expires unless business picks up significantly to offset the increased costs (doesn't look likely from what I see). There is no reason to pay the money I am paying here if I can get better food, climate and general quality of life for the same (or even less!) money elsewhere in Europe.
We very much shot ourselves in the foot in that regard.
Sure. And you should probably do that. But then a lot of other people are of the opinion that they can ignore food and weather and come to Britain. Net migration numbers in recent decades have not gone in favour of your line of thinking?
UK high street is being attacked from multiple sides, from apparent lack of labour satisfied/pressured into low wages, to having their access being cut by the latest LTN measures around the country. Rental market is getting squeezed hard by the latest measures that will only make the situation worse, esp for London (I'm lucky I've escaped that place when I could). Current/incoming gov't is drunk on high taxation and more and more regulation of every facet of your life and business. But I'm still unsure my business/work would fare better in any other european country (forget Brexit, it doesn't have much to do with any of this). The malaise is everywhere.
Some of them are pretty surprised at the state of things when they get here. There was a report in the BBC that a lot of Ukrainian refugees find the education system and housing conditions an absolute joke compared to what they had back home.
Housing sucks though.
As a labor camp, Britain is very nice and efficient. Depending on the job, their country of origin, and whether they are able/willing to evade taxes, it may work out that a couple years of suffering in shitty conditions will yield a decent nest egg to enjoy back home. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a nice place to live and build a future in. I wonder if there are stats on the average length of stay of those immigrants?
I have no idea how people on average salaries - even average London salaries - can afford to stay much longer.
For whatever reason, people deem it worth it to pay such high rents to remain living in London. London's population is still growing, albeit slower than before the pandemic.
As an example:
https://www.voxi.co.uk/for-now - £10/month unlimited calls, texts, data for 6months - then you go onto a £10/month plan but without the unlimited data.
We also have social tariffs for broadband too:
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/compare-broadband-deals/br...
Seems like a bigger issue is people not knowing about these tariffs.
I'd like to add, I firmly believe everyone should have government provided "basic" internet that's at least 38Mbps or something similar. I really do hate what the government has done to the UK over the last decade so I'm not on their side or anything.
I know that plenty of people are doing alright and, in my opinion, this group is vastly over-represented on HN. The food bank usage stats suggest that the living conditions of people across this country have been getting worse for a while now, and while the pandemic and inflation have exacerbated this problem, they did not create it.
1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/382695/uk-foodbank-users...
2. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/food-bank-demand-and-th...
3. https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end...
"This country is much worse than it used to be, I'm going to emigrate soon"
Except in the UK, they're going to emigrate to Canada.
The UK does have some uniquely local problems to deal with, but they're overlayed with a global downturn as well. It's easy to attribute the whole thing to local problems, when in fact a big chunk of it is global. The issues seem to mostly be the same - the massive house price inflation that's sucking the joy out of life for everyone under 40.
I do agree that many of the problems are the same, but the UK is facing both the global issues and a case of repeated political footguns.
Everyone knows the issues of their home country pretty well - but it's harder to get a real "feel" for issues of other countries without living there.
The best indicator you can find is net migration flows (those people who move from the UK to Canada/USA, and have the opportunity to return, do they?).
Britain should unironically learn to code.
We’re here quietly - all working for American / multi-national companies. Just little of the Silicon Valley startup culture here in the UK.
We also have good Computer Science courses at universities. Research at these universities is also decent.
And in Silicon Valley you don't have to go too far before you hear a British accent.
How much of this is VC-funded "growth & engagement" crap that has no sustainable business model and will go out of business very soon, if it hasn't already?
London alone gets more tech investment than Canada, Australia, and New Zealand combined.
In fact, Britain is kinda the poster-boy for the thesis that "learn to code" is not a universal remedy for economic malaise. A large percentage of the population simply can not, and will not, work with computers at a level worth paying for.