Average Age of Cars on U.S. Roads Hits 12.5 Years, a Record High | Hacker News Reader

Average Age of Cars on U.S. Roads Hits 12.5 Years, a Record High

thedrive.com

43 pointsPaulHoule112 comments

They don’t mention the potential contribution of cars becoming more reliable over time. I would expect that that’s part of it though I don’t doubt that the shorter term factors that the article focuses on have dominated recently.

More reliable cars + fewer miles on the people working from home + used and new cars being astronomically expensive or simply unavailable + new loans being stupid high

Cars are far more reliable than they used to be. Remember, even through the mid 90s many cars came with 5 digit odometers because they weren’t expected to ever reach 100k miles.

Nowadays a car lasting >200k miles is totally unremarkable.

Unless you're a mechanic then you can make cars in the 90s last as long as the engine does.

New car prices have gone up over time. I wonder if something like (new car price)/(average car lifespan) or (new car price)/(average miles driven) is stable in the long term. (Of course in the short terms car prices are rather inflated right now.)

As far as I can tell, increasing cad prices are mostly pegged to inflation (the last couple years excepted).

Also rust - or lack thereof. My 2004 Volvo has no rust at all and I am in the Northeast. I know that this, and other aspects of reliability, depends greatly on the make and model, but it does seem to me that cars are less susceptible to rust these days.

I would argue that cars today are perhaps less reliable than those made 12.5 years ago.

The proliferation of "lifetime" non-serviceable CVTs and digitally controlled everything will probably result in a lot more premature deaths of vehicles.

That would be my observation too. Including far less serviceable. Even replacing a broken backlight bulb needs a service station these days.

You're lucky is a broken backlight bulb. If the front LED goes out it's > $1,500 for a whole new assembly:

https://parts.bmwoforlandpark.com/p/BMW__M240i/Headlight--LE...

You don’t need to replace the headlight assembly if the led bulb goes out. You replace the led bulb.

Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer.

For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system.

> Yep I agree, and doing any maintenance on modern cars requires a super expensive (or sketchy pirated/ebay purchased) diagnostic computer from the manufacturer.

Unless things have drastically changed in the last 3-4 years, this has not been my experience. I haven’t had any trouble tracking down issues with a standard, cheap code scanner. The biggest issue with doing anything more than routine maintenance on modern cars is how tightly everything is packed together. Often times it just makes a job more difficult, but still doable. Sometimes a job will require too much investment in tools to be practical.

> For example power steering in older cars was a simple hydraulic mechanical system that could fail gracefully and be troubleshooted with minimal tools. Nowadays steering is electronic drive-by-wire and has many more components like actuators, sensors, etc. that can all fail and stop the entire system.

Do you have anything to suggest that this increased complexity has actually led to an increased rate of failure in the steering system of modern cars? Because I believe in practice it’s been quite the opposite.

The car I drive is 16 years old and right now I have no intention of buying new.

Why, today's cars come with too much complexity, I do not want automatic anything plus the trend to internet connected cars annoys me to no end.

Also new costs way too much, if my car fails beyond repair, if I cannot find a good alternative I may abandon driving all together and do uber and public transportation when available. Right now for short errands, in the summer, I either walk or bike.

I'm split on this - some of the new tech in cars is welcome other things are annoying. I do love my Ranger from 1997 - manual everything (I would like power steering from time to time) but that thing is indestructible.

I've also got a ranger from 1997. I love that little truck. No A/C (as in it came from the factory that way). I might add A/C as a summer project.

Indestructible cars contain destructible people. I don't want to be my car's shock absorber.

They don't mean its so structurally sound it bounces off things, but that mechanically that era of ford ranger is extremely simple and basic and very easy to keep going.

If its the 2.3 motor, they're nearly unkillable short of oil starvation and are used in generators, tractors, the mustang, the ranger, etc.

Yes, nice phrasing I'll remember that.

Not having a passenger side air-bag is one of those things missing in my indestructible car.

This is it for me. I could probably afford a modest new vehicle now, but instead I'm rebuilding the engine and transmission on my 20+ year-old. The money I'll spend would cover a good chunk of the sticker on a dealer vehicle, but everything built in the last 15 years is more electronic than I want it to be. I spend some time every year in a variety of "offroad" conditions (snow, sand, mud, usually) and it's entirely too common for newer vehicles to get stuck in those places because some of their electronics decided to disable the vehicle's transfer case once it lost traction on too many wheels.

There are some pretty decent newer models that can be used as platforms and made to do those things well, but then you're spending a pile of money anyway.

But I'm sure I'm in a tiny minority on this, and for most people, it's simply a matter of not being able to afford a car payment right now.

My Ford F150 from 2015 is going just fine. It'll go for a lot longer too - it's pretty much infinitely repairable.

No touch-panels, no weird dash controls that do god knows what. Clock that shows the time; thermometer that shows the temp.

Made for folks who want to get there, not figure out how to get there.

It was in a fire, sort of. Next to a truck that burned. Left side of mine was melted - all the plastic parts dripping onto the pavement like some Dali painting.

All repaired, all working fine again! Got 170000 miles on it; gonna go another.

> I do not want automatic anything

I respect the preference but need to voice just how much value I get from highway-assist tools like lane-assist and apple-carplay for navigation.

It greatly lowers the cognitive load on long drives while balancing the need for driver-engagement and safety.

I think some brands are able to strike the right balance, I have a Subaru with physical buttons providing a tactile mode of control while also getting the benefits of a touch screen (an adaptive UI that can be better for particular apps).

That's also how I feel about my 2023 Mazda CX-5. Made commuting lot less of a chore. And no touch screen so I can keep my eyes on the road.

micromobility is on the rise. Electric skateboard is the latest greatest thing ever if you are willing to invest in learning the skills to safely use it.

It's got an even smaller form factor than the scooters and so far I've never found a place that would not allow me to tow it in behind me (did not try flying).

This is possible because most cars have ICEs. An under-discussed aspect of EVs, in my opinion, is the large amount of waste they will produce. The batteries have much shorter lives than an ICE, and are so expensive that I predict entire vehicles will be scrapped long before an equivalent ICE model would be.

I don't think is fair. We actually don't have a lot of data on real world battery lifetimes, but a properly engineered system with good heat & charge mgmt can last a decade for sure. There are 2011, 2012 Chevy Volts on the road like this, with minimal degradation, from my understanding.

It is true that some manufacturers (cough cough Nissan) have been slack on the battery longevity front. But Tesla and GM at least put a lot of engineering into temperature and lifecycle mgmt and I expect others are now doing the same

That and I'm sure in the long run, cost effective battery replacement will become entirely feasible in various manufacturer pipelines, once things mature and standardize.

Meanwhile in an EV most other components will have a longer lifetime.

Even early, pre-2013 Nissan Leafs with uncooled batteries have battery capacities that are holding up surprisingly well.

> I predict entire vehicles will be scrapped long before an equivalent ICE model would be.

That's a easy prediction today with so many early EV models on the road. As the technology matures so will the life-span.

Does anyone have leads on where to find de-commissioned EV batteries for reuse as local energy storage? I want to hook some in to a renewable energy generation platform.

In general it's an ad-hoc market, but even eBay is fine for this. Lots of older Nissan and Volt cells available for sale. Challenge being shipping. I got a single Gen 1 Volt pack sitting in my shop, waiting for a project, and I got it for a good price off eBay two years ago, from a Canadian supplier so shipping was also domestic and reasonable. Quite handy. 48V, still has most of its capacity. Reasonable form factor to work with.

I predict that second hand business will be made illegal for whatever reasons ever not to endanger an economic potential IF <insert your country> will become serious at producing batteries.

This seems wrong. Tesla has estimated their batteries to be good for over a million miles[1].

[1] https://www.electrive.com/2020/10/19/tesla-researchers-prese...

But are they good after 10, 15, or 20 years? A battery will wear out due to time alone. This is somewhat true for cars, but not in the same way. Most people will never drive a million miles, but many people will keep a car for 10-20 years.

There are still lots of 1st year Leafs with original batteries, so we know they last at least 12 years.

That’s good to know. My LEAF is 6 years old, and has only lost one bar, leaving it with something like 92-93% of its original battery life, which is no major sacrifice. I do wonder how it will look when it reaches 10 years. I’d like to drive it as long as possible.

Isn't this offset by the much smaller number of moving parts that wear out?

There are just as many moving parts in most evs as ice cars.

> The batteries have much shorter lives than an ICE

At least for Tesla, their batteries live very very long [1]. An ICE car with 500.000km on it would be by that point at the very least on their second engine and 3rd/4th clutch, probably on its second transmission, and god knows how many oil changes and belt replacements.

A classic combustion engine consists of ~1.500 parts, some of which are under immense thermal and mechanical stress, and that's just the engine and engine-associated parts and doesn't include the whole exhaust management system with all its components. In contrast, electric engines are ~200 parts and have way less thermal stress.

That marked difference in complexity is also the reason why classic ICE car dealerships are so furious about the switch to electric cars - there is, crash repairs aside, barely any maintenance and repair but tire, brake and air-condition fluid/filter changes to do on an electric vehicle. No oil changes, no AdBlue refills (at least pre-Dieselgate diesel cars with their cheating system only had AdBlue refills during regular maintenance), no DPF deep-cleaning, no engine rebuilds, no transmission/clutch fixes...

On top of that, the batteries themselves are perfectly fine to re-use in a stationary scenario after their degradation makes them too incapable of using in an EV (=below 60% capacity). Even the first-generation base Model S battery with 60 kWh would still have 36 kWh - more than enough to cover a week worth of an entire household's consumption as a backup battery.

[1] https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...

What is your definition of part? Is a resistor on a PCB a part?

I presume he means parts are likely to need replacement- i.e. that either move or are susceptible to degradation from heat. If you have to replace a resistor that's a freak occurrence.

Yes electic cars do have heat and moving parts but it's more manageable. Fewer moving parts, no reciprocation like connecting rods and valves, no vibrations to speak of, and lower temperatures.

If you look at the service manual for even quite modern cars, you'll see a vast number of parts that need to be "inspected, replace if necessary" at various mileage intervals. Sensors, hoses, filters etc. All due to combinations of reciprocating motion, heat cycles, and chemical breakdown.

Also you have to bear in mind that we are probably close to the peak of ICE technology. What we have now, we have after decades of development. Electric cars are already competitive after a couple of decades of serious R&D.

Brakes are also often not necessary to service if you use moderate regeneration to slow the vehicle most of the time.

I’ve only had to get tire, windshield wiper, and software changes in 12 years.

The most I have ever spent on a car is $4000. And at that price I still expect to get another 60-80k out of a car.

If an EV ever gets that cheap, I will be sure to give them a spin. But until then I will take their reliability claims with a grain of salt.

Absolutely. Will never come true for EVs even after inflation adapted

$4000 for me meant something totally different 4 years ago, than what it means today.

I used to expect to get a very used, high mileage but repairable and dependable vehicle for that amount with some effort searching.

I can remember buying before internet, you could look at local paper or dealerships but the best hope for a larger pool of searching was phone calls, printed listings, etc. When internet searching really caught on I thought it would open up a larger market and drive prices down with the extra competition. Not sure to what extent that happened but in any event prices have done anything but go down over past 10-15 years, with a massive spike in prices especially past 4 years.

I do wonder if that end of the market is going to disappear. It’s going to be hard justifying spending $10k for a new battery when the car is only worth half that.

A moderately popular ICE car[0] is shitting 5.6t of CO2 every year. You don't see that waste but it's all around you.

[0]https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=45101

Unfortunately all efforts to make the population as a whole see/feel that waste -- in the form of appropriate carbon/fuel taxes and surcharges -- are likely to end in riots or deposed governments.

I drive a 12-year-old EV.

The very aged battery, which works fine for my use, is still worth as much as an entire comparable ICE economy car if I were to remove it and sell it. People use them in other projects where their energy density to cost is still reasonable.

This is the worst-performing and shortest-lived lithium car battery produced in the past decade. All the recent ones are much better.

You should examine your assumptions.

How much miles do you get out of it?

Or a better question, how much range was lost as a percentage compared to when it was originally released?

First generation Leaf I guess. Without battery thermal management. I know a guy who has it. The car is good enough for daily commuting in the city.

> An under-discussed aspect of EVs, in my opinion, is the large amount of waste they will produce.

Compare and contrast to the prodigious waste and pollution that the petroleum supply chain causes, I think it's a pittance.

Batteries outlive an ICE lead-acid battery by about 5-10x.

And the beauty of EVs is that everything is completely recyclable include, especially the battery.

Is that it? Cars are incredibly expensive and on average people only use them for 12 years? And that's the record?

We have to re-think the environmental impact on what appears to be consumable items.

You are misinterpreting the title. "The average age in the US is 38" doesn't mean everyone lives to be 38 on average.

So are we thinking that the average car lasts about twice the average age of cars - that is, 25 years?

You can't necessarily estimate this given only the average.

Not OP, but I think is a reference to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

Not really - car lifetimes don't have the right sort of distribution for that. But fun to think about!

Not at any given point in time, but yes, over the long run.

In other words, there is a long tail, and the end of that tail represents less than half of cars, but the tail is getting longer, so when todays 12.5 year old cars get to 25, the tail will be thicker at that age than it is now.

I've posted before about my 35 year old Suburban that's still on the road, still my daily driver. But after so many years of use, it is time to turn it into a part time fun-mobile instead of the grocery getter. It needs a lot of work.

These days I could afford a $500/mo car payment for a few years, but I didn't do that. I am buying a used car for $2500, and it's a 2005. It also needs a little work, but they all do at that age. I just don't see the utility in buying new cars.

That being said, every used car was once somebody's new car.

How many miles on that Suburban?

Was it kept in a garage?

What climate did it live in?

Miles: I don't know. It's currently at "78000" which, based on its history, is probably 278K if not 378K.

Garage: Not since I've owned it (2014)

Climate: Portland, OR area until 2014, then WA, now the dry air of Nevada. Almost no rust.

My first "car" was a 1985 Suburban. It had 200K miles when I bought it, and it had originally been a police vehicle. Pretty sure I paid $1000.

Another fun old car story I like to tell. I moved into a house in the 80s and there was a car parked on the street with a for sale sign. It was an ancient Volvo. The owner came out and showed it to me. It had 950K miles on the odometer. He was asking $50.

Aside from the increase in quality, even basic $30k cars these day drive nicely and ride exceedingly well compared to their ancestors from the 90s and early 2000s.

The incremental improvement that you get by trading in for newer model or even up, just isn't worth the price of admission compared to the past.

> even basic $30k cars

"basic" as in it takes 2 years earning min wage and not spending a dime to afford it

adjusted for inflation not to mention features, cars are cheaper than ever.

My first new car was 1992 Maxima. It retailed for nearly $20k in 1991, which is $43k in today's money.

It didn't even come with leather, power seat, sunroof, ABS, CD, or automatic climate control. It only had one airbag.

What does the Nissan Maxima retail for right now? Regional price differences means my looking up that information is meaningless, but I'm seeing more than $30k.

Maxima has moved upmarket and it's no longer a basic car. However, Nissan Altima starts at $25k.

I'm not sure the history of the Maxima, but in 1992 it was being marketed as a "four-door sports car", which doesn't sound the bottom of the market to me. It sounds like a bad example either way. Maybe a better example would be the Nissan Altima, which was available in 1993 for $13,349[1] and would cost (according to the calculator here[2]) ~$28,000 in today's dollars

[1] https://www.cargurus.com/research/1993-Nissan-Altima-c3078 [2] https://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html

Yeah I didn't mean to imply the Maxima was basic. In fact, I meant the opposite, because it costs $43k in today's money, yet hardly came with any features that you'd find in today's $30k cars.

Ah, ok, I was confused as to the point.

Even if true, min wages are stagnating once you account for inflation

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/18728.jpeg

> cars are cheaper than ever

factually false and easily verifiable, VW polo/golf current gen are 40%+ more expensive than V1s once you adjust for inflation: https://www.carscoops.com/2017/09/vw-golf-40-year-price-hist...

renault clio 1: 8000 euros (adjusted) renault clio 5: 20000 euros (current)

peugeot 205: 9000 euros (adjusted) peugeot 208: 17000 euros (current)

> It didn't even come with leather, power seat, sunroof, ABS, CD, or automatic climate control. It only had one airbag.

No cars comes with the bare minimum anymore (mandatory safety features), they all have screens, infotainment, useless gadgets. If you just want to go from A to B you don't need a computer on wheels.

Not even talking about maintenance, you can't do anything by yourself anymore

$30k Cars are not for people earning minimum wage. Take a bus or buy something sub $5k. Minimum wage uses the minimum viable transportation.

The average new car price is $48k now: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43611570/average-new-car-...

Where are people going to find a $30k or less new car? Lol they don't exist.

Nothing that can drive reliably is under $10k used too.

Be as smug as you want but at the end of the day if minimum wage earners can't get affordable transportation then none of the treats you depend on and demand every day, like your coffee barista or your overpriced sandwiches, or your dog walker, etc. will be available.

I paid 29K+tax for my brand new Mazda CX-5 Select (not the cheapest model) 3 months ago.

Mitsubishi Mirage is $20k at most, last I checked.

Not luxurious, but simple, reliable, and even has Android Auto/Apple CarPlay.

Mazda dealer down the street will sell you a mid-range Mazda 3 for $25k. And those are quite good cars. A Kia Soul can easily be had for $22k, or a Rio for $20k or less. They're not quite as nice, but they'll work.

>or buy something sub $5k.

And spend shitton on regular repairs :)

Cars are very efficient when it comes to keeping the poor - poor.

It depends on what you buy. My 1996 Toyota is at 125k and I drive it super hard. I've charged the AC once and replaced the fuel pump twice.

My son daily drives a 1963 Dart. My friend drives a 2018 Kia. My friend spent $700 on a replacement door control panel. My son spent $30 on a replacement head (swapped in 3 hours).

Your 1996 has remarkably low miles on it. Apparently the average miles a year is ~13,500[1], so you should be ~364,5000.

[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/auto-loans/a32880477/average-mi...

I'm surprised that the dart has never been redone in that time.

I bought the Toyota with 40k about 7 years ago. It had been parked in a garage for 10 years. A client of mine was an attorney and no one in the estate wanted the car.

My son bought the Dart off FB marketplace, pulled it out of the weeds and put it back on the road. He drove it for a year before finally welding in floorpans (prep for 3k mi trip). 1960-1963 made a lot of cars that aren't popular now. No big rush to restore those.

I've heard too many horror stories of how many repairs are needed for < 5K cars. When I was shopping for a car in 2021 I was comparing a ~100K mile Kia Rio Hatchback (no power windows, scraped up, pretty rough shape) for ~12K + tax (~13.5-14K total), or a brand new one of the same model (ended up paying 20K out the door). This was at the same dealership.

I got the new one, could probably sell it for almost the same price as I bought it for 1.5 years and 25K miles later (though to be fair, I got a pretty good deal on it).

Due to depreciation curve being out of whack right now (and labor being expensive), a new car can actually cost you less than a 5k clunker - not to mention loss of income if it breaks down.

Yes, wealth inequality is massive. Most people I know could buy that car in cash without thinking about it.

However, I must say: $30k is not that basic, my $30.5k vehicle came with 11" touchscreen, vision system for adaptive cruise control & lane tracking & progressive enhancement safety features, easy-to-fold backseats for a massive trunk, comfy & durable ride, and great seats.

Pretty sure the real basic cars come in at 15-20k these days.

Where in the US are people driving a new car home after paying 15k-20k? I'm hearing 60k-80k from buyers and these folks are far from well off.

You're hearing 60-80k from buyers who are buying Nissan Versa? Or from people who are buying Lexus/Tesla/Ford MachE?

I find it hard to believe a car with a $15.5k MSRP is going for $60k, I'd love for you to elaborate on what you're saying...

Me indicating the buyers aren't well off is me indicating they aren't buying luxury brands. Past that I rarely recall what a newer model is as I can't tell modern cars apart. I guess I also can't get past modern price tags.

It sounds like you routinely see new cars that can be taken home after paying 15k-25k. What's an example of a sub 20k 4-door?

It makes no sense to try to imply things cost $60k like that's a lot when you don't know what vehicles they are. Some vehicles cost $60-80k, but most don't.

> What's an example of a sub 20k 4-door

I already mentioned one. Nissan Versa.

Here's a bunch of listings where you could buy a new vehicle for $18k today [0]

[0]: https://www.redwoodcitynissan.com/new-nissan-versa-redwood-c...

If you keep up on maintenance and aren't riding around on blown shocks, sagging springs, etc. then 20 plus year old cars ride perfectly fine. I would gladly ride around in a Lexus LS400 or Mercedes S class from 1992 in great condition vs. a brand new Honda Civic.

Me too. Most XF30 LS430 are still amazing condition, and I consider it to be the last LS with original Lexus DNA.

Civics are amazing cars.

They're nice but they are designed to a cheaper consumer price point. The LS400 and top end luxury cars of 30 years ago were designed to be ultra smooth and comfortable. The LS400 had to be able to drive at 100mph+ on the autobahn without any vibration or noise from the engine felt in the cabin--it was an actual design requirement from the head of the company. If you've kept up on maintenance an old luxury car like that will drive just as smooth and comfortably as when new, and way more smooth than a new economy car.

My only concern with a car that old is crash safety, otherwise I think they're phenominal. Here's for example a 2nd gen LS400 and a new Civic IIHS tests[1]. There's some better photos on the IIHS' website, and actual measurements.[2] Rust can also impact the car's structural integrity and crash worthiness over the years.[3]

[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjDYbIFxJrM

[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSSEKzv166Q

[2]https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/lexus/ls-4-door-sedan/1...

[2]https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Honda/civic-4-door-seda...

[3]https://www.autoweek.com/news/a1695221/heres-how-rust-affect...

You don't even have to go as ancient as a 20+ year old car. A 5 year old car will be just as reliable as a new car and cheaper.

I've always owned used cars. It may just be my upbringing, but I was always told only rich people or stupid people who don't know what "depreciation" means buy new cars. I mean, I'm glad there are people out there buying new cars: They're eating the depreciation and supplying the second-hand market.

And horsepower

https://archive.ph/DNTsx/62972222ee75d8e11096ec4ae083d37d85b...

One reason I'm keeping my older cars because I don't want to have to deal with the crapshow that is touchscreen interfaces.

Part of me thinking that "cash for clunkers" in 2009 got rid of over 600,000 cars/light trucks. If it wasn't for that, the average age would be even higher?

The average price of cars is also at a record high. Historically, MSRP tended to be in the $15k-$25k range (adj for inflation). What are folks paying today?

This 2020 article compares Ford pickup MSRP by year. https://www.thedrive.com/news/34333/heres-how-much-the-ford-...

Add 12.5 to 2023 and you get just over the magic number of 2035.

Maybe when that happens you need a new infotainment system.

I _hope_ that by average they mean median - the article doesn't really say.

As to reliability, it's not clear to me that newer (post 2010s) vehicles really are better than older ones. Certainly there's a lot of increased complexity (DSGs, CVTs, ubiquitous turbos) and certain parts are increasingly hard to obtain due to reliance on electronics.

The big difference vs. 12 years ago is that general-purpose EVs are available new. With the caveat that they certainly don't cover all use-cases, for commuting/local driving and even longer distance casual driving, they are more than viable, and if you live in a place with sane electricity prices (or produce your own), the cost savings can be massive. This past year I saved $2500 in gas costs (vs. a 30 mpg ICEV at $4.50/gal prices).

Ok, I think this is a good thing for the most part. Cars last so much longer nowadays. More interesting would be the average mileage of cars on the road, though.

An underrated factor of this is that between the late nineties and early 2000s saw cars at basically their peak reliability.

People may want to point their fingers at car manufacturers for bigger, more expensive cars, but manufacturers fought tooth and nail to keep small, cheap cars on the market way longer than reasonably indicated by consumer demand. They just can't outcompete on cheap against the very robust used market.

I hear that the CAFE standards carveouts for big vehicles was part of it. A compromise that increases bad outcomes isn't much of a compromise.

9 years old Bmw. 80k miles and automatic gearbox is failing. I bet cars from this decade will not last for decade.

Thats just BMW. Not known for their reliability.

It’s not entirely surprising; and at the consumer level we can expect to experience compensatory responses from manufacturers and their entire ecosystem in the form of more subscription models for vehicle functionality, higher parts prices, service up-selling, and all forms of rent-seeking.

With costs going up it becomes more economical to repair and run cars longer. It’s basic math

On the countryside EVs are no viable solution and totally impractical. People stick therefore to their ICEs and wait for a sane solution.

Prices rose and people cant afford.

My two explanations.

Just a matter of time when car manufacturers will have to ramp up production to increase sales and prices will decrease

I tried to get an answer from perplexity AI about reliability of new cars. TLDR: The question of whether vehicle reliability has gone up or down is not straightforward with a deadlock between both sides of the argument. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/7afb10d7-f167-47c7-8857-0e5...

Everyone's got their fairly reasonable explanations as to why this is happening. Complexity in cars driving up cost and tanking reliability. Inflation. Tight finances. Public transit, work from home.

And then I look at the WEF guys, who want to make personal vehicle ownership not a thing and think... Boy it's happening. We're turning into Cuba with ancient cars on the road -- eventually none of them will be personally owned. And we're totally happy about that prospect for now.

2016: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/goodbye-car-ownership...

That webpage> With blockchain-enabled mobility, all providers and consumers can equally participate in a transportation system, setting the terms, conditions and pricing they choose.

I'll wait and see before concluding that that's happening...

Cars in Cuba are personally owned, they're all old due to embargos.

Plenty of other poorer countries afford newer cars.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com