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Comment by gumballindie | Hacker News Reader

> “When we see a complicated system or machine, we anthropomorphize it; everybody does that — people who are working in the field and people who aren’t,”

That and marketing. Microsoft wants all of them sweet £ flowing in and thus over selling what their ai does. Sad part is that many will fall for it.

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Well many fell for Watson, I'm not sure how MBAs just believe anything marketing says.

There is not much to fall for when you can test it for free already.

I also watches the writer of the papers talk and it was a good talk.

I also saw the progress of ml in the last 5 years and I have never seen something progressing that fast (besides Smartphones perhaps).

So it's not far fetched that got 4 is not at the ceiling of doable.

The opposite: chatgpt makes it much easier to get funding, the race is on

AI is not at the stage of smartphones, it’s at the stages of the early transistor. It will grow because we have the data and the hardware to make it grow. But it appears that human intelligence is on a reverse trend, which is why it’s so easy to sell the idea that ai is intelligent and all of the bad scifi around it.

I'm using chatgpt regularly.

I use ml regularly.

I know quite a lot of people doing this also.

Why do you think we are at transistor age?

I don't think that people are using them says anything one way or another about what stage this tech is in. Lots of people used transistors on a daily basis in the form of radios and such back when transistors were brand new on the market.

Exactly. I don't even think it needs to be likened to the transistor age—why would an LLM be anything like an electronics component? The two things are not similar.

Assuming we're in the "transistor age" implies that things are going to get significantly better, and yet that's a very big assumption, IMO.

> I'm using chatgpt regularly.

Wrong, you are not using chatgpt. You are training chatgpt. You are paying a fee simply because they cant scale yet - there are only that many gpus available - and they had to slow things down a bit but openai gains value in you improving its little bot.

Millions of people training a model and an ever increasing computing power means than in 10-20 years ai will be where computer games are today vs 20-30 years ago.

Hence my analogy to transistors. Ai is not going away but what needs to go away is companies such as openai and bad scifi believing mob.

> But it appears that human intelligence is on a reverse trend

A dangerous myth. Idiocracy was an entertainment film with a side order of eugenics, not a documentary.

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