Who is value set by, if not the market?
Who is value set by, if not the market?
NPV, price, and value are each distinct [1]. Individuals judge value according to their own idiosyncratic needs and views, the market determines price, and a valuation model determines NPV - market forces will tend to align these, but there's no guarantee they will and no contradiction if they don't. (Note that NPV might be better termed "net present cash flow," it's more like a price than a value.) The S&P can go to zero on Monday and a million the next day - it's not likely (presumably the exchanges would halt trading long before that happened) but there's nothing to stop it. It's not like a physical system which is constrained by the universe to behave a certain way, it's closer to a series of independent dice rolls.
It seems to me like many people engage with this market for ideological reasons. I don't mean to say that's an illegitimate choice. But it can surely push the price past the NPV, if there's a contingent that's insensitive to the NPV. (This is why it's important to separate price from value. People investing for ideological reasons have a view about the value of Bitcoin, not the price.)
And then there's stuff like this.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wIhTGB3wqV0
(Apologies that this is a meme, it was the first instance of the clip I found & I didn't feel like looking for a non meme version.)
Tl;Dw this is Saylor encouraging people to mortgage their house to buy Bitcoin. I think Saylor is some mixture of con artist and true believer, but I would call that close to unhinged. So yeah, some participants might be delusional (not a doctor). But I assume it's a minority.
[1] If you'd like me to define these terms, please see these previous comments of mine.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32857769
There's some debate in this thread about whether price and value are actually equivalent.