Palantir seeing 'unprecedented' demand for its military AI
fortune.com
fortune.com
What I do not believe in is the ethno-fascist state of China, run by the CCP, nor do I believe in the kleptocratic crony carnival that is Russia.
So, if there is to be an AI arms race, then I do hope that the West will win. It is good to have qualms, it is right to have reservations, but to over enthusiastically hamstring our own efforts here will give us a momentary peace from ourselves until we are devoured by nations (note, nations, not people, I firmly believe that both the Chinese and Russian people are trapped by their government) whose values and morals do not, at all, align with ours.
If it is time again for us to build a new Arsenal of Democracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenal_of_Democracy) let us do so with a weary sigh, but own the responsibility fully and not shy away from it.
But yes, the democratic west should aim for weapon and capability parity. We just should not get on too high a moral horse so.
Even inasmuch as it annoys a lot of people who don't appreciate this perspective--they tend to overrate it as if it must equate to perfection, a nation without problems, etc.
Americans sure love "whatabout". Every time when pointed to their problems you would hear but look at China / Russia / etc.
>"rather magnificent piece of moral high ground"
I guess crusaders are not yet extinct
It annoys everyone because it's based on a false pretense.
In terms of morals, the US didn't turn up any better than the USSR, judging by how it acted when it became uncontested.
Books are being removed from classrooms and inconvenient history is being rewritten by the state in Florida and other states. However Florida’s governor seems to be eying a run at the White House.
It seems unlikely to succeed, but the unlikely has happened before.
We are very definitely better than them.
Hopefully soon more Americans realize how similar your country and China are, the differences are minor, not major.
So if you’re a Chinese citizen, go ahead and type out your name and where you live, along with a list of things you feel your government is wrong about.
The issue isn't that you aren't writing this post with no pause of concern.
The issue is that after writing it, and, presumably, comprehending what you, yourself wrote, you still harbor the delusion of maintaining some moral high ground (as are some other posters in this thread)
The US maintains a lot more freedoms for its citizens simply due to exerting vast military power to siphon resources from the entire planet (with exceptions to China/Russia, obviously). Otherwise, it's entirely unknown and hypothetical as to whether it would or could be a "shining beacon of democracy" as so many would like to believe it currently is (which it very well may be, compared to CCP/Russia, which is not a very high bar)
I think this is the perfect problem for you not us - to work that out. You're not gonna end where you think.
Stuck for an approach? Look at the 2015 Nobel prize in literature and try that in china then in the US.
Most guys try to gauge the relative stupidity or goodness of things by reading history, and getting some sense of the state of play from real people and facts.
For most of us belief alone isn't good enough.
No, just killed slightly less people (maybe) while chanting "they asked for it" and "we are the good guys" mantras.
No, you don't. You have an excellent propaganda and a totally chauvinistic attitude.
To put it simply, you are just biased because you can't see yourself from the outside.
Nothing againstvthe latter, thaz was quite necessary, bit entities as rich as the EU could offer the same thing to all people in need, right?
But freedom of speech, human rights, and climate change are areas where BRICS stands in a morally compromised position, relative to the West.
> BRICS stands in a morally compromised position, relative to the West.
So, specifically what did you mean by all that when compared the west to... what exactly, an economic pact of completely culturally different countries?
I find that self-assigned supremacy in matters of climate change to be somewhat contrary to the fact that the West had pushed all the dirty production to the so called "third world states" (some happen to be BRICS) while still remaining the largest consumer, and then when faces with practical issues, engaged in fracking and reopened the coal mines. Do you honestly think you are the only ones who are bothered?
This attitude is counterproductive and dangerous. I am legitimately scared when western folks start that superiority trope.
We should be looking into the a mirror, not greeting ourselves with the thoughts that there are worse places. This way inevitably leads down, not up, if we are talking "high moral"
Can I have more details please
>"I'll take the good old US"
I would choose the US as well. Because the US treats their own citizens better (at least for now). Not because it stands on "high moral ground" - it does not.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-03/bob-hawke-tiananman-c...
I love a lot about China, love Chinese people, but we have to be realistic about the differences in governance and its capacity for acts like this. We (non-Americans) are very lucky that the US became the world hegemon after WW2 and the sole superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union. For all its faults and mistakes, it usually recognizes them eventually and tries to improve over time. So, while it annoys me a bit that young Americans are so anti-US, it's a very healthy sign that there is so much criticism.
In other words, communism with extra steps if you think it through to its logical conclusion.
Communism's entire thesis (which, frankly, I agree with) is that all historical conflict is class conflict. I have my disagreements, however, with (1) how much of a problem it is purported to be and (2) with both the theory and the implementation of the solutions offered.
The rush to privatize everything in Russia came from the West - particularly the US. The US encouraged Yeltsin (who Putin was a protege of) to use tanks to shell Russia's parliament - which was celebrated on US news shows, in government etc.
You're upholding the beacon of the US to militantly right what it had a hand in creating in the first place.
Source: i was there.
To relate it solely to or even just directly with privatizing things in the US is not only not necessary, but misleading, especially given the near 1:1 relationship of the de facto world Putin operated in early in his career as compared to what is being exposed to the west about his government's operating style right now.
Russia doling out their biggest companies to their friends turning them into oligarchs was probably a predictable outcome in retrospect. The difference between Russia and the surroundings smaller states was that it was the power center of that entire part of Europe and beyond. That huge amount of backroom power structures (not to mention the KGB) were far larger and not things that were going to fade away easily. It was primed to turn into a pseudo mafia state without proper reforms... By the people themselves, not some foreign overlord (although good advisor's always helps). The responsibility is always ultimately going to rely on people caring internally, as we saw in Afghanistan/Iraq you can't externally prop up democratic/fair organizations without local buy in and local cultural adhesion. So it comes down to what Russia could/would do themselves.
I'm curious what the alternative would have been given Russia's sovereignty. The west not getting involved and pushing raw privatization and not pushing back during the power struggle by the communist factions... I guess it would be more like a modern extreme top-heavy state-capitalism.
So basically China? The oligarchs would have to do their deals via gov annoited monopolies, being run by princelings. Elite party members rather than Oligarchs.
Or maybe best case scenario some top heavy EU style country like Belgium (53%) / France (58%) . Finland (54%) / etc where >50% of GDP is via gov (Russia is currently 36%)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_governmen...
This is a popular Putinist talking point, and like all of his other propaganda vehicles untrue.
No thank you. The fact that you insist specifically on "recent", i.e. decades after actual events and during a very specific political climate makes me 100% sure that there is zero substance.
> capital given freely
You have no idea what you are talking about right? Dude, what capital? The only capital that went through Russia were the investors buying state assets cheap and oligarchs filling their pockets for selling "well fluid" (oil, but not taxed)
(https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1117290.pdf, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c..., https://ips-dc.org/aid_to_russia/). Also Warcast from the ISI which recently did a great podcast on the subject.
On the contrary. I actually criticise dismissing all the research except for "recent". And no one actually brought up any numbers.
Sorry, what is your point exactly? It's hard to figure with link-only answers to huge longreads. I've skimmed the first link and didn't find anything contradictory.
The second link provides a quote that doesn't have too much to do with the topic at hand? Did you read every word attentively? I don't understand how a quote about someone on some economic summit making some statements and the US allocating funds for some operations (might as well be as useful as "building sustainable democratic institutes") on ex-USSR (that's not Russia) is not representative of anything.
> Also Warcast from the ISI which recently did a great podcast on the subject.
Sorry, I am sure this podcast has amazing entertainment value, but referring someone to a podcast is akin to referring to a facebook post.
> You're upholding the beacon of the US to militantly right what it had a hand in creating in the first place.
translation: Russians have no agency.
What happned in Russia post USSR is entirely on Russians and Russian culture. You should show more respect to a people and arguably a civilization than painting them as chumps that do the bidding of foreigners to their own detriment. Russia is responsible for Russia's situations. Just like we are responsible for our (equally not optimal lately) situation over in US.
+I have no idea where you get your facts: Yeltsin wasn't "Putin's protege", Putin wasn't Yeltin's protege either. The mayor of St. Petersburg was Putin's patron and he (being powerful) apparently* brokered a deal for transition from Yeltin's clique to his own (and then Putin ran with it). Yeltsin promoted Putin because he got a deal for himself and his family after the transition. That does not make him Putin's protege.
As to the tanks, it's possible CIA called and suggested something. Is this America's fault that Russian politicians overnight turn from fire breathing communist to CIA lapdogs?
Is it really?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak
* that's actually wrong. Sobchak was in exile in Paris at that time. So Putin's actual patrons in his rise may have been KGB all along.
There is the possibility that Thiel genuinely believes in such principles but voz_ would need a lot of evidence to convince the majority of the usual commentators.
I think he is the guiding hand behind the weaponization of social media on behalf of conservative/fascist interests.
My impression is that Thiel thinks (as do I - and as did, to a lesser extent possibly due to inability to envision mass media and administrative state, the Federalist Papers) that liberty is far, far more important than democracy. Given that it would be nice to have both, but then he would probably argue that the combination of constantly bribing the voters and the ratchet effect of the administrative state makes the increasingly direct democracy in the US a threat to liberty. He supports enlightenment principles, he just thinks the civic culture has degraded so far that the best bet to get them is to enforce them from above. It's not unprecedented - that is what Supreme Court was doing when it shut down things like FDR's price and wage fixing, segregated schools, and many more. Thiel wants to do the same kind of thing more, and I agree - wouldn't it be wonderful if a non-democratic, liberal (in the original sense) court could also throw away e.g. internment camps during WW2, instead of bowing to "democratic" pressure?
There's a risk here, obviously, but the tradeoff in my view is increasingly (and in Thiel's view, I assume, completely) on the side of taking a risk of having little less democracy in order to get more liberty.
Peter Thiel has a very different worldview from you. Essentially he believes that the US should have an industrial policy, but that it should be run by someone like Vannevar Bush in the same manner that he ran the Office of Scientific Research and Development during WW2. So not a command economy or an autocracy, exactly, but with maximal autonomy and minimal external accountability. It's understandable to be hostile to bureaucracy in general, but my impression is that Thiel strongly believes in the 'noble lie' and considers that the public doesn't really know where its own interests lie.
This is based on a presentation he gave at a private event some years ago. I have a lot of respect for Thiel's intellect but have some fundamental differences with his values. Anyway, don't fall into the trap of assuming that because some of your opinions/outlook are aligned with his, that you're necessarily on the same page overall.
Philosophically, I have some dissonance.
My first piece of dissonance is that if we model the world under the game of prisoners dilemma, having too much relative power creates a situation where our optimum strategy is to defect, because even when someone else defects, we can still win through superior force. This is the mathematical model behind "absolute power corrupts absolutely." So if we generate an arsenal of democracy, which is at it's core power, what prevents us from arbitrarily using it? What prevents an arsenal of democracy from becoming an arsenal of totalitarianism through democratic decay and fascist seizing of power?
My second piece of dissonance is that on one hand I believe in the 2nd amendment, but on the other hand, if we bring the idea of the 2nd amendment to the world stage, using the same logic, every country should be well armed and have nukes so that they can fight the oppressors of their state. Every country should be able to practice MAD. Why not? Who shouldn't get nukes (and using that same rule, who shouldn't get guns?)?
The third piece of dissonance is mostly pedantry: A democracy could choose to oppress or enslave others. The US was founded as a democracy, yet we had slaves. If our founding fathers had an "arsenal of democracy," what prevents them from using that arsenal to go to Africa, load people into boats, and make them labor with the threat of force here? The 3/5ths compromise is a product of flawed democracy, so "democracy" seems like a philosophically flawed idea to reference. What is good in America is rule of law (prevention of arbitrary uses of power) and human rights protected by that law. Democracy allows for a tyranny of the majority. "Equal rights under law" is the idea that gives us freedom.
My core critique of your post, while still agreeing with it and still considering myself your ideological ally, is that we have an unhanded fascism problem at home and it is very much a larger problem than a genocidal China. Without dealing with our problem at home this "arsenal of democracy" seems too easily turned into the "aresenal of oppression." Furthermore, if we dealt with this problem at home, those same power structures we have to deal with are the one's that result in Chinese and Russians being slaves to their governments.
In summary: "leading by example" is probably going to have better outcomes when our example is fighting fascism at home and having the highest quality of life rather than if our example is "build the most amazing tools of destruction so that when there is a conflict about freedom, we get to be the arbiter."
In a fight between China/Russia and the US, I support the fight.
This is why no one has a simple explanation of what their technology is ever. Also why they’ve not scaled like conventional tech companies. Just like someone like Infosys, they need forward deployed engineers for each customer to build out their information management and aggregation system.
Every part of the government, particularly defense, is made of closed-off enclaves with their own unique integration or deployment constraints, which leads to needing “forward deployed engineers” to integrate their platform for each program. This is part of the scale issue, another part is that there are only so many customers. This isn’t really like infosys at all because these engineers are not only paid very well, but they’re not straight up staff augmentation (though they can be to some degree, sometimes, especially during the training phase of getting the users to understand the platform).
Everything you said in this comment is way off I think.
I have no love for Palantir, or Peter Thiel, but you seem to be under a misapprehension about some of the basics of the company.
My only point is that they are not necessarily a bleeding edge tech company. I agree they have a huge, potentially unassailable, moat.
This announcement is not about AlphaGo or GPT level tech reaching the military. It will be perceived so and the CEO is happy to tell that white lie
Most of what I am stating comes from my own assumptions, based on the content I have consumed, since I am neither a soldier nor have been in a battlefield.
I have a ton of respect for both Palantir and Scale as companies - but this just looks like a cash grab race to see who can dupe the Pentagon the fastest into believing they need some technology that's years away from anything they should be using in practice.
Pretty worrying that there are hundreds of customers out there that they're talking to about a military AI. Given that Palantir in the past has said they might never make a profit and are entirely dependent on US government contracts, I'm surprised they're allowed to talk to that many partners.
Given it's the US, I'll cynically assume they just mean all the many police agencies, who really definitely need military grade AI, in addition to all their other military hardware to better police small towns across the country.
The book really explains the historic + larger context of the “forces” at play that has lead to people like Peter Thiel and companies like Palantir.
I am hesitant to use this system against an adversary because it can be hacked.
No capability or toolkit will solve for the core problems with the defense apparatus in the U.S.; that there's no incentive to win wars. This applies to the lowliest private, to the four-star general, to the presidency, to the American people themselves.
Until there is a system of accountability, we'll just keep throwing money at companies like Palantir – while spending no effort whatsoever on the core problem.
-Marcus Raskin, Democracy Versus The National Security State, 1976
[0] https://archive.org/details/democracy-versus-the-national-se...
Expanding: What I'm concerned about is that the US military will end up having a black box intellegence service that tells them what targets to prioritize. There will be no way to understand the thinking of why said targets are more important than others and thus no way of critizing the judgement. It's effectively an https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle.
Since the black box (the oracle) is provided by a private company there is also no realistic way of telling if they are manipulating the outputs.
Then we'll use [the equivalent of] adversarial prompt injection against them and they'll be screwed.
The "not questioning" is literally the entire problem.
If "not questioning" is "literally the entire problem", then maybe you should start questioning your quick dismissal the AI advantage.
I promise you, the U.S. government is already using AI just on the basis of vision tasks alone. Automatic target recognition is quite popular and has been for quite a while. It will not go away.
For domestic surveillance concerns, there's a thousand and one companies out there already servicing the U.S. for quite a few decades already. I don't see why these companies should not have competition in the form of Palantir.
It's in the interest of government to have surveillance both domestically and internationally. We will not see a change in this stance from any significant party. I would bet cold hard cash that if anything, surveillance will increase in budget between any makeup of Democrat or Republican congress for the next 50 years.
I'm right wing by all standards by the way.
I do worry that hyping something as “ChatGPT-like” distorts better analysis, and makes political discussions about employing AI more opaque than they should be. Maybe the way I’m more left wing is that the profiteering angle worries me.
For over a decade, police departments have been partnering with Palantir (and other firms selling decision aides) to investigate and even arrest suspects, while provide little or no basis for that action, falling far short of the legal standard required. So far, local courts have routinely turned a blind eye, since the decision to detain or arrest is largely discretionary and may not lead to charges. Of course, those caught up in such naive sweeps rarely have access to competent councel, so they frequently plead guilty to charges floated by unscrupulous ADAs, despite the inadequate / compromised / fabricated chain of evidence they were threatened with. Since the case never goes to court, this lack of evidence and abuse of procedure is never revealed.
Companies like Palantir who depend upon hiding in the shadows need at least as much rigorous oversight as any organized criminal gang receives, perhaps more.
AI does what you tell it to do. As you likely know, a NN model never outputs definitive results, we clamp/truncate them to make it so. In areas of life and death you can choose to keep this information and lay it out as part of the way for an AI to establish the reasons behind its decisions and its level of certainty.
You're describing poor practices that come out of likely poor understanding of tech, poor training, maybe perverse economic incentives for Palantir to present its technology in a more assertive way than it should, but we're simply guessing.
AI is what we make it to be, literally.