Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
bloomberg.com
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He said "we will accept defeat as we did in the Istanbul elections" but in those elections he managed to cancel the election by claiming that the ballot for the mayor was stolen when the ballot for the council was not. How convenient, since his party won the council.
Both of the ballots are voted together and put in the same envelope but somehow only one of the votes was stolen.
Anyway, before the election re-run they paid out the outstanding sums to the contractors close to them, they hired large number of supporters and did other arrangements.
The elected mayor tried to backup the IT systems before being removed and was accused with espionage.
The interior ministry recently said that the mayors in the Kurdish regions were swiftly removed upon Erdogan's request. Officially, they are removed due to terror allegations. The same guy was trying to have police force present at the election locations and doing parallel counting but thankfully the elections committee denied his request(legally, the police are not allowed more than 100 meters to the ballots unless their help is requested).
Anyway, if the results are close I wouldn't trust Erdogan to step down easily. His whole election campaign revolves around the premise that the opposition are bunch of traitors and terrorist(in literal sense. In his rallies he plays clips of the opposition with literal terrorist edited in), I don't know how he will explain to his base leaving the power to "traitors" and "terrorists".
He was expected to be the candidate for president because he is very poplar but because his sentence is longer than 2 years, once the ruling is approved(the appeal is still being reviewed by the higher court) he will have to leave his public office and go to prison.
opinion polls show razor thin margins right now and if the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins it will unlikely be by a landslide. like everyone, I would love to see a peaceful transfer of power, but a lot is at stake for Erdogan and his government. I am sure he will not be conceding immediately and he has a lot of influence over any judicial institution in the country.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2019_Istanbul_mayoral_el...
That said: I'm not sure there's much point in debating what Erdogan might do if he loses.
I think there was some news that Ünal Çeviköz, Kilicdaroglu's (opposition leader) foreign policy advisor, has sent signals that were optimistic. Additionally, it may be easier for US and EU to put pressure on the new government for approval.
It could be done in the same way that Taiwan, Japan, and SK have clandestine nuclear programs, but the easier thing to do might be to just deport people who fundraise for the PKK (who are pretty fucking terrible tbh - there's a reason they're still banned in most western countries).
It would also be a massive feather in the CHP's hat, neutralize a major reason why Turkey began buying weapons from Russia, and neutralize a major reason people have supported the AKP.
This whole PKK shitshow is Obama+Trump's fault btw - they both wanted a quick win against IS in Syria while also not using American troops. The only solution was the PKK's Syrian branch - the YPG. There was a whole US lead rebranding of the YPG in the 2014-2018 period specifically for this reason [0][1]
> Thomas said he made the Turkish concerns known to the YPG back in 2015.
“We literally played back to them: ‘You have got to change your brand. What do you want to call yourselves besides the YPG?’ With about a day’s notice they declared that they are the Syrian Democratic Forces.”
“I thought it was a stroke of brilliance to put democracy in there somewhere. But it gave them a little bit of credibility.” [0]
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-usa-ypg/u-...
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/10/09/t...
Turkey has been trying to get into the EU for decades. I've seen nothing that suggests that's because they want to move closer to European social, political and commercial customs. After all, they could do that without the EU, if that was what they wanted.
So I conclude that they just want budget handouts.
And I also conclude that their opposition to Sweden joining NATO is because it would humiliate Turkey if Sweden joins, while Turkey is still standing outside the EU, hoping.
FWIW, I don't think Turkey should be in NATO; and I don't think they should be in the EU. Not until they have some kind of reasonable governance.
Said by somebody who clearly does not understand the difference between the NATO and the EU, or the importance of Turkey in Europe.
Turkey is extremely important to NATO because a.) they control the Bosphorus b.) they have the largest armed forces in the NATO after the US, c.) their armed forces are technologically comparable to or better than most European armed forces, d.) they have historically been adversaries with Russia, and e.) from what we've seen in Ukraine, top-level politics aside, Turkey is a much more reliable material partner in the event of a war.
I'm sure the USA has very strong reasons to continue hosting its ICBMs in Turkey, even with all the issues that Turkey faces internally.
What a lot of commenters don't get is that if Turkey were admitted into the EU, it would upset the current balance between France and Germany. Turkey could easily become too much of a bigger power player within the EU if they were admitted.
...because it's in a unique location that's been a keystone of military strategy for multiple countries for thousands of years. It contains (not just controls) access between the Med and the Black Sea. It's at the boundary between the steppes, the Middle East and Western Europe.
I don't agree with the "realpolitik" notion that you have to get into bed with countries that don't share your interests, just because there is a strategic advantage to be had.
> I'm sure the USA has very strong reasons to continue hosting its ICBMs in Turkey
I'm sure they do as well. I doubt there's any need to site "Inter Continental" ballistic missiles in Turkey, though; they're pointed at Russia, of course, which is just across the border, not a continent away. Anyway, I'm opposed to nuclear willy-waving in general.
I wouldn't bet on him not pulling funny business but it's not out of the question.
We even had video records and phone records collected by the police but he got away because those who collected these records were connected to a religious cult which is very unpopular among the population and suspected of covert political actions since decades. That said, some evidence is too hard to ignore. For example, there's the case of a bank CEO who was caught with millions of dollars in shoeboxes at his home, in connection with the Erdogan alegations. He was handed back the money and left alone on camera.
There are huge number of people with grievances towards Erdogan, the population wouldn't be satisfied if Erdogan doesn't face some justice. He accumulated so much hate during his tenure and he and his family become incredibly rich when huge number of people suffered. It's not going to be a finished business without getting tried on these things.
I hope Erdogan gets voted out and faces consequences for the crap he pulled, I am skeptical though
Most litigation against Trump only really started in 2017 or 2018. A couple were thrown out due to procedural issues (blame that slimeball Avennati), but others have gone through.
Also, most litigation mentioned against Trump is in the Civil Court system, where has has faced penalties.
Criminal litigation on the other hand takes A LOT of time, especially if you hire a firm with a strong track record in defending their clients.
As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence.
There was a DoJ decision to be slow and steady on the classified information litigation probe [0]. Going fast can cause mistakes to arise, which can cause cases to be thrown out due to technicalities.
> As for attorneys defending him, please take a look at people like Tacopina. Doesn't particularly inspire confidence.
It's not one lawyer throwing a shingle outside a strip mall. Tacopina, Seigel & DeOreo is a decently sized firm for criminal defense cases, and has had decent recent successes [1]
Btw - I am not Republican and cases do legitimately take forever. Also there are multiple cases involving Trump occurring over different timelines.
[0] - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/garland-biden-trump...
For the sake of developing Turkey, it might be best for them to adopt the South Korean model of the incoming President pardoning the outgoing president of wrongdoing and ongoing crimes.
That is the only way to ensure peaceful transitions in countries where democratic norms are still being developed.
The Turkish "tradition" is to switch power every 20 years and destroy those who previously held power. Before Erdogan, the secularists were in power and they are just as corrupt and oppressive. Their dominance in business and public life was systematically eroded and unfairly destroyed by Erdogan. The new secular opposition is much more liberal and actually harbours the ideals of the Erdogan's first term when he was considered liberal.
Actually the significant portion of the current opposition which is expected to win tomorrow consist of the "light" version of the soft nationalist, peaceful islamist, economic liberals, political kurds and soft seculars.
Very ironically, the remains of the politics who were destroyed by Erdogan are on the Erdogan's side on this election: The ultra nationalist, the hardcore islamists, the social democrats(which were in power when erdogan came), the Kemalists and the Kurds with history of violence(one part islamist kurds with connections to designated terrorist organisation and one part the communist guerrilla Kurds).
It's actually immensely entertaining. Erdogan has turned into the thing he came to destroy. Even more ironically, Erdogan came into power during an economical crisis and after a huge earthquake and he is about to lose power again during an economical crisis and huge earthquake.
Yep. That's the MASSIVE downside of the Korean model and why there is an insane amount of cynicism against politicians in South Korea.
But the alternative is 3-5 years of violent demonstrations.
The Korean model of pardons started in the 1980s when Korea was transitioning from a Military Dicatorship into a (kind of) Democracy.
The elected dictator Chun Doo-hwan (1979-1988) was pardoned by democratically elected Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) who was then pardoned by Kim Young-sam (1993-1997) after being "advised" by incoming president Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003).
The same thing happened in the 2010s when Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) was pardoned by Park Geun-hye (2013-2017) who herself was pardoned by Moon Jae-in (2017-2022).
(Edit: pardons were given towards the end of the 2nd president's term, as rightly pointed out below)
All this was done specifically to ensure social stability at the expense of "true democracy", but the results show for themselves. Turkey in 2023 is comparable to South Korea in the 1980s-90s, and can only grow if bygones are kept as bygones and people concentrate on the future.
The alternative is 5-10 years of political polarization as well as incentivizing people to hold on to power to keep criminal immunity, thus perverting governance for the sake of minimizing personal liability.
Lee Myung-bak was pardoned three president's later by Yoon Suk-yeol. Park Geun-hye was pardoned by her successor but not until 4 years after she'd been removed and several years of prison.
Again not incoming pardoning the outgoing.
But big picture, Turkey in 2023 is much closer to the era of Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo socially, economically, and politically, so the same kinds of worries about political violence holds.
There are obviously pros and cons (every Korean will admit that some of these "investigations" are politically motivated hack job, they just disagree on which ones are hacks), but it does send a message that nobody can stay above the law forever, so I think it's not that bad.
The pardons usually come towards the end of the 2nd president's term (good old election season), and after the whole semi-politically motivated litigation.
But Turkey is in the same position economically and socially as South Korea in the 1980s. If they don't want another lost decade, or the return of military rule/coups and violent transitions of power, it might be best to swallow this bitter pill instead of seeing dozens of people shot in street demonstrations or a Gwangju Uprising 2.0
But it is claimed he has major health issues and current election is not doing any good on his health.
That way, you don't have an incentive to pull a Netenyahu and Obran and constantly try to remain in power to maintain criminal immunity.
So the vote count will be correct eventually even though someone can try something. There are some suspicions about the integrity of races with very small margins but overall the results are the results which people voted for.
we re talking about the head of a state that resisted the US, lived through a coup d’etat where the main suspect lives in USA. btw this Gulen guy (who’s ten times the fanatic that erdogan is) is clearly typical america playbook (just like ben laden was a cia asset, hussein as well)
Im not even backing the guy but it is neither black or white. he did move things and developed turkey to an extent few leaders could have dreamt of
Erdogan's staff violently attacked people in the US during his visit. Erdogan is supporting a radical religious takeover a secular state. He has a history of cancelling election when he doesn't like the result.
He rules in the style of Trump, ignoring the law.
trump led usa to 0 war thank god he ignored the american tradition.
* If you don't know about Erdogan, theres too much for a HN thread.
* The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to deny any country at war (not with Turkey) to deny warship passage, except to return home.
* Turkey is an incredibly important part of NATO because of their ability to choke Black Sea access.
* This has kept Russia's warm warm navy in check, particularly for the Ukraine conflict
* NATO requires Democracy and "Rule of Law" for member nations
* NATO has never had to remove a member state, and honestly nobody is sure how that'd happen
* The US leases airbases in Turkey, with nuclear penetration bombers and nuclear warheads stored on site.
* Russia has always seen this as a double standard when the US complains about Russia putting nukes in places like Belarus.
* Trump denied Turkey access to the F-35 program because they chose to install S400 systems from Russia.
* Credit due were credit due, military analysts generally agree this was a good decision, and it was at the request of bi-partisan lawmakers.
* The thought was Russia could profile F-35 fighter's radar returns somehow with S400 systems
* This is _in spite_ of Turkey committing funds to the F-35 program, which to this date, said funds have not been returned to Turkey.
My understanding is that the bombs are on site, but the bombers are not.
This from 2019 by The Federation of American Scientists supports that view.[1] "The remaining 50 bombs are for use by US jets, even though Turkey never allowed the US Air Force to permanently base fighter-squadrons at Incirlik. Jets would have to fly in during a crisis to pick up the weapons or they would have to be shipped to other locations before use. As a result, the nuclear posture at Incirlik has been more a storage site than a fighter-bomber base during the past two decades."
Lines like this always get me. It seems to somehow imply the opinion of military analysts are necessarily good for society at large, or that they're even moderately representative of the democracies they originate from.
> and it was at the request of bi-partisan lawmakers.
Likewise. What was their actual reasoning for backing this decision?
The published story is that S400 systems would be able to repeatedly profile F-35 low-observable aircraft. Eventually a probability model could be created from all of these radar returns. Turkey claims that no data would be sent back to Russia, but that was up for debate.
I'm sure there's an element of truth to the above story, but it's not the full one. My take is Turkey does seem to make NATO nervous with Erdogan's rise to power and becoming a dictatorship. Imagine if F-35s were sold to Turkey, then Turkey left NATO. Russia and China would _love_ to examine them up close (likely in exchange for free or heavily discounted arms).
That's just speculation though. There are professional military analysts with more informed opinions than mine.
Democracy manifest.
> a probability model could be created from all of these radar returns
So.. we built a weapon system who's utility is immediately reduced by the amount of time it spends in proximity to enemy radar systems? Then, we tried to use that same weapon system's manufacturing base as a means to create worldwide political allies?
And now.. because the friend of our friend is maybe some sort of enemy, we have to pull the plug on this ally?
And so.. military analysts blithely "support" this. Sounds like they're providing some exceptionally shallow analysis in that very simplistic conclusion.
> There are professional military analysts with more informed opinions than mine.
No doubt. I'm sure their analysis is more designed to benefit their sector than it is to actually inform any of us.
It's a far more complicated situation. Short answer: No. That's a naive perception of how "stealth" aircraft work.
First, it's unlikely that the F35 will ever be susceptible to a weapons grade radar lock for the frequencies in which it was designed to be low observable in. However, detecting that an F35 is present is quite useful for adversaries. These would be on non-targetable frequencies. It's in the best interest of the F35 operators to make sure that it's return signature in those frequency bands is a bit of a mystery. In fact, this is so important, that F35s are generally flown around with _intentional_ radar reflectors during all non-combat operations to keep the aircraft observable.
Second, (this is speculation I want to make that clear its my opinion) 5th generation fighters are likely "as good as it's going to get" for a long time. Within 25 years, every country will be able operate low-observable aircraft, barring some breakthroughs in quantum physics. Extending the time it takes other countries to catch up makes the investment pay out longer.
I really didn't have a good grasp on this stuff until I read up on the LRASM weapon. It's an anti-ship cruise missile fired hundreds of miles away from a moving target. During its its terminal phase, it's able to use its radar to seek its target, even if the target warship is using civilian vessels as human shields. How exactly it does this is of course classified, but military analysts (your favorite word, I know) have surmised its clandestine radar operations have been taken profiles of ships from likely enemies vs radar returns from merchant vessels. Does that comparison sort of make sense?
this is true but please explain as well why turkey is using S400 systems. Erdogan tried for years to get similar systems from the US and they never wanted to give it to turkey. Erdogan then rightfully bought S400 and this angered USA so much they removed turkey from F35; turkey then developed their own aircraft. lets also state that similar moves in drone technology years earlier by USA led turkey to become the world leader of modern drone warfare.
Turkey is presumably making a legal demand. So Twitter's choices are censor a handful of individuals in Turkey or have Turkey block Twitter for everybody. The thing that will be interesting is Twitter posting the demand from Turkey. If this is normalized, it would be another great step forward in transparency for Twitter. It'd be similar to how Google publishes DMCA takedown requests to LumenDatabase.org.
So at what point does it turn into complicity? And why should censorship of Turks be more acceptable than that of others? If Erdogan wants to go full dictator let him shut down Twitter. Whose side is Musk on?
But in any case, this is nothing at all like what happened with the US. The US government did not make legal demands, as doing so which would have run into the First Amendment, but instead made 'suggestions' in back channels, which Twitter voluntarily chose to both abide and keep secret, even when they fully recognized it was being abused. There would have been no legal justification for doing anything to Twitter had these 'suggestions' been completely ignored. So Twitter's behavior was entirely on them.
As for "sides", after Twitter's decision 99.999% (or whatever absurd decimal it ends up as) of Turkey will retain full direct access to Twitter, instead of 0%. I doubt many of them will be thrilled about these events, and can now freely express that, Streisand effect and all. I don't think he's on the side of the people nor the government of Turkey, but rather he's simply doing what he can to enable the most people to be able to express themselves.
I'm not sure if there are good arguments for complying with blackmail though, since that's exactly what governments like Turkey (and also the EU) are doing. They threaten them to either take down certain speech or the entire site gets blocked. By complying, the companies give legitimacy to those bullying tactics as well as strengthening the rule of the likes of Erdogan. They blocked Twitter a few weeks ago already, after the earthquake and following criticism of AKP. Unless it's a tactical decision before the election, it's not a good look. I personally know people who have been censored on Twitter at the demand of foreign authoritarian governments. It doesn't only affect foreigners but also dissident immigrants living in the US as a common example.
But in the US we have constitutional protections against imperiling freedom of speech, and a government determined to imperil freedom of speech. So this results in something much more akin to bullying. The Twitter Files made the leadership at Twitter look both better and worse. It made them look much better in that they often realized what they were being asked to do was wrong. They even realized they (Twitter) were being used in a government sponsored misinformation campaign - in Twitter's own words, they were "feeding congressional trolls." However the files also made them look much worse, because they also invariably went along with these 'suggestions' anyhow. Describing that as bullying would not be inaccurate.
I get you're trying to view this with more nuance but sometimes there isn't. This moral relativism is a very dangerous view actually, ultimately it boils down to regarding people in Turkey as lesser and not deserving the same rights. We're all one people. If it helps you picture it think of a US state where the local government tries to restrict speech rights or other basic rights. You would have a problem with that if it happens in your backyard, right?
- Elon, presumably
Turkey is important for NATO only because of where on the map it is. I don't think he can take credit for that.
I predict the state pollster will report, like on every election, the most favorable regions first, to dissuade people from voting.
If on this election Erdogan does not lose I pity the future of Turkey.
The reality is that the opposition has little to offer in terms of economical success. They are already promising to kick out the Arabs which many of them are investors in order to rally national sentiments. It's kind of predictable how this will go. In a few years, Erdogan will be back to power.
Similarly here is a video touring some Chicago suburbs: https://youtu.be/Ngv70I82rP4
One thing I will say is that at least in Chicago there is a pretty wide divergence between suburbs (Chicagoland is nearly 30k km2 area so that’s not surprising). But for instance you’ll see pretty significantly different wealth levels in Markham than Tinley Park even though they are reasonably close to each other.