I hope markets don't panic and I think the chances of an actual default are extremely low. However, I don't think the chances of a default are zero. Everyone I talk to seems to be saying "A devastating default [i.e. not like the brief blip in 1971] has never happened, therefore it cannot happen." Which doesn't seem like sound reasoning to me.

I imagine there's no escaping the fallout of such a default, but I'm thinking it may be time to take a break from treasury ETFs for while.