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Comment by appleaday1 | Hacker News Reader

Canada is kind of slowly imploding. It's going through a lot of crisis currently. Housing is one of the biggest ones, for example I am a housing activist and trying to do something actively about the housing crisis happening in Canada.

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Much of the world seems to have a housing crisis right now. I recall a few weeks ago there was discussion here about the housing crisis in Ireland. I'd say we have something of a housing crisis in many parts of the US as well. Not enough housing was built during and in the aftermath of the great recession - that seems to be how we've arrived at this problem. Housing is hugely expensive both to buy and to rent. It's taking a large bite out of budgets - that's the crisis. Something's gotta give.

Can you give an example of what actually happened up there? And what you are doing? I hear rumors (China!) but you seem much more knowledgeable on the topic. I live down in Seattle so I'm curious how similar the situations are.

I don't live in Canada, but Toronto has an average housing cost of $1.1 million dollars (USD)[1], which is almost as much as San Francisco (at $1.3 million dollars)[2].

Meanwhile the average salary in Toronto is $52k USD per year[3], versus San Francisco's average salary of $109k[4].

So that might give you some idea.

[1]: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-home-sales-1....

[2]: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/

[3]: https://www.payscale.com/research/CA/Location=Toronto-Ontari...

[4]: https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Location=San-Francisco-...

I’m more interested in how this happened, not that it is happening.

Out of control immigration. 10x per capita what's allowed in the US, all going to three major cities.

Not only that, but when filing out immigration petitions, most firms will actually file in Canada and the US. Workers who can't meet the higher bar for US immigration will be sent to Canada.

Immigration is actually an interesting one. There is a large amount of immigration for sure, but my understanding is that our economy will be in huge trouble without it.

We don't have sufficient birth rates to maintain things and so both economic productivity but also the tax base will be significantly harmed without this immigration.

That's not to disagree with your comment, the large amounts of immigration do cause problems and as you say, much of it flows into certain cities.

> We don't have sufficient birth rates to maintain things and so both economic productivity but also the tax base will be significantly harmed without this immigration.

With family reunification, it's not uncommon to see aging parents and relatives be sponsored. They add very little to the tax base but are a huge burden long term.

Fair point. I have no data, but assume that's a minority of immigrants.

Also, there are some requirements to support those family members:

"You will also sign a Sponsorship Agreement, obligating you to financially support your sponsored relatives if they cant provide for their own needs. The new permanent resident will not qualify for government assistance, even after the sponsored person becomes a permanent resident, separates from you, or leaves the country."

"To sponsor a parent or grandparent, you must obligate yourself for 20 years of financial support."

https://greenlightcanada.com/how-much-does-it-cost-to-sponso...

Does government assistance includes healthcare?

You need that immigration since the birth rate is below replacement. Without it the Canadian economy would be in worse shape - and there would be higher inflation. Countries with low birthrates that can attract immigrants will be in better shape than countries that restrict immigration.

Japan has been permanently doomed by economists for the same reason since... the 80's and has yet to collapse. Greater productivity and innovation can offset a shrinking population.

Canada is facing a huge brain drain to the US, for highly paid and in demand professions like in healthcare and tech. It remains to be seen whether or not they can replace the lost productivity of their native expats with mass immigration.

Having very low interest rates for too long a period of time.

That's part of it, but the other part is due to the dearth of building during the great recession and it's aftermath.

The correct answer is the cost of construction and the unwillingness to build more/higher density housing.

Construction used to happen a lot more than it does now. Demand keeps increasing, but the supply isn't increasing as fast as it used to.

Every homeowner who treats their home as an investment vehicle is game theoretically forced into NIMBYism so that the rich get richer.

The North American development pattern is unsustainable. It costs more money than to maintain than could possibly be paid for by property taxes. It's wildly inefficient in basically every way.

We've been okay for a while since we use the influx of cash from new developments to support our existing maintenance obligations, but that adds new maintenance in the future.

It's functionally a Ponzi scheme, and now it's starting to unravel. It'll happen in the U.S. too, just slower since the U.S. is bigger.

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