Startups Are Scooping Up Big Tech’s Cast-Off Workers
wsj.com
wsj.com
Last time, tech was in its infancy. There was a small universe of people who understood baseline concepts like getting to product market fit, how to measure and implement growth patterns, etc etc.
Today these are practically household concepts, and they have been for years. There aren’t a few hundred other people in SV you are competing against, it’s the rest of the world.
On top of that, there’s a tried and true playbook that large tech companies quickly put to use to capture any remotely adjacent areas of product market fit.
I’m not saying there won’t be startups - there are today of course - but it also seems like there’s a lot of wishful thinking going on. (Among founders, VCs, and billionaires who made their money in the early 2000s too. It shocks me that many of them haven’t realized that the playbook that made them money in 2008 doesn’t make them special in 2023.)
Tech has been professionalized and nothing is nearly as easy as it once was.
I'm a PM and I think veeerrrryyy few people understand this, including many of my fellow PMs.
I think it's like reading a book about how to pitch a baseball. Knowledge and application are entirely different. Someone might be able to regurgitate the theory on how to achieve product-market fit, but put them in the driver seat of a real product and lots of people flounder.
One of the most common mistakes is simply delusion - the believe that your product is 'there' when it's not. I believe there's a cognitive dissonance that impacts the product owner - you kinda have to believe (or at least outwardly project) that your product is doing well.
Preach. And the universe of people who can actually do the work to start something and get it to PMF is a pretty small subset of those who understand the concepts in theory.
Same sports analogy- it is better to be someone who can play (but doesn't know the rules) than someone who has encyclopedic knowledge on the said sport but cannot play (physical limitations).
Hum... The reason why large companies have historically been unable to do that is because nobody in them bothers to do it, not because they don't know how.
And one of the consequences of a series of mass layoffs is exactly that people stop caring about things like this.
Now, they are laying off people that went into tech because it seemed like easy money.
It's not the same caliber of tech person.
The truth: Eenie meenie miny moe
The truth: everyone knows who the underperformers are.
AFAICT, companies are both jettisoning entire departments related to bad bets (or bad business models) and preparing for anticipated recession-level revenues.
Skills are not perfectly fungible. Managers making layoff decisions based on the roles/skills they need to keep and what budget they can afford. This necessarily means that some underperformers will be retained and many overperformers will be cut.
Sure some employees on PIPs or otherwise considered low performance may be cut regardless of role. But more typically projects get cut/defunded (whether in engineering or elsewhere) and those roles are eliminated or cut back. A good performer may have an opportunity to find a job elsewhere in the company but, in my experience, that's pretty hard given that any open slots were probably also closed as part of the layoff and everyone is pretty distracted anyway.
It reminds me a bit of the argument against massive conspiracies to demonstrate how many people have to perfectly as an organization (leaving no evidence behind) and then have to stay quiet indefinitely. The larger the accused conspiracy, the more likely information is to leak.
Furthermore, having worked in big tech, most of the roles that are getting filled are essentially "busy work" - i.e here is a entire proprietary build system, barebones service and deployment pipeline, all you have to do is add logic. Someone who has worked in this type of environment isn't going to succeed at a startup where you have to build systems from scratch.
The market is still incredibly strong for SV caliber devs, and I see no signal it's going to slow down. If anything, it kept compensation for engineers from cratering by propping up the stocks.
[0] https://interviewing.io/blog/2022-layoffs-engineers-vs-other...
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/tech-layo...
[2] https://www.computerworld.com/article/3690309/about-those-te...
[3] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-03-0...
[4] https://techreport.com/news/3493451/microsoft-layoffs-ethics...
Where are they going? Genuinely curious. Where outside of the US are SV caliber devs getting paid even more than they'd be getting paid here?
I don’t agree that companies successfully filtered them out via layoffs. If anything it’s the opposite. One of the “skills” that help you avoid being laid off is to be good at office politics and gaining visibility (so the VP making the layoff decision knows your name). That skill seems correlated with ladder-climbing more than tech-enthusiasm.
Big tech employs more people than startups, which means it's more likely for someone to get a job at big tech than a startup. It's just a law of numbers and has nothing to do with whether they're suited for startup life or big tech life.
In addition, in the US, foreign students who just graduated are more likely to get a job at big tech than startup because more big tech sponsor H1B/Green card than startups. And the fear/circumstances around losing your immigration status means more of them might opt for big-tech than startup
Google for example is much more rigorous with code reviews and code quality. They maintain a high % test coverage, continuous integration and delivery… etc. startups can’t maintain those same standards and move quickly. learn the rules before you break them.
Thank God for that. Who better to look at broken processes draining productivity and then say “oh, we solved this with X, when I worked at Y” ?
Tldr; you didn't miss anything
Your other comments are good but the ones like that are destructive of the purpose here. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit to heart, we'd be grateful.
[Also, I’m wondering if FAANG are now more interested in hiring people with AI/ML experience (i.e. competition for the talent of the latest trend and so as to deprive competitors of the talent…)]
Myself, and all of members of my team in my location, were laid off 2 weeks ago from one of the big 4 tech companies. Within the 4 people on my team one was stack ranked within the top 20% of the org of ~75 engineers earlier this year and another was in the process of being promoted. The other two were new to the team.
From a strategic perspective as a company, firing us can be considered trimming the fat, but it isn't a reflection on the quality of the engineers. It's a reflection on the leadership of the engineers and if they believe they will be essential for the operation/growth of the org over the next few years.
Before this happened to me I had the same mindset that you had here -- that there was some responsibility the fired engineers had for being fired. I can tell you, from the other side, that just isn't so. The world is bigger than any single person and this stuff happens regardless if you are skilled at your craft or even liked by your coworkers.
It's painful right now for everyone who has been laid off, but from a holistic perspective, I agree with this article. It will be interesting to see what all of these people do with their talents.
Anyone know?
I feel like the world doesn’t need more saas companies or otherwise you’re doing a chatgpt api company.
One of the largest and more obvious examples in recent years was logistics. I’ve worked with a couple companies focused on this (as a contractor), and they make a lot of money from their customers by actually saving them considerably more money. One was specifically targeted at waste pickup and disposal businesses because their schedules, routes, and other variables were dramatically different from transportation of goods for example.
Then there’s a company like Roofr. They make it so SMB roofers can run their business more efficiently, generate more accurate quotes faster, and incorporate technologies like aerial drone photography to get quotes together far more professionally and correctly. Construction is a huge part of North America’s GDPs, so there’s a lot of money to be made in these niches.
I put boring in quotes because I think our industry is less excited about software like this, but I actually enjoy it a lot. I love highly focused and well-crafted software that makes a genuine difference for people who are otherwise not focused on using technology. It’s a way that software can actually improve work for people so I get a kick out of it. The feedback loop with customers tends to be tight and high quality too, so you can iterate quickly and make something awesome. This can be harder in the pure tech space, in my experience.
Also, I'd expect tight feedback cycles when all of my customers carry a nail gun :)
The economic climate has changed, but there are more problems to be solved today than ever before.
"The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun."
(Ecclesiastes 1:9)
If there's a shooting and shootings have happened before, is that not still news? It happened after all. It's got to be better than just ignoring things because it's status quo.
Just because something is a continuation of a trend doesn't mean it isn't somehow "news-worthy". The weather is entirely based on continuing trends over x periods—is there still value in knowing the weather? Of course. This is the weather of business. It's a "sunny day" in Startupville even if it's raining in Fortune500land, which is the counterpoint to the doom-peddling in other headlines.
No point in reporting on war — it’s happened before.
No point in reporting on a corrupt or lying politician — it’s happened before.
Statistically speaking, in the US, high school students were much more likely to be murdered in the 1980s than now. But just try to convince today's parents of that.
It's so refined there is pretty much no meat left in the sausage. It is an engineering project and you are the raw materials.
Whereas in Europe we're lucky to get $80k in the same jobs, and then the state steals half of that :/
In Germany you can get 6 months of unemployment insurance when starting a startup out of unemployment. Or get 6 months paid when starting a startup out of Uni. Then you could get various public funding opportunities like a startup bonus (for example 50K public funding for 50K private investment in an innovative company in Berlin).
[1] https://www.bafoeg-rechner.de/Hintergrund/art-2416-bafoeg-st... [2] https://www.iwd.de/artikel/wohnungsnot-der-studenten-verscha...
You can get a part of what you would receive as unemployment benefits as capital to invest when creating/taking over a company: https://entreprendre.service-public.fr/vosdroits/F15252
And you can also just continue receiving unemployment benefits while creating a company, as long as revenues are below a certain threshold: https://www.legalstart.fr/fiches-pratiques/autoentrepreneur/...
Then why does France have such a low rate of new business formation (5.3/1000 people) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS?most_rec...
Or as another indicator, number of tech startups per Million is 234 for the US, while only 24 for France - https://www.startupranking.com/countries
- the culture is not the same as the US. French people tend to be very financially risk-averse
- the VC eco-system in France exists but it is trash
- people who have the skills to create startups in France tend to do it outside of France because they will have access to better capital/labor markets (for example, DataDog and Docker both have french founders)
Interesting, given the number of people who claim that better social benefits in the US would encourage more startups and other business formation.
The problem in Germany and France is the VC and business culture, but thats not primarily a result of income taxes.
There are a lot of French people here in the bay area.
From what they told me, it's actually easier to come to the bay area, navigate through the US immigration system and get funded than get funded at home. Not only that, some startups got funding from VC funds with LPs... from France!
How many people went to jail for Wirecard?
None of this prevents you from 6-figure debt for something like a difficult, but largely by-the-book, birthing experience or a car accident.
Not since the Affordable Care Act of 2010. It got rid of benefit maximums and implemented out of pocket maximum. An out of pocket maximum up to a limit is a contradiction. The situation works exactly opposite, you first pay 100% up to deductible, then you pay a proportion according to your copay, then you pay 0% after the out of pocket maximum.
Annual out of pocket maximums are typically $5k to $10k for individual/family at any half decent employer.
Legally, the maximums are $9.1k/$18.2k.
https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/out-of-pocket-maximum-li...
It is next to unheard of to have an extremely large bill if you have good health insurance. Even if you do, at tech levels of salary, if you were to effectively save the extra money, you should have no problems covering it.
Dental plans rarely cover anything more than basic maintenance costs. One procedure and you can end up pretty deep into pocket.
If you require regular medication, that can run pretty deep over a year too, since pharmacare plans have copays.
Germany has a situation similar to the US where basic care is fully covered, but more complicated care is not fully covered.
That said, if my employer is going to subsidize it, I'm going to take the free money.
All that adds up to 7204 out of our pocket per year before any sort of catastrophic or even regular event like childbirth.
And we're the lucky ones
I would rather have the higher salary with student loans, my own health insurance, and no subsidized childcare than make 25K GBP (at a higher tax rate!)
I'm not against a social safety net, but I don't think the benefits one gets in Europe equals out to the higher income + lower tax rate in the states
A marketplace equivalent plan that's not subsidized would probably cost ~$1500+/month or more for a family of 4, with a decent level of coverage.
Choose where you live, who you have for healthcare, who you use for childcare/schooling.
We have the opportunity to make that choice instead of having a bureaucracy making those choices for us.
(If you are rich by most definitions) ...you get the choice
There is a cross over point for salary in US where below that, it becomes advantageous to live in EU, but tech salaries are well above this point.
After that, it depends on your living situation and family situation. Of course 200k in California with 3 kids and a house is likely going to be less than what you could make in EU.
At least in Europe you get something for your taxes (okay, except maybe Germany).
On an income of $200k in California, for example, your tax rate is something like 8% (marginal). If you total it up with federal taxes, it's something like a 27% tax rate.
You do get something for that, but it is surprising (to me anyway) for example how similar the percentages of GDP spent on social welfare are between the blue U.S. states and Australia, and how much more the Australians seem to get for the money.
Most social welfare programs that people can get in NY are niche. You generally have to meet certain demographic requirements. It also takes years of paperwork and waiting to get into anything if you aren't a single/battered mother.
I paid well over 40% of my income in taxes and had no hope of ever accumulating any assets or meaningful retirement and zero safety net if anything went south for me. My friends in Denmark and Sweden only paid a little bit more for what is effectively a cradle-to-grave nanny state. And they all manage to own their apartments.
That said, income tax is not the only kind of tax. In the US, federated government entities mean a mesh of taxes accumulate. Income tax + Payroll Tax + Social Security + Medicare + Property Tax + Sales Tax aggregate. CA and NY are a little higher than other competing states, but not by much.
So, after $185k, while you've probably already paid 7% ($14k prop) on your home, and probably another 1% (2k sales), leading to what could be considered 50.75% tax.
But if you like living without a net in exchange for high pay, by all means, come over here.
"There are dozens of us!" that are aware of how lucky we are!
Where's the European phone, the European OS. European Cloud? ChatGPT?
American engineers and companies provide the bulk of tech's value added.
> Whereas in Europe we're lucky to get $80k in the same jobs, and then the state steals half of that :/
Are those really the same jobs?
You do understand that USA rich people living of the life's of the poor?
No proper health care etc for people cleaning their flats or flipping their burgers...
And no, it's not because of reduced taxation from rich to working class, or missing taxes on property or some other policy. These policies didn't change that much in the last decade or two. Yet throughout the last decade the state and social security systems had record income, record levels of employment and managed to run down pretty much every part of the public system from education, over healthcare to defense. The money just vanished.
I am very much convinced that Germany as a whole doesn't have an income problem, but a spending problem.
To simplify it dramatically with an example, I'd rather pay $3 on the toll road and $50k for a surgery myself than pay $10 in taxes towards the road and $100k in taxes towards the healthcare system but receive both of them for "free".
I understand the advantages of a social safety net, I do. But misappropriation of someone's hard-earned money is frustrating as well.
But at least they won't put you in prison if you decide not to buy their product.
[1] https://hbr.org/2018/03/is-lack-of-competition-strangling-th...
There's absolutely an equivalent, publicly elected officials lose re-election campaigns all the time.
If a government entity wastes too much money, their budget is increased for the next fiscal year. There is no feedback loop to govern the waste.
See: Everything you just talked about and cost-plus contracts. The US demonstrates both.
You can’t opt out of high taxes.
I highly doubt either any future city government would allow all the highways to be converted to privately owned toll roads.
I don't really think "Yankee Swap" is the best model for land management, my guy.
Roads, education, healthcare etc.
Also other people work as hard as you do.
And you know of course it's better for you obviously but only as long as you are part of that group.
There is a reason why people do gofundmes after they can't work anymore.
And the riots etc? Guess what social injustice increases either your life risk or the money you spend of protecting you.
Who has most from low taxes? Rich.
And yes I know I know hn also has plenty of fang people
That would be a nice scenario to choose to be in.
However, the US _government_ pretty much spends more per-person than those countries with a social net [1]. So in reality, you're paying those taxes of those social countries and also getting to pay private insurance ontop of that. Although current taxes are lower than the social countries since the government's expenditures are debt financed but if the USG were to stop they'd have to raise taxes to pay it with revenue and then you'll be really wondering why you're paying the same in taxes as the EU and not getting EU benefits.
[1]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.GHED.PP.CD?most_...
- cities designed around cars
- bad worker protection laws
- corporate welfare first before human welfare
- monopolies driving up prices.
Walking is obviously better than not walking, but something other than cars is to blame for the ballooning of the American public. 75% of America is either overweight or obese right now. That alone puts you at risk for about a million health issues and diseases.
Do you have a citation for that? I'm seeing numbers closer to 30% (which is still bad).
"Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 73.6%"
Of course that also shows how many Americans are overweight since the scrawny track kid is considered super skinny.
There are certainly inefficiencies out there, and we should always be trying to root them out, but sometimes if you starve an organization of funding, it doesn't perform very well. Shocker!
If the last couple of years proved anything, it's that money is all made up. It doesn't mean anything, like points on HN or Reddit karma. You happen to be able to use money to trade for goods and services, but outside of that, it's a made up numbers game, like Monopoly.
https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-bracke...
So, you'd have to show that since, let's say 1940, the QoL of Americans has improved as a direct result of lower taxes.
We should be able to look at things like salary, cost of living such as price of homes, education, and food all improving against inflation. So, unless you can do that, your argument for lower taxes is baseless and without merit.
> But misappropriation of someone's hard-earned money is frustrating as well.
Hard-earned money that is earned because of the society supported by the taxes that person pays. Without that society, you would not be earning the same amount. No hard-earned money is earned by an individual in the US.
So yeah, I'd rather have single payer healthcare, and we can just fire all of the leeches.
The whole point of a single-payer system is that you will spend less, by virtue of the government using its single-buyer negotiating power to push down prices.
And also by virtue of firing all the useless parasites and middlemen that create, consume, and shuffle the mountains of paperwork that surround US health insurance, advertising, billing, etc. Unsurprisingly, these middle-men don't look kindly upon being eliminated, and have somehow convinced half the country that if it weren't for their heroic efforts, grandma would never get a cardiac shunt, and that the world would literally end if Medicare was actually allowed to negotiate drug prices.
It feels like this is the main goal.
Do you actually have any sources for this?
This is a misunderstanding. These people are not "delivering service". They are doing "governance and administration". And administration size on Germany is acting like a ratchet: growing sometimes, but never shrinking.
No one stops to ask why the program or government office doesn't do it's job well, the issue is funding!
[1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d...
[2] https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-salary-in-us/
[1] https://www.google.com/search?q=protests+by+poor+people+in+e...
In comparison, when the French Fifth Republic was founded in 1958, the life expectancy was about twenty-two years shorter than it is now. One would think it's reasonable to raise the retirement age a little to fit that.
I have a feeling it is due to high demand for those workers.
Also, SF is already over 60% rent controlled housing, so the cost of living for over 60% of the population is already being artificially reduced beneath the market. It's also interesting to note that the income level to qualify for rent controlled/stabilized housing is 77-160k a year depending on household size.
It's astonishingly expensive to live here compared to much of the rest of the country
You probably mean the US/Canada. 'America' includes South America for which this is not generally true.
However, replace 'America' in your sentence with any developed country and the statement is indeed generally true. And thusly of little value to this discussion.
Specifically it doesn't change the fact that the poor in the US are much poorer that the poor in most (possibly all?) developed countries. [1]
And I do not mean this solely in the sense of pure numbers as in e.g. [2]. But rather what it means to be poor.
I.e. how dignified or undignified a life do the social support systems of a country and the view of the resp. society on the poor allow you to live, should you fall in that bracket?
[1] https://confrontingpoverty.org/poverty-facts-and-myths/ameri...
[2] https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-gap.htm#indicator-c...
Whether you like the colloquial usage or not doesn’t change its colloquial usage nor (on review) one of it’s formal definitions.
Curious why this is a crusade you’ve joined, though.
My source[1] disagrees with your source. It seems fairly close to Italy/Spain and slightly better than the much vaunted place on HN (Japan).
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/233910/poverty-rates-in-...
Err, nope, they don't because you're looking at the wrong data. This was about poverty gap [1], not poverty rate.
I though this was obvious from the very sentence of mine you quoted. I.e. it pertained to the third column of the table in the link I posted.
According to that table, the only developed country with a higher poverty gap than the US in 2019 was Italy (US: 39.8, Italy: 40.8).
Since they were close and I didn't find current data for 2022/2023, I wrote "possibly all?" with a question mark.
As you can see in [1], in 2021 the US moved up from 2nd from last to 8th from last. I.e. better but the point still stands.
> The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America
> Demonym(s) American[b][8]
Pretending not to understand this is tiresome.
As a European traveling to South America frequently it is very obvious to me why all my friends there take issue with this. As a European this is also not my fight but I do take sides nevertheless.
From my post getting three down votes, two of which I must assume stem from this topic at least, I dare only conclude that the sensitivity is mutual.
So probably worth understanding and showing some consideration. Beers!
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/what-do...
If you want to refer to both North & South America just add an 's', Americas.
I don’t know why people from other continents think it’s some sort of gotcha to say otherwise. It’s incorrect.
I don't want to work for 5 years trapped with one employer and facing deportation with a matter of weeks if I lose my job, on an L-1 visa (and to do that I'd still have to find a position to move to in my company).
Quite a weak excuse though.
Almost $1 trillion was spent on Medicaid last year. What are you talking about?
I'm not saying it's right, I'm just pointing out that has been our schtick for hundreds of years. It's the land of opportunity, not the land of guarantee.
Absolutely.
> most people not making it
By any metric, there's at most a handful of countries where the median person is as well off as in the US. I struggle to say that most people aren't making it here; or if they really aren't, then not making it in America is better than making it in most other places.
That seems FUD. There are safety nets like Medicaid, Obamacare subsidies and EMTALA for poor.
I've seen a recent trend in churches, where they use their excess funds to buy people's medical debt out of collections and forgive it. It's the best thing I've heard in a long time.
I also have been recently battling with Blue Shield of California (but they're all bad). They were denying me my medicine, in a similar way that Cigna was proven to deny claims by ProPublica recently. I also found out that a few years ago Blue Shield of California was stripped of its non profit tax benefits because it had billions in surplus that it was just sitting on, you know, making profit. Since then they seem to be spending money to out their names on things like opera houses in SF and advertising, but not putting it to work in the community to make real impact.
I propose we create a movement that demands that insurance companies use their excess profit, etc. to buy people's medical debt and free them of it. How do we get this movement going? Blue Shield of California alone has hundreds of millions a year in surplus, that would buy out billions of dollars in medical debt for people and completely change many people's lives for the better.
Blue Shield of California had a net loss of almost a billion dollars in 2022[0]. Should they do the reverse in that case and put their excess loss by putting more people in medical debt?
[0]: https://www.blueshieldca.com/en/home/about-blue-shield/corpo...
As you pointed out, they are being run very poorly, while the top executives still take home million dollar salaries (1) and have been spending money on things like the Blue Shield Field Club at Oracle park.
If they do the work, I'm sure they can do right by the general public and their customers, they are currently not. They have a 1.1 star review with 800 reviews on Yelp, it's lower than the San Francisco DMV which has 1.8.
(1) - https://www.payersandproviders.com/node/1509#:~:text=Accordi....
Your source shows ~375k to 2m non-business bankruptcies filed per year over the last twenty years, not all of which is primarily due to medical costs (but there appears to not be a definitive source of data on this), out of a population that went from 282m to 331m over the same time. So 0.1-0.7% of the population files for a personal bankruptcy every year for any reason, which is a far cry from one quarter of the country being on a brink of a medical bankruptcy.
Everyone knows healthcare costs are problematic in this country; no need to resort to hyperbole. Let's stick to the facts.
Edited to correct a typo
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35899436.
Having worked both in small (<100 people and sometimes <10 people) startups and now in Big Tech(TM), it’s not necessarily clear to me that one’s better than the other. They’re different, but working in a startup is not clearly _worse_.
Assuming you're not sealioning, FAANG employees have a reputation for being entitled: see the famous "What, sushi again?" quote.
(The site hosting the original article seems to down: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waze-ceo-skewers-silicon-vall...)