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Comment by barbegal | Hacker News Reader

They have at least attempted to compare these excess deaths with a model of Covid excess deaths (although models are always wrong to varying degrees)

The most interesting thing to me is how younger ages who previously haven't been affected much by Covid seem to have suffered this past winter https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

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at least from people around me in Germany "younger people" seem to have been more affected by bad Covid cases then at any time before

like in my extended family/friend cycle Covid cases where people needed multipel weeks to recover from where rare before this winter, but not rare this winter

but due to changes in how Covid was handled in general I'm wouldn't be surprised if less then half the cases ended up in any Covid statistics

through then concluding from your personal environment to all of Germany is query a far stretch

I’ve observed the same in my peer group. There’s a reason Instill wear an N95 whenever I’m out and about and it isn’t totally impractical.

My personal pet (non scientific) theory is that repeated infections over-sensitize the immune system, almost like an allergic reaction or something. Many of them seem To be on their 3rd or 4th rodeo at this point. Comments like “the first two times it was just a cold, this time it was like a really really bad flu” are common.

Do you have a theory for why COVID would behave in a novel way with respect to worsening on repeat infection? I have not heard of this type of behavior for other viruses. In general there seems to be a willingness to grant COVID special powers among viruses, e.g. the whole “maybe natural immunity doesn’t work at all!” saga. But maybe this does happen for other viruses and I just haven’t heard of it?

Weakening the immune system is not an uncommon property of viruses and Coronaviruses are know to not engender long term, durable immunity. So, with COVID, what we have is not “special powers,” but a combination of both qualities in a more (at the population-level) virulent disease. Natural immunity for COVID works pretty much the same as it does for other Coronaviruses (you can get the same one multiple times per year), but that’s problematic given the disease’s overall severity and propensity to damage people’s immune systems in a way that makes them susceptible to other illnesses (see the recent spate of post-COVID fungal infections).

Dengue is such a virus: repeated infections get worse.

Quoting: 'repeated infections over-sensitize the immune system, almost like an allergic reaction or something."

Try the 'R' in the (Strain-) Sequency (RRRRR) maybe it matches your thought (not an expert...) regards...

> My personal pet (non scientific) theory is that repeated infections over-sensitize the immune system, almost like an allergic reaction or something.

There have been a few variants that have a markedly change in their ability to spread and also their severity. They might be hitting people differently. I mean, if the same person is getting infected multiple times with carrying degrees of severity, something is changing in the infection.

With every mRNA vaccination, the risk of getting (at least) COVID19 rises more.

Just look into the studies of 22 and 23.

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