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Well you need both, a great idea and great execution. I agree with your sentiment though that execution (and timing) are the differentiation.

A decent idea and great execution is often enough.

And a deep or wide, or preferably both, market. Without this last ingredient, all you have is a hobby project.

fair, but I was considering that part of "decent" in "decent idea".

With AI making execution bit easier, the idea will become relatively less cheap.

Technically, you are necessarily speculating....an idea that does not occur to many people during real time cognition.