It would have. But decades of war in Afghanistan and the pouring of USD by America, disregarding the very fact that they are funding a well known and open military dictatorship, has kept the country floating.
It is in a deep cycle of debt and has no meaningful economy to speak of.
Doing arm chair analysis on macro economics is quite hilariously ignorant. If you're so sure, why dont you short the indian markets with your life savings.
I'll take predictions that won't happen for 100, Alex.
I'll give the country 10 years to implode
more inclusive, social justice oriented, and less violent
I do not mind views that are diametrically opposite to me. But, every article in western media seems to be written by someone who is 1 degree of separation from the Indian opposition. The claims are never backed by statistics, and the infographics are often so absurd that I have to wonder if I live in an upside-down world. Apparently, India has the 150th [1] least free press in the world and India has been a country with on average 2nd highest chance of genocide [2] for the entire last decade. Dig into their data a little bit, and you realize that they either only interviewed opponents of the current govt. or used zero data what-so-ever.
Note: Modi is the world's most popular leader[3]. About 20% of Muslims and 30% of Christians voted for his 2nd term[4]. For reference, Republicans have never been able to come anywhere close to 20% of the black vote-share, and no is claiming that America will collapse when a Republican wins every alternate election.
The opinion of the average HNer on India, is as bad as a Q-anon supporter on American issues. I apologize for the somewhat angry tone I take on these threads. I do not intend to start a culture war. But when ignorance and arrogance are paired this frivolously, I can't help but respond in kind.
[2] https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org/countries/india
[3] https://morningconsult.com/global-leader-approval/
[4] https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/06/29/nationalism-...
[5] my previous rants on the matter - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
Let me be clear. I am not a Bhakt, don't particularly love Modi and have complained quite often about bad policies during his regime. My goal is to help people build a representative view of India, not one that fawns over Modi.
The BJP absolutely pushes for Hindutva, but 'Hindutva' is an umbrella term that can mean anything from 'places greater importance on cultural traditions that have been in the subcontinent longer' to 'murderous nazis' depending on who you ask. Since you asked the question, it would help if you specify what you mean by hindutva.
to your question--> what does 'inclusivity' look like? If inclusivity is complete blindness towards religion in front of the law, then you get France style secularism which BJP pushes. On the other hand, you have the Congress's secularism that is in complete contrast to those values. In that sense, both the BJP and the Congress are secular parties, without agreement on wat that term means.
85%+ of Indian muslims are pasmanda low-caste muslims. The previous govt. (congress) did not have a single pasmanda muslim represented in their govt. The BJP is now reaching out to them directly. India never had tribal representation at the national stage, and the BJP elected a tribal woman to the presidency. The BJP has time and again, promoted meritocratic candidates over nepo-babies, making the electoral system more inclusive. India is a not a nation divided on religion alone. It is mostly divided on economics. By focusing in more effective governance and distribution of social welfare, BJP's govt. has disproportionately benefited the poorer population of India. These policies do not discriminate by religion or any other identity. Western style views of inclusivity do not translate well to other nations.
As for the bills like CAA, removal of 370 and the like. The Congress's own policies show that these had bipartisan support up until the BJP brought it up. I don't blame them, politics is politics. But, in isolation, both parties acknowledge that these were necessary changes for national security. The CAA was initially instituted by the Congress itself and the sorry state of section 370 at removal was also a result of bipartisan erosion of that bill over time. (it was meant to be a temporary provision anyway. But I won't get into that right now).
Discussions around vague words like Hindutva and inclusivity are never productive. It would be more helpful to define what we mean by these terms. Create a list of policies implemented by the Modi govt. over the last 8 years and compare those against the govt. that came before. If there is a clear trend that emerges, then we can play ball. Or else, it is all smoke-and-mirrors.
somehow "more inclusive" than the policies that preceded it?
If I could give you points for humor, I would.
Congress supports religion specific exceptions for personal laws - marriage, inheritance, etc.
BJP stated policy position opposes this, which by definition is more close to French secularism.
I don't even like BJP, but y'all seriously need to get over your Gell-Mann amnesisa.
I am a Bhakt. I became one after I voted for the first time in 2019. I had to choose between Congress and BJP at that time and I decided to go with Congress because I hated Modi for the 2002 riots.
Afterwards, I had a nagging feeling that I had been conned. I am a 90s kid and am staunchly anti-Congress. I have seen first hand how they have ripped off millions in scams and destroyed India. It's almost as if the British loot of India never stopped. But how did I end up voting for corruption then? The con finally dawned on me when I realised that they point at Modi and vilify him not because he's anti-Muslim (he's not) but because he's cleaning up the mess. He is delivering on growth and and transforming India at a rapid pace. He's going to be the Deng Xioaping of India.
However, I was branded as a Hindutva fascist as soon as I voiced my support for him. And I have embraced that term fully. I've studied Hindutva and have turned into a complete Sanatani. My goal in life is now Moksha!
One of my greatest regret in life will be that I didn't vote for him in 2019. I am writing this from the queue of Karnataka assembly elections. I voted for him today.
This is my one hope for India. I disagree with pretty much everything else you've said, but I'm not as worried for India's future as I was previously; because I've come to realize that economic development is probably the best way to actually accomplish social justice - there's a strong correlation between countries becoming poor and them becoming more authoritarian and less fair.
So, even if he squishes press under his thumb, even if Muslims feel 10 times less safe, even if the autonomy of states is being eradicated to centralize all the power in their hands... I hope all of this at least results in significant economic improvement, and makes things work out in the end.
I would also have you take a hard look at the fascist speeches of sitting ministers advocating for violence in India. All of these are documented and the perpetrators and sponsors of this are in government without consequence.
To make matters worse, the administration seems to be gnawing at some independence the supreme court shows by wanting to take over the appointments of Judges. It even gives judges plum positions post retirement for favorable judgements. Need I say more?
Without a course correction, I'll give it 10 years.
for social collapse, 'Pew Research' has conducted stellar surveys. I'd start there. Another solid metric is low-income refugees. If a measurable number of low-income minorities start leaving India for countries of slightly higher average income (eg: Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia), then it's either a sign of collapse or religious authoritarianism. Differential rights is another sign. say for instance, if there exist specific laws that only Indian minorities have to follow nation-wide.
As for press freedoms, every political opposition party should get to have their own newspaper that can be freely shared on social media. ie. exception to exclude any party that actively seeks independence from India. Private universities should be allowed to teach anything that is constitutional, ie: don't teach violent fundamentalism or birth based bigotry. I should be able to call Modi any non-caste-based slur (Fascist, Bigot, Loser, etc.) on social media without getting a case thrown against me or violent assaulted on the streets. The front page of the Caravan or Scroll.in (online subscription based news media, subscription so I know they will be alive unlike ad reliant ones) should still contain a scathing accusation towards the BJP as it always has.
For economics, poverty and safety, the numbers should be easier to obtain. Proxy metrics like electricity availability, internet availability, infrastructure building and use rate, etc. are also great.
Those are my metrics on 3 fronts.
Execution style hit jobs on rivals? When did these happen? Are you simply making up executions in your mind?
Claiming India will collapse in 10 years is one of the weirdest statements I've heard in a long time. Which countries will not collapse according to your standards then? I'm honestly asking - no major country seems to be surviving the next 10 years as per your worldview.
I'm open to debate, but you seem to be inventing executions in thin air.
Sources: https://ncrb.gov.in/en/crime-in-india-2019 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/117-lynching-inciden... "ADL Report: At Least 50 White Supremacist Murders in 2018" by the Anti-Defamation League: https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-report-at-least-... "What We Know: The Far-Right and Extremism in 2019" by the Anti-Defamation League: https://www.adl.org/resources/reports/what-we-know-the-far-r...
You haven't heard of Uttar Pradesh?
They're not carrying hitjobs on rivals or opponents - they're eliminating gang leaders and major criminals. The judiciary is either afraid of giving these gangsters actual sentences, or have been bribed by the gangsters. To solve this, the police has effectively taken the execution of justice into their own hand.
I know it may sound absurd, and the idea of the police taking matters into their own hands would normally scare me, but Uttar Pradesh seems to be an exception. The rule of law has broken down so completely it needs the law to be broken to be brought back, if that makes any sense to you.
The gangsters that were killed were a bit like the mafia in that sense - everyone knew they were crooks, and everyone knew what they did. It seems the tipping point for the ruling party to execute (or 'encounter', as it is called in India) these gangsters is when they kill policemen. Since the judiciary will not punish them, it becomes necessary for the police to inculcate a fear of the police in gangsters' minds in order for their policing activities to actually be effective.
Except that some of them were rival politicians. I'd also want you to look at the number of criminals elected into power before you tell us that "but those killed were criminals, so it's okay." It's systemic rot. Due process doesnt exist in some places and mobs rule.
You see the issue I have with people like you on forums is that you depend on westerners not knowing the details of these things in your country. Your messages appear referenced etc showing that you took time to make those answers, but you seem to miss key points, selectively.
Unfortunately, I did not do my due diligence and visit each link - the links seemed to be authentic, and I went along with it. ChatGPT gave me the number 41 and the links that I have mentioned above.
Now that you have pointed it out, I tried visiting those links and the pages seem to not exist. I also put them in the Wayback Machine, which says it hasn't archived them.
That's why you'll notice the statistics are for 2019 - the pandemic is not yet part of the equation and I expected ChatGPT to have information for 2019.
I fear ChatGPT may have 'hallucinated' the data and the links. I can't seem to find a reliable source for the 41 lynchings. As such, my comment above stands moot, and I hope it is ignored - I can't seem to find the delete option.
I do sincerely apologize. It was not my intention to spread misinformation. I didn't do my due diligence, and now know better.
Hilarious.
https://indianculturalforum.in/2021/01/08/behind-bars-arrest...