De-dollarization: Not a matter of if, but when
responsiblestatecraft.org
responsiblestatecraft.org
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-d...
"In a Monday note, strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year."
You can make the argument that the decline of this number will be a lot slower than 2021-2022 going forward, or that it will perhaps bottom out at a relatively high number. But the trend is there.
The US is willing to go to incredible lengths to prop up the world financial system. No other country is willing or able to do that, including China.
So far, none of them have had any teeth and it is unlikely that it will happen anytime soon (not in the next 50-100 years).
Consider that if the US was in Libya's relative standing, an external actor of such magnitude could easy have interfered to make Jan. 6 into the start of a civil war. If then you have a foreign country getting involved militarily, it can end however you want. This is true of basically any country in the world.
This is exactly what is downtrending. Nations fear being sanctioned and holding on to dollars they can't use
> and most stable(military/economic might/feed back effect from being global currency)
This is also what is being questioned. There is domestic turmoil and the US economy is funky.
I'm just paraphrasing Ray Dalio's recent discussions and extensions on his dialogue on the rise and fall of nations.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-factory-boom-drives-sa...
It's not enough for the US/dollar to have problems, the alternative would need to be far better, and there would need to be huge capacity for everyone to be able to buy in without massive market moves leading to a catastrophic stampede for the exits.
I personally think we will see (and are in fact already seeing) a gradual shift from absolute dollar hegemony to a more mixed picture but I think it will never amount to actual 'dedollarization' but more likely a situation in which you can trade in RMB, you can trade in EUR or you can trade in USD and there will be an increase in Eurobonds etc where nations raise debt in these foreign currencies as well as USD or their domestic currency to provide trading liquidity.
A decentral global reserve currency is not a global reserve currency, that is a global price index with local bank specific currencies denominated in that price index.
My hope is that my country can maintain dollar reserve status for another decade, but that might not happen. I may be wrong, but I think de-dollarization will be gradual with other currencies seeing slow increases in use for international financial settlements. I think that a fast transition would be bad for most of the world’s population.
Other replacement currencies will need to be much more stable and liquid than the dollar. It is not possible today.
But it is right in its sentiment. Most other countries are tired of American sanctions sending generations into poverty. For them, finding anything else is a no brainier. If they can find any currency to replace their trade with, they'll take it in a heartbeat.
US does not impose sanctions on the only basis of "hey, we don't like them, let's ruin their lives".
In each case there is a reason, you know, like a blatant violations of human rights, mass rapes, ethnic cleansings, things like that.
If some country is bothered that other countries won't be continuing doing business with it because US sanctioned it then it is implied it intends to do something of the above. I really and sincerely hope its not "most" countries out there.
Consequently, it's not the US that "sends generations into poverty". Typically it's the ruling class who, being bored out of their minds due to their needs being met by their appropriation of national wealth, decide to do something normally unthinkable for "reasons". And let's not forget that people always have a choice of leaving or changing their government.
It is actually good that there is a power on the mudball that can if not coerce idiots to behave but at the very least impose so much pressure they cannot enjoy their lives as if they did nothing wrong, without military involvement.
Some of those sanctions are for these reasons. Others are for geopolitical reasons.
Imagine China imposing sanctions on America for geopolitical reasons such that you are unable to buy food for your kids. This amount of power is never admired.
They don't care at all, it never mattered.
Absolutely don't agree. People definitely don't typically have that power. In authoritarian nations not even motivated majorities might not be able to overthrow their government.
It's a quite rude thing to claim, implying that any time there's a cheating, lying, corrupt bastard leader around, it's because their people choose them.
I'd argue that in the last decades revolution has actually become increasingly difficult because law enforcement authorities benefit a lot from the improvements to surveillance and communication technology.
The people are almost always to blame for their authoritarian leadership. I'll give a pass to a few people, such as the Kurds in Saddam's Iraq who actively resisted his rule, but generally speaking the people are the ones ultimately to blame. It's quite rude to claim that people have no agency and somehow are magically forced to do the bidding of a geriatric leader.
When it comes to certain historical events or experiences, there are nuances that can only be truly understood by those who have lived through them. This does not mean that those who haven't experienced a particular event or lived through a specific period of history are incapable of contributing to the discussion or forming valid opinions.
The world we live in is indeed far from black and white. It is filled with shades of gray, and acknowledging this complexity is essential when discussing matters of politics, power, and oppression. Recognizing the intricacies involved helps us avoid oversimplifications and enables us to delve into a more comprehensive analysis.
Opressive regimes throughout history have demonstrated their ability to manipulate people and gain and perpetuate power. It is a phenomenon worth studying and understanding. By examining historical examples, we can gain insights into the factors and mechanisms that contribute to the rise and longevity of oppressive regimes.
Revolutionary movements do exist, but they are often the result of a long process that builds up over time. Social, economic, and political factors intertwine in complex ways, eventually leading to significant changes.
Of course, this is indeed true. We can see it in Russia today, with so many people believing the lies from the regime, and security forces working to suppress outside news or views. But this doesn't excuse those people IMO. Committing a horrible crime against a victim because someone else convinced you that the victim somehow deserved it does not excuse your crime. If you pull the trigger, ultimately you're responsible, not the guy urging you to do so. The Nuremberg trials put to rest, for once and for all, that "I was just following orders" is not a valid defense. If we want to progress as a species into a future with a more peaceful and enlightened society, then we must hold everyone accountable for their actions, regardless of how deceived they were.