idk, I get way less abuse on the Fediverse than I ever did on Twitter. There is definitely drama out there, and the mastodon.lol debacle was well, ridiculous. (As Douglas Adams said, "People are a problem." -- that's not going away no matter what nifty new protocol you come up with, unless it exclusively routes to /dev/null.)
My point was more that there's no real profit motive to Mastodon, so it can't fail in that sense, which is generally what we're talking about when we're talking about web services.
If 75% of the new people on Mastodon eventually go to BlueSky, the people who remain will probably be perfectly happy to remain on Mastodon, and I don't know how one can call that a failure.