MSFT exec admits console wars are over: ‘We lost the worst generation to lose' | Hacker News Reader

MSFT exec admits console wars are over: ‘We lost the worst generation to lose'

fortune.com

47 pointsforuhar60 comments

This is just PR to pretend their deal with Activision wouldn't result on a oligopoly, what a coincidence

Exactly!

While typically I think that more competition is good, I always shuddered at the possibility of Microsoft gaining an upper hand on the gaming market (for that matter, I wanted the Stadia to fail badly for the same reason).

The amount of damage to the market those big tech companies could do was immense. I'm okay with Sony and Nintendo calling the shots there.

Hopefully, Valve can make some strides in the PC market with Steam Deck. Things are too concentrated on Windows as it is

If this is sincere then it's a heartbreaking moment of reflection and clarity for Microsoft - albeit with the success of game pass I don't think they're going to be too sad about the relative poor performance of XBone and Series X.

If it's a cynical play to appear vulnerable so that they're in a better position to appeal the UK CMA decision then I think they're going to have to come up with more than the "poor little us" story when they still have $69bn knocking around for the acquisition.

The console wars will be over when Microsoft ditches the XBox and uses the PC as their platform. I don't see that happening for the next generation.

> If this is sincere then it's a heartbreaking moment of reflection and clarity for Microsoft

Don't worry; it isn't.

That’s bs, you can’t say console war is over because we lost but still have the most anticipated game (for Bethesda fans at least) exclusive in the console market

I would believe them when I see Forza, Halo and other xbox games on PlayStation

The PS4 outsold Xbox One so badly that Microsoft stopped sharing the numbers.

The best we can tell right now[1], PS5 has outsold One S/X by about the same 2:1 ratio, and the Xbox didn’t spend a year struggling to stay in stock.

From a fan’s perspective, I can certainly see why a “console war” might be measured by how many good titles they have. But these businesses are generally interested in making money.

[1] https://www.ign.com/articles/best-selling-video-game-console...

> …the Xbox didn’t spend a year struggling to stay in stock.

The Xbox Series X was nearly impossible to get at retail for two years, and is still difficult to find unless you pay $100-200 more for a bundle.

It's not at all surprising to me that a console launch is going to do poorly if it can't be purchased without dealing with scalpers.

That’s true. They sold a version that was basically a last generation console and apparently easy to manufacture and keep on shelves, but the X did struggle like the PS5.

While the Xbox Series X, like the PS5, was extremely difficult to obtain due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Series S was relatively easy to purchase. In fact, the Series S outsold the PS5 in Japan during the weeks when PS5 supply was low.

Wait the ratio is only 2:1? From the original article and your first sentence I was expecting Xbox to be on the verge of a death spiral, not getting as much as 50% of PS5 sales.

It’s still a console that sells an enjoyable experience. But the “war” is over if the top competitor is doubling the next top.

I don’t think the end of the “console war” necessarily means going out of business or abandoning hardware altogether.

They're saying they lost the console war because they're trying to get a big acquisition approved. They're trying to sell the story 'see how weak we are... we need this to remain competitive'.

It is a fact that Xbox One/Series has inferior sales to PS4/5 in almost all countries to varying degrees. In fact, other than the CMA in the UK, which has taken issue with cloud gaming, have regulators in other countries approved Microsoft's acquisition of AB on the basis that it would not reduce competition, based on Xbox's share of the console market? The UK should also be of the opinion that there is no problem if it is only consoles. I think Spencer's argument is rather counterproductive as a rebuttal to the CMA, since he is not talking about consoles, but rather about cloud games, mobile games, etc., which are the main areas of focus.

Most expected games inorder

1. TotK 2. Spiderman 2 3. Starfield

And each is exclusive and only Starfield comes on PC. What are you talking about?

TotK = The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom

To save anyone else the googling I had to do....

not so expected after all if i can't figure out the acronym

Spiderman 2 will probably come on PC in a few years.

Starfield will come on pc same day as xbox. There's a difference there.

Are you really serious with your comment?

you can play the new Zelda game on PC right now though

Not officially though

- Confusing naming conventions. Xbox, Xbox 360, Xbox One, Xbox Series X. Compare to Sony's Playstations 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Names matter enormously. There's a reason why FAANG and FAANG-tier tech firms all have very simple names. While that may be far from the only reason why these companies are so successful, it matters more than one thinks.

- Lack of AAA exclusives. Halo is the main one, but Sony has God of War, Ghost of Tsushima, all the Spider Men, The Last of Us, Gran Turismo, and others.

- Price. The PS4 was cheaper than the Xbox One by $100, and this mattered to parents who could afford to gift their children a $400-$500 console, but not a $1,500+ gaming PC. This matters less in the North American market, where people have more disposable income, but East Asian and European markets are safely in Sony's pocket.

- Controllers? There is a meme that Xbox controllers are designed for large, "American" hands. Regardless of the truth, memes and perceptions shape decisions.

- Sony has the Japanese market locked up. Xbox is the dominant console in the US, but its dominance is weak: 53.3% vs. 46.65% for the Playstation.[1] Which begs the question: why hasn't Microsoft crushed the competition in its prime domestic market, but Sony crushed theirs in Japan?

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1044948/market-share-of-...

> FAANG and FAANG-tier tech firms all have very simple names

Erm... really? Let's just take that one at a time, shall we?

F - Facebook. Or should we say Meta? Home of the Oculus Rift and the Oculus Quest, if you can remember which of those is which. Sorry, that's now the Meta Quest.

A - Amazon. Such clarity of naming. Everyone knows they have a product called 'Alexa', right? And of course, to get that, you need to buy an... Echo. Or an Echo Dot. Or an Echo Studio, or an Echo Show?. Obviously it's clear what a Kindle Oasis is, compared to a Kindle. And then beyond that of course we've got the wonder that is AWS product naming. Aurora, Kinesis, Fargate, InfiniDash, Athena, Elastic Beanstalk, Route53... Clearly a model of clarity.

A - Apple. Absolutely, the home of the iPhone 14, the iPhone 14 Pro, the iPhone 14 Plus, the iPhone 14 Pro Max, and the iPhone SE, or the Apple Watches Ultra, SE, Nike and Hermés could never be accused of confusing product naming.

N - Netflix. Sure. You know the difference between Netflix Basic, Netflix Standard with Ads, and Netflix Standard, right?

G - Google. Right. Google Workspace, Google Docs, G Suite... or Youtube Premium vs Youtube TV...

You're right. Not a one of these companies would name product tiers confusingly.

Google? Don’t you mean alphabet?

That’s the company that has that chat product gchat/hangouts/meet

> Controllers? There is a meme that Xbox controllers are designed for large, "American" hands. Regardless of the truth, memes and perceptions shape decisions.

A bit out of date, but this was the Penny Arcade about the original XBox controller:

https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2001/08/29/you-know-what-...

The Duke doesn't get enough love.

Well, you know what they say about men with big hands.

"No."

They buy an Xbox.

I despise all things Microsoft but the 360 and later controllers are excellent designs and are possibly the best standard-issue console controllers ever. I will die on this hill.

Sony's stubborn refusal to modify their basic controller shape/layout in the last 28 years isn't admirable and is not endearing them to people with good taste (i.e., me).

And yes, I am aware that I just declared myself willing to die on a hill while simultaneously criticizing Sony for dying on a hill.

That's entirely subjective. I vastly prefer the Playstation controller layout myself.

   > Sony has God of War, Ghost of Tsushima, all the Spider Men, The Last of Us, Forza, and others.

I imagine you mean Gran Turismo, not Forza.

Looking at the current generation is already too late, MSFT had shot themselves in the foot with previous generation. The Xbox One was a disaster and squandered all the inroads they had made with the 360. They spent an entire generation trying to win their own fanbase back after the missteps with Kinect and always-online. The PS4, on the other hand, won a lot of momentum that had lost during the PS3 era.

> They spent an entire generation trying to win their own fanbase back after the missteps with Kinect and always-online.

Another thing that really wrecked the Xbox One was their original intentions of locking discs to consoles to prevent game resale. It was a PR disaster of the highest order that they never recovered from, even after backtracking relatively quickly.

> Confusing naming conventions. Xbox, Xbox 360, Xbox One, Xbox Series X. Compare to Sony's Playstations 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Names matter enormously.

It all goes back to Microsoft not naming the 360 "Xbox 3" with some lame excuse for why it did so. Yes, everyone would have laughed, but no one would remember or care today that the "Xbox 5" isn't actually the fifth Xbox.

3, 3.1, 3.11, 95, 98, ME, XP, Vista, 7, 8, 10, 11

It's just not something they're good at.

The famous “You can’t send message because user is offline” Ms Office Communicator aka Lync aka Skype for Business aka Microsoft Teams.

> When Adobe finally got around to sprucing up the Macintosh version of Illustrator, they cleverly called the new version Illustrator 88, because it appeared in 1988. You could still buy Illustrator 88 in 1989, though. And in 1990. And even into 1991, when it was finally replaced by Illustrator 3.0. Adobe is not a marketing company.

(From https://www.cringely.com/2013/03/14/accidental-empires-chapt... )

What about Nintendo?

   Nintendo Entertainment System
   Super Nintendo
   Nintendo 64
   Gamecube
   Wii
   Wii U
   Switch

doesn't run so much in that awkward zone where the names kind of suggest they denote an order but not really. Not perfect, but still better then MS.

And Super Mario is an NES game?

There was Windows 1.0, 2.0, 286, 386, as well as the 3.11 for Workgroups. And NT 3.1, 3.5, 4.0, 2000 before XP.

They had a good excuse for skipping 9: lots of old code did something like if verson.startwith("9") to cover 98 and 98. Because Microsoft, they wanted to keep 20-year-old apps working.

Calling it the Xbox 3 would have been super confusing given it was the follow up to the original Xbox. 360 wasn’t a bad name — at least not compared to the One (which _was_ the 3rd Xbox iteration) and One X followed by the terrible Series S/X nomenclature of the current generation console.

Wouldn't the 360 have been Xbox 2?

Sony has Gran Tourismo, Forza is a Microsoft game.

Speaking of which, there's a movie coming out. Trailed dropped 4 days ago. Another big win for Sony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVPzGBvPrzw

And in my case the xbox was too thick to fit in my TV stand so I had to switch to the ps5...

That’s deeply surprising for me - the Xbox series X is admittedly a weird shape, but the PS5 is way bigger overall. Though the PS5 certainly is a more traditional shape. When you say thick, I assume you were thinking of placing the consoles horizontally?

PS5: 15x4x10 inches Xbox Series X: 12x6x6 inches

the stand looks like something like this (a similar model): https://ikeahackers.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/lack-tv-u...

The available height of the space underneath is 14.8cm. The xbox series x is a square with a side of 15.1cm. The PS5 is only 10cm thick and fits without a problem.

- Confusing naming conventions

It's a Microsoft tradition: see .NET Core, .NET Standard, .NET Desktop, ASP.NET, etc

Kind of the end of history. There's just so much longer periods for consoles. You're stuck with what you ship for a long time, the memories keep enduring, the next thing isn't right over the hill.

The core problem MS has is that, it is bad at studio management and simply does not have the same creative vision. Hence the playbook of buying big studios. If they can fix that they’d be fine. Using Sony as a comparison is not ideal, Sony buys comparatively small studios and nurtures them to big IPs. It’s not the same thing, despite the complaints from MS. Recent Redfall release is a classic example.

This is based on the Phil Spencer interview by Kinda Funny. The major point was that as consoles transitioned to online digital libraries, the customer investments into those account-bound libraries really helped crystallize the console preferences.

The result is that there are only so many big bets you can make to try to win customers over to your console, because the majority have already become relatively locked into their platform.

With that perspective, if you want to expand your customer base you release things on other platforms like PC, Switch and cloud (which is itself a multi-faceted opportunity as infrastructure improves). That said, it's not impossible for momentum to build over the next decade where console growth could become a bigger part of the story than it currently is.

Kinda Funny Games - Phil Spencer Interview: Redfall Reviews, Activision Deal - Kinda Funny Xcast Ep. 137

- https://youtu.be/yKwfEQ1eEyM?t=2167

“It’s just not true that if we go off and build great games, all of a sudden you’re going to see console share shift in some dramatic way. We lost the worst generation to lose in the Xbox One,” the Microsoft exec said.

—-

This is why MSFT wants to pay $69B for Activision Blizzard. Because Phil knows making better games is worthless and wants to ensure they burn through all that cash to make sure it doesn’t accidentally get used for something useful. Give me a break.

While big corps spend money on consoles in an attempt to dominate the living room, I have noticed an increasing number of shopping malls offering pay-as-you-go console booths and VR arcades. Are business-oriented consoles becoming a thing?

You mean making a comeback? kinda noticed this with VR boots Maybe it depends on the country, I remember back in the PS2 era a lot of cybercafes in my hometown had sections where you could rent time to play competitive games, a lot of teenagers would go and play mini tournaments.

I've never played them but I assume for-business consoles must have some different offering than home consoles. Like roaming profiles, etc.

I think that in the heyday that parent (but not grandparent) is referring to, all that you needed to maintain state was to have a memory card of your own. I remember playing GameCube games at a local video game cafe place when I was a kid, and I would either just play a game from scratch with whatever card they had lying around, or I would bring my own memory card.

https://archive.is/IFZCE

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