Comment by arcticbull | Hacker News Reader

Comment by arcticbull | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

> As though "hey maybe these shots which are known to cause a lot of people heart problems ..."

Let me stop you're right there. This isn't true. The rest of your argument follows from this faulty premise.

> There were 1,626 cases of myocarditis among more than 354 million primary doses given between December 2020 and August 2021. This research was published in the journal JAMA on January 25, 2022. [1]

That is objectively and subjectively not "a lot." That's 1626 out of 354,000,000. 0.00045%. 0.45/100,000.

> There were 37 cases of myocarditis among more than 81 million booster doses given between September 22, 2021, and February 6, 2022. This research was published by the CDC on February 11, 2022. [2]

That is objectively and subjectively not "a lot." That's 37 out of 81,000,000. 0.000045%. 0.045/100,000.

The reality is with 5.56B people vaccinated, if it had any effects, it would be clearly and plainly visible in population-level data.

You are wrong, the monitoring is extensive, the vaccine is safe, and this is settled science.

ergo, MSG.

[1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e1.htm

The Thai prospective study of these shots in adolescents found biomarkers of cardiac disturbances in 3% of subjects who took them. That's not just a lot, it's a HELL of a lot. If the number is within even 1/100th of that for ~40 year olds it would still be 1 in 3,333, which is far higher than what used to be considered an acceptable adverse event rate.

What's even more absurd is that that kind of study was never even conducted as part of the broad clinical trials in the first place.

> The reality is with 5.56B people vaccinated, if it had any effects, it would be clearly and plainly visible in population-level data.

And indeed it is, as I've already pointed out. Excess deaths are remaining stubbornly high in highly vaccinated countries.

It's amazing to me that the CDC is leaving completely embarrassing numbers up like the ones you cite, but I suppose they have no shortage of suckers ready to believe and repeat them.

What on earth Thai study are you talking about? I provided my sources.

> Excess deaths are remaining stubbornly high in highly vaccinated countries.

That, not to put too fine a point on it, is because everyone became fat during COVID lockdowns.

> About 42% of U.S. adults reported undesired weight gain in the first year of the pandemic, with 29 pounds gained on average, a recent survey shows. [1]

An average increase of 29 pounds and a drinking problem for half the population is going to do a hell of a lot of the heavy lifting (pun intended) in regards to excess mortality.

I look forward to your theories on the moon landing, cadet ;)

Again this is all proportionality bias. Excess mortality is up because we're fatter now. Substantially. Off an already high baseline. And we drank a lot.

[1] https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2021/03/one-year-pan...

That Thai study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36006288/ Looks like the actual number was 2.33%, which is still completely godawful. Funny how you haven't heard of it! If you actually believe the CDC when they claim there have been <100 cases of myocarditis from these shots I have a bridge in New York to sell you.

Those are doses given to the entire population, not stratified by age! No shit you aren't going to see the signal when your bury it under an avalanche of old people who have heart attacks more or less every second.

37 out of 81,000,000 carries no signal. This isn't SETI.

The overall incidence of myocarditis is 10 to 20 per 100,000 so the data here is probably indistinguishable from population level noise anyways. However it's like 0.145% in actual COVID cases.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com