I would bet money against that. Replicating GPT-4 pre-training with current hardware would cost about 40-50m in compute. Compute will continue to decrease in cost and algorithmic improvements may allow for more efficient training, but probably not 3 orders of magnitude in a few years. I think there will be plenty of open source models that will claim GPT-4 quality, and some of them will be close, but they will be models that used millions of dollars (probably from some corporate benefactor but possibly from crowdsourcing) in compute to train. You will probably be able to fine-tune and run inference on fairly cheap hardware, but you can't cheat scale. It's going to take a major innovation to move away from the expensive base model paradigm.