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FiveThirtyEight had about a 1/3 chance of Trump winning, far higher than anyone else was modeling. And he was one of the few pundits openly talking about how it wasn't some insane longshot. I have no idea where this meme came from, but it's annoyingly persistent.

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You mean >50% isn't a lock? /s

I remember this. Tough spot for NS. I remember thinking that 2:1 Hillary and three language around it, came across a useless hedge. In retrospect, I think he'd have gotten more respect if he shouted from the rafters that Hillary doesn't have a lock and Trump could really win. Then, he'd have been heralded as a genius. Strong forecasting, weak marketing.

Maybe, but that's basically asking him to develop the opposite of the personality type that makes him abnormally good at forecasting.

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