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Comment by d3vmax | Hacker News Reader

My theory is the Russians blew up NS1 / NS2 to cause pain to the EU over the winter and gain an advantage to show that EU needs them. With increased gas price and inflation, they were hoping the EU citizens would protest and decrease support towards Ukraine. Fortunately, the winter was not too cold this time and gas consumption was lower than previous year usage.

(NS1 & 2 = Nord Stream 1 & 2)

[Video] Russian gas giant Gazprom is purportedly taunting Europe with a cold and dark winter as it cuts supplies: https://youtu.be/n6GTKgVJrIo?t=29

Classic Russian playbook. Lame propaganda.

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> My theory is the Russians blew up NS1 / NS2 to cause pain to the EU over the winter and gain an advantage to show that EU needs them.

Neither NS1 nor NS2 were in use; the only scenario that really makes sense for Russia is that they new Europe wasn’t reversing course on Ukraine without some additional threat, and thought that blowing up NS1 & 2 would make an effective threat against Baltic Pipe.

The “Ukrainian-friendly non-state entity did it to foreclose from European states the option of resuming gas purchases from Russia” idea is not (in motivationbterns) implausible.

> ...the only scenario that really makes sense for Russia...

Dictatorships don't come without an internal power struggle. Your logic depends on a view of Russia as a single self-serving entity.

> Your logic depends on a view of Russia as a single self-serving entity.

No, it doesn’t, though if you’d like to elucidate your theories on other scenarios that make sense for Russian state-affiliated factions to have attacked NS1 & NS2 based on analysis of interests of conflicting power centers in the Russian regime, I’d be interested in hearing them.

I’m not at all unaware that there are such conflicting power centers and that a lot of action by Russian state and state-associated entities is explained by their conflict rather than their shared interest, but I don’t see any additional plausible NS1/NS2 attack rationale out of that.

I thought NS1 was in use.

Yea, what you say makes sense then.

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