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Comment by runako | Hacker News Reader

Microsoft has to be calculating whether to (temporarily) pull out from the UK as a result of this.

Their sales there are in the neighborhood of $5B annually (~2% of their overall run rate). Add a guess of $500m for Activision's UK sales for a total of $5.5B.

The hit to sales would be temporary; the UK government would eventually capitulate as their citizens revolt at not being able to buy Windows or Office. (Yes, there are other options but a sudden loss of access to Microsoft products would be devastating.)

Based on the numbers, it's not clear to me that the UK has the leverage to stop this merger. If they were still part of the EU, this calculus wouldn't begin to make sense.

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I highly doubt that Microsoft is going to go nuclear to acquire ABK. I don't think this merger is do or die for them. It would also do irreparable harm to their brands, including the UK Xbox owners who would no longer be able to play their games!

That would be a country/corpo war and too cyberpunk to my taste. I don’t agree with the decision, but this is not the way to solve this.

That's the interesting thing here. Unlike recent regulatory actions by the EU, there doesn't appear to be a solution provided other than to let the UK CMA make business strategy decisions for Microsoft.

I don't think it is necessarily how Microsoft will proceed, but it would be irresponsible for them not to consider such an approach.

I also do think the CMA is overplaying its hand; sooner or later they will make a decision like this and a company will pull out of their market. Alone, they simply don't have the economic heft to regulate global companies domiciled outside their borders.

MS cannot possibly do this, it would mean giving up any business with NATO. It’s insane to me that a game studio acquisition gets such emotionally charged responses.

> MS cannot possibly do this

They obviously can. They don't operate in every country in the world, and there is nothing forcing them to operate in the UK. It would be irresponsible not to consider a move like this weighed against the relatively small contribution the UK makes to their global revenue.

> giving up any business with NATO

I am suggesting that they have to be weighing temporary loss of the entire UK market; losing direct purchases by NATO would presumably be smaller than the entire UK market.

This isn't emotional at all. I am just suggesting that it has to be something they are considering as an option for completing the merger that their executives believe is important. Relatively speaking: they are willing to spend 14 years of their UK sales to buy Activision, so presumably they think it's important.

> their citizens revolt at not being able to buy Windows or Office.

The UK will probably allow those to be sold.

If MS refuse to sell them, the politicians will just spin it as Microsoft vs the UK and get everyone worked up over “sovereignty”. Maybe even fund and promote a standardised Linux Desktop distribution to replace Windows … which has a chance to spread in popularity worldwide.

Either way, Microsoft might be jeopardising future sales of its products in the UK by going on the offensive. It might also make other countries’ governments warily of the company and impacting sales in those countries too.

It would leaves the market wide open for their competitors to claim without any resistance from Microsoft as well.

> The UK will probably allow those to be sold.

Fair! Playing it out...if the UK allowed Microsoft products to be sold, but not products from the gaming division, that also might cause consumer unrest. Other than fines and/or preventing sales, there aren't all that many sanctions available to regulators in a situation like this.

> Maybe even fund and promote a standardised Linux Desktop distribution to replace Windows

I'm old enough to have gone all-in on Microsoft alternatives around the turn of the century. European countries have been pushing initiatives like this for decades without meaningful results. Maybe this time it would work?

> It also leaves the market wide open for their competitors to claim without resistance from Microsoft.

This could be good overall for the long term of the software ecosystem, although the sudden transition would be detrimental for UK citizens in the near-to-medium term.

> but not products from the gaming division, that also might cause consumer unrest

Some people will complain. Others will just buy a PlayStation. Sony can even "sweeten the deal" by giving discounts on the console and maybe talk publishers into allow people to swap their Xbox copy of a game for the PS version for maybe a small fee, and come off looking like a hero.

Basically if the Xbox gets banned in the UK. It's pretty much free real estate for Sony and Nintendo to move in.

> I'm old enough to have gone all-in on Microsoft alternatives around the turn of the century. European countries have been pushing initiatives like this for decades without meaningful results. Maybe this time it would work?

Frankly, no one has really made a focus effort to replace Windows. It's more trouble than it's worth. But if MS declares war on the UK and Windows is out of the picture ... and once the ball gets rolling and should a standardized Linux Desktop get critical mass, there is a chance it can become an viable competitor to Windows worldwide.

Don't be absurd. Microsoft and AB decided themselves to make their deal conditional on the CMA's approval. They're not going to pull out of the UK market. I'm amazed that this kind of take rises to the top of the comments.

No.

But I'd absolutely love to see one of the big guys try this, it would be super interesting to watch.

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