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Comment by illiarian | Hacker News Reader

Cloud brought in ~1B dollars compared to previous quarter. Yet Google's overall net income is 1 billion lower than a year ago.

So:

- ad revenue is down (that's 80-90% of all of their revenue)

- all their expenses are way up (cost of revenue 1B up, R&D expenses 2.3 B up, sales and marketing costs ~0.7 B up)

- "other bets" losses increased are 400 million higher YoY

- unallocated corporate losses are 3B higher YoY

But google cloud (which includes both GCP and Google Workspace) is 191 million in profit. Must be nice, I guess.

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> - unallocated corporate losses are 3B higher YoY

$2.5 billion of that is charges related to the layoffs.

> - all their expenses are way up (cost of revenue 1B up, R&D expenses 2.3 B up, sales and marketing costs ~0.7 B up)

Likewise half of this (i.e. you're double counting). See the table on page 3.

> - ad revenue is down (that's 80-90% of all of their revenue)

78% is not 80-90%. It's impressive that you managed to quote a ridiculously large range, and still get it wrong, in a discussiong about the earnings report.

The ad revenue from Google properties, not from the display ad network, is up.

> 78% is not 80-90%. It's impressive that you managed to quote a ridiculously large range, and still get it wrong,

I couldn't care less to calculate it this time. It fluctuates around the same number YoY

> The ad revenue from Google properties, not from the display ad network, is up.

And that somehow makes it less of an ad revenue? Or different? Or something?

> I couldn't care less to calculate it this time. It fluctuates around the same number YoY

Uh-huh. It was 77% in Q4, 79% in Q3, 80% in Q2. It has not been 90% for a decade.

> And that somehow makes it less of an ad revenue? Or different? Or something?

So you weren't making any kind of point when saying that ad revenue was down? If that's the case, I'm happy to also pretend that I'm also a member of the non sequitur club.

Thank you for softening the blow, but frankly it doesn't soften it much.

If growth rates continue for 5 years, Cloud will print ~$10B per quarter in profits in 2028 - that's about 50% of search currently...

That would make Cloud by itself one of the 50 biggest companies in the world in terms of profits...

Companies are valued at profits for 10+ years. So Cloud continuing its promising growth trajectory is a very good thing for investors.

Obviously growth rates are unlikely to stay as high as they are for 5+ years - but the outlook for Cloud & Google - is still very promising.

> If

If. Would. etc.

It could also not grow, and slip back to losing billions.

> Companies are valued at profits for 10+ years.

Wat?

> It could also not grow, and slip back to losing billions.

It's been growing at similar rates for 13 years - rate of growth slowly decreasing.

It's way more likely to continue at it's rough trajectory than to have a sudden massive reversal.

But, sure, anything is possible. Google could also get obliterated by an alien civilization. Not gonna bet on that scenario, though.

Cloud is Google's first serious source of profit that's entirely unrelated to ads, so yes, it actually is a pretty nice.

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