Depends on how supply performs relative to demand… price is just a function of the balance between these two. Fossil fuel consumption is still growing globally, and faster than production.

So prices currently look set to rise. Higher oil prices make renewables look relatively more attractive though, so its a bit reflexive

Would be interesting to see expert analysis, but I imagine it's really hard to know how every player will react.

As (if?) likelihood of a demand collapse increases, I imagine some fraction of potential suppliers with ~easy/cheap oil left would have a healthy incentive to open up the supply for as long as it takes to force everyone with ~hard sources to wind down, leaving them to price-set the long-tail?

Hopefully the price of any PoW crypto is sufficiently low that it doesn't make marginal economic sense for any players to extract-and-mine?

Oil benefits from scale of demand and excess demand. I don't see how reducing oil demand down to only those who can't switch from oil would do anything except increase the price. Making oil more niche of an application can only increase its price in the long term.

This is of course assuming the current price is somewhat competitive.

That’s what they’ve been doing.

They will try, and it'll work for a while, but they won't be able to maintain it, and doing so would speed the death of oil

As EVs get cheaper to buy, and more importantly, to run, the petrol-fueled vehicles start to become uneconomical. As use declines, availability of fuel declines, as petrol stations become more unprofitable. Further encourages EV adoption. Range anxiety now comes to petrol-powered vehicle owners as it is now for EV owners, further incentivizing the switch.

While the general impression is that this will be gradual, I think it will be a gradual decline, then sudden, as the overall inconvenience and cost levels cross. Then some minor precipitating event changes the overall mindset, and petrol-powered cars become a perceived liability, and those still stuck with them will barely be able to unload them.

As the decline happens, OPEC will surely try to manage the price of oil, but with demand declining, one of two things will happen. To the extent that they keep the price high, they speed the transition away from oil. They are also much more likely to fail, as the US is now a major producer, and has every incentive to work against OPEC. Plus, their friends are gone. Teh car companies figured out in the 2008 price spike that the oil industry is NOT their friend as that economic crash and oil price spike forced them to look over the cliff of doom as auto sales nearly stopped dead. Then we saw Russia's blatant attempt to use their oil & gas supply to blackmail the world into yielding to their genocidal invasion of Ukraine. No rational businessman now thinks that the oil industry is a reliable supply partner, and will cut them out of the equation at the first opportunity. The oil industry and countries may have some good days ahead, but beyond the intermediate term, they are absolutely screwed.

OPEC only produces about 30% of the world's oil.