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My bigger concern is just how damn reliable new vehicles are. The average age of a car on the road today is like 12 years. Even if we start selling 100% electric cars tomorrow, the curve is a lot fatter and the cut over slower. On the other hand, this is a great thing because it will smooth out the transition

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Gas stations going under may really accelerate the tail end of the process. Their business model is going to break down, and then range anxiety for gas/diesel will make them less viable.

Do they even make money off of gas?

Not really, but that doesn't mean they would continue to exist without it.

Maybe. Range anxiety is less of an issue. A 2021 Toyota Camry has a 15.8 gallon tank. Functionally 500 miles of range. Even to reserve a few gallons we're at 400 miles per tank.

Probably what would happen if this was a real concern is they'd just make the gas tanks bigger. It's not that hard to do so.

I've seen estimates that cars in the US are scrapped at approximately the same rate new cars are being sold. Somewhere around 12M - 15M per year. That's less than 10% of the estimated fleet, but still consequential.

I'm not sure how to reconcile these figures with the apparently growing average age of the fleet. I suppose it means there are a lot of early deaths for relatively new cars due to accidents and other calamity.

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