We are so close to something amazing, and scary.
We are so close to something amazing, and scary.
Maybe we do.
I’m not sure how to define it, but new should be a discovery or insight or even relationship that is not explicitly taught in the training data.
If we don’t then it suggests without humans in the loop that the super intelligence is not so close?
Most people forget that there is no memory or thought independent of whatever the output it generates.
But when you ask it to follow a chain of thought and generate it in the output, the eventual conclusions it lands on is scarily human.
People asking ChatGPT for word counts and sighing at how wrong it is. Yeah of course, it has no counter variables to hold numbers and increment them. It has no memory.
But when you ask it to generate a numbered list of all the words in a passage and then output the word count, it gets it right every time. Because you basically gave it a memory by encoding the counter in the generated output.
I have tried this so many times for novel problems and no matter what I do, it eventually recognizes what we're trying to solve and determines it's unsolvable. Since nothing new comes out I can only attribute the times it does seem to do symbolic manipulation as regurgitation.
Probably bugs will happen in the interface between human language and the symbolic reasoning. But that happens with humans too.
https://gist.github.com/int19h/428cea1d87dfc389b99de1b79727f...
What I found really amazing about this particular experiment is that the schema I gave it didn't contain any information that could be used to query for things like distances between places, and yet it came up with the idea of using settlements' culture as a proxy to determine "border fiefs", completely unprompted (and yes, it actually is a very effective proxy for this particular case!).
I wonder now what it would do with Prolog - or maybe Datalog for simplicity? - although that might depend on how much of it there is in the training data. Do you know if anyone tried it yet?
A good example is all those toy examples of "Program a whatever in the style of Shakespeare and David Bowie's love child". This isn't a thing that it has seen in training data.
I saw an example in a Numberphile video where they were able to take the vector of the word "prince", subtract the vector of the word "man", add the vector of the word "woman", and the resulting vector was closest to the word "princess". So in theory there could be a "gender" dimension and a "position of authority" dimension in that vector (or the model might be making other, stranger connections between words that we don't understand).
I think the same thing is happening in your example. The model identifies and produces output that keeps it in the general region in the vector space for the "Shakespearean" and "Bowiean" dimensions while still satisfying other requirements.
It's phenomenally impressive, and may be a stepping stone to models that can come up with new ideas, but I don't think we're there yet.
LLMs seem to be able to capture the idea of Shakespeare and Bowie's styles, and intuit a combination of the two, but when I start asking it questions about what it thinks about the process I don't get the impression of any understanding. It can magic up text from prompts but it doesn't understand what it's doing.