Comment by retrocryptid | Hacker News Reader

Comment by retrocryptid | Hacker News Reader

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My brother's new Tesla cost $76,000 more than my used Fiat 500. The fiat gets something like 26mpg in the city and 34 on the highway. If gas is $5/gal, then it's going to be 400,000 miles or so before the cost of gas equals the $76,000 price differential.

(It occurs to me I didn't even factor in the cost of the electricity to pay for miles his Tesla drives.)

I'm also driving a car with about half to one fourth the environmental impact to construct (if you think the impact is proportional to the construction cost)

I'm about 60,000 miles into owning the car and aside from typical maintenance and a fuel recirc solenoid that had to be replaced, it's not been that expensive to operate.

It has the benefit that no one seems to want to steal it, so my anti-theft package is just to park it next to a Mercedes or BMW.

My battery has never spontaneously ignited and it doesn't cost $24k to replace every xxx-thousand miles.

But it's not all roses, I don't get to ride in the HOV lane, but that's fine. I'm a socialist and prefer the HOV lane be used for HOVs which are CONSIDERABLY more eco-friendly than ANY single-occupant electric or hybrid.

My Fiat is pretty peppy for an ICE vehicle, but yes, not nearly as good at low end torque as EVs. But it's much better than the '71 VW bug I learned to drive on.

But I think my point is... the upfront cost and TCO differentials between ICE and EVs make it difficult to support the argument "EVs are cheaper than ICEs"

They will be, someday. But that day is not now and that vehicle is not a Tesla.

Your brother didn't need to spend >$76,000 more than you did on a Tesla. I see used Tesla's in my area for sale <$30k.

Except that the Tesla he wanted at the time he wanted to purchase it was $76,000 more than my Fiat. The existence of $30k Teslas at other points in spacetime do not change that fact.

If we rework the example with a $30k Tesla, that's still $26k more than my used car, which brings the break-even point down to about 150,000 miles (if you assume electricity going into the EV is without cost) or somewhere around 225,000 miles if you go with the previous poster's assumption that price per mile is one third of an ICE engine.

I (absolutely) got a cranking deal on my Fiat. But if you compare a new Tesla at $35,000 with a new Camry, it (the Tesla) is starting to look more compelling, but as long as ICE vehicles have functionality left in them, it's probably more environmentally conscious and economically sound to drive them.

That being said... if you want a Tesla, get a Tesla. But if your objective is to drive around cheaply, I don't think it's the cheapest option.

But if you're comparing the break even costs you should really be comparing a cheap used version of the car instead of a high end version as you're comparing it to a ludicrously cheap counterexample.

His $80k Tesla was $2M cheaper than a Bugatti Veyron. Clearly Tesla's are way cheaper than gas cars. I don't understand how anyone can afford the millions of dollars gas cars cost.

Or maybe $4k cars that aren't absolutely falling apart and Veyrons aren't the most useful yardsticks of car pricing. I definitely understand the $4k used unicorn, I drove one for years. But IME the vast majority of $4k cars are priced that low for a reason.

I can find a used Bolt for ~$20k pretty easy. Most decent used gas cars are probably going to be around $10-14k. Let's say $10k price difference. At $3.50/gal, 25mpg, 12,000mi/yr, that's $1,680 in gas. At 4mi/kWh, 11¢/kWh, same mileage that's $330. $1,350/yr cheaper, so from energy cost differences that's a seven and a half year break even on 10k difference. If your ICE was $14k, that's only four and a half years.

And that Bolt probably just got a brand new battery from the recall, meaning it'll probably last at least a decade (probably more) without any major maintenance issues. Meanwhile that $10k ICE probably needs a new timing belt soon, probably has some aging motor mounts, and maybe it isn't always shifting into third gear very well.

I'm definitely not telling you to throw away your $4k unicorn. It's good you're getting a lot of life in it. I'm just suggesting that acting like EVs cost $80k and ICE cars cost $4k is stretching those markets to the point where it's pretty unrealistic to most buyers.

Also, that point about batteries spontaneously igniting, I've seen neighbors houses burn down from ICE cars spontaneously igniting. I see gas cars burning on the highways pretty regularly. I've had cars have recalls telling me to park outside. Gas cars catch on fire all the damn time.

> His $80k Tesla was $2M cheaper than a Bugatti Veyron. Clearly Tesla's are way cheaper than gas cars.

Silly comparisons are fun I suppose, but for someone who is poor ultimately the only comparison that matters is how much will it cost this year.

The cheapest non-salvage Tesla I see on craigslist right now is 30K. I also see tons of 2K-4K Honda/Toyota/Mazda cars that will give someone plenty of low-cost miles for years to come. It is not realistic to think a poor person will buy a 30K car on the hope that in a few decades the operating costs will break even and eventually save them money.

> At 4mi/kWh, 11¢/kWh

Here with PG&E they charge 33c/kWh after midnight, or 56c/kWh during peak hours.

Even if electricity was free, it would take 10s (if not 100s) of thousands of miles to make up for the initial price difference. But the future isn't written yet. It's entirely possible that gasoline will be $10/gallon next year and electricity may be free. In which case, it will only take 175,000 miles to break even.

Also, I think we're conflating two stories here. The first is about the SPECIFIC example of me and my brother. He bought an expensive car, I bought an inexpensive car. It's going to be at least another 300k miles before my gas expenses meet the price difference. At that point he can certainly start teasing me about how expensive my car is to operate. But I will still be able to call him a reactionary imperialist whose only interest is cheating the proletariat out of their right to travel in the HOV lane unimpeded by bourgeois singletons.

The second story is the general case, where someone who needs a car wants to compare the total cost of ownership of a Tesla vs. some other random non-EV. Let's also make the other random non-EV reasonably nice because if you're bougie enough to consider a Tesla, you would NEVER be seen in a Hyundai Accent. Bing tells me the MSRP on a 2023 Camry is $27k which is DANG CLOSE to a current Tesla after you throw in government credit. But the Camry can go 500 miles on a tank of gas and if you get the long range Tesla, the price starts going up. So there is a bit of a question here about how you might use your car (I mostly only drive city-to-city and use a bus in town, like any civilized person would.) But, I think the point here is the break-even point is MUCH lower than in my case.

There's also a third story I think is a little outlandish because we're comparing frightfully expensive cars with Teslas. This is where we compare the 2022 Rolls Boat Tail at $28M to the standard Model 3 after all the price cuts Elon's been talking about lately. If you can afford a Rolls Boat Tail, you don't care about how much gas (or electrons) cost. You would probably NEVER be seen in a standard Model 3. I think you would have to get a plaid and then gold plate every surface. Or maybe palladium plate every surface because someone told you gold was passé.

It's silly to compare the cost of operation of two cars that aren't in competition to be purchased by the same person. You should compare the kinds of cars you'd be likely to buy against each other, or the kinds of cars your brother is likely to buy against each other.

A model 3/Y purchase price is pretty much at the average new car price, so a person looking for a new sedan or mid sized SUV would look a step further and look at things like total cost of operation.

Again. My original comment was in response to someone who asserted it was ALWAYS less expensive to operate an EV than to operate an ICE vehicle. Which is all manner of wrong.

I gave a specific example involving an expensive EV my brother bought and a remarkably inexpensive used ICE vehicle I purchased. I did not say that every comparison of EVs with ICEs would exhibit the same relative costs. I was talking about a SPECIFIC example.

We're I logician I might refer to this as an existential: there exists one. I am not arguing it is a universal.

But if someone says "all EVs are less expensive to operate than all ICEs," then to disprove that statement you only have to find a single counter-example, which I did.

Finding a single counter-example to the universal does not imply the obverse of the universal. In other words, saying "hey, I bought a cheap used ICE vehicle and it is considerably less expensive to operate than my brother's EV" does not mean I am arguing "All ICE vehicles are cheaper to operate than all EVs."

I am happy that you like the model 3/Y and wish you many years of happy driving. <snark>At least until you have to sell your children to afford the replacement battery.</snark>

> For city driving, I charge at home for around 1/3 the cost per mile compared to filling a comparable ICE vehicle with a poisonous combustible liquid.

That's all the person you originally replied to says about cost. You emphasize ALWAYS and use the keyword operate, but you've self inserted the extreme always condition and ignore what operate means.

You're adding the word "always" and completely ignoring the "comparable" aspect. These two words radically change the meaning of the comment you're arguing against in your mind and what's actually written in the comment.

> all EVs are less expensive to operate than all ICE

The only comment in this thread with that language is your comment right here.

> At least until you have to sell your children to afford the replacement battery.

I guess ICE cars never have substantial drivetrain failures which ultimately result in the cost of repairs exceeding the value of the vehicle? The transmission in my 2000 Accord was starting to experience issues, how much would that have cost to replace? And then on top of that, it probably needed an EGR cleanout again along with a new water pump and timing belt. I don't know how many more years the catalytic converter would have lasted, those are cheap though right?

I guess all of those things are pretty cheap, what maybe $50 each right? Wait, rebuilt transmissions are like $2k before labor? Having someone replace the timing belt and water pump is almost $1k these days, and that's something I'm just supposed to do every 60,000mi or so? How many thousands of dollars was already spent keeping that car running?

Meanwhile the battery is practically the only real drivetrain wear item on an EV. No catalytic converter to rust or walk away, no EGR system getting clogged up, no timing belts to fail and destroy the valves, no valves getting gunked up, no piston rings to foul, any seals are under way less stress and far less prone to leak, coolant systems are practically never stressed and under way less pressure and aren't a tiny seal away from making forbidden milkshakes, etc.

If your argument about EV battery life is based around the battery only having a 10 year 100,000mi warranty, I'd hate to break it to you about ICE car warranties these days. Clearly just about every ICE car is just going to fall to pieces at about 60,000mi. Or maybe many vehicles vastly outlive their stated warranty times.

> Here with PG&E they charge 33c/kWh after midnight, or 56c/kWh during peak hours.

Sounds like a good reason to avoid areas served by PG&E.

Sure. But he didn't buy a Bugatti Veyron and I didn't buy a Tesla. He bought an $80k Tesla and I bought a $4k used Fiat.

Again.

If your objective is to drive around cheaply, neither a Bugatti Veyron nor a Tesla are your best bets.

> My battery has never spontaneously ignited and it doesn't cost $24k to replace every xxx-thousand miles. > But it's not all roses, I don't get to ride in the HOV lane, but that's fine. I'm a socialist

Can't tell if joking. I guess you read about exploding Tesla batteries in Pravda?

People with families can't load their kids and dogs and luggage into a cute clown car like a Fiat 500. If it suits your needs better that's great. I downsize even more and ride a motorcycle. These things aren't comparable.

The market for $75,000+ cars is small by definition there's really no need to throw shade like this comrade, the comparable cars are in the decadent luxury segment to begin with - which Tesla happens to be dominating for a reason. Horses for courses.

* https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/tesla-car-bat...

* https://batteriesnews.com/fully-involved-tesla-car-fire-take...

* https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/tesla-electric-car-fire-...

And not in cars, but still batteries manufactured by Tesla:

* https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/tesla-megapack-fire-highligh...

* https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/tesla-megapack-battery-caugh...

But sure, Tesla batteries never catch fire.

Sure. Every singleton I see in the HOV lane really has a dog and two kids stuffed in the trunk. I just can't see them.

If you want a $75k+ luxury car, by all means, get one. But you're crazy if you say it's cheaper than a $4k used ICE vehicle, which was the initial claim. It's also crazy to say a $75k+ luxury car has a lower TCO than a $40k 2023 Camry.

Also, socialists don't call each other "comrade." You're thinking of European communists [*], and I suspect South American communists. But when I talked with South American communists, they just called me "Amigo."

Interesting fact I just learned: they're apparently still publishing Pravda, but that is not where I heard about Tesla battery fires. I learned about them from living down the road from a power station where Tesla batteries caught fire. Sort of a "Hey! I wonder where those fire trucks are going? Is that smoke coming from Moss Landing?" sort of moment. And while I often wonder if NBC, CBS and CNBC are crazy, they are not, as you suspect, outlets for Pravda.

* Or possibly French social democrats. It's hard to keep up with French political fashion.

> But sure, Tesla batteries never catch fire.

Stop that. I did not say never. Gasoline cars explode too, I saw it in a blues brothers movie. Same as you, I've also seen a car fire in real life with the trucks and sirens and everything. Fires are a thing, the night is dark and full of terrors.

Sometimes civilian planes drop out of the sky or even get shot down. Even humans on occasion "spontaneously combust". I can link you news stories demonstrating such events, yet here you are in the day to day not paralyzed by fear of it happening to you. I assume.

> Also, socialists don't call each other "comrade."

Astute. I am not a socialist, amigo. Myself, I was actually thinking of good natured, how you say, Humor[*].

> Sure. Every singleton I see in the HOV lane really has a dog and two kids stuffed in the trunk. I just can't see them.

Never said that either. I said you can't fit that stuff into a little Fiat 500, it is not the same vehicle category. This isn't an opinion. It literally isn't.

> But you're crazy if you say it's cheaper than a $4k used ICE vehicle,

Never said that either!

> It's also crazy to say a $75k+ luxury car has a lower TCO than a $40k 2023 Camry.

Nor that.

Is this a reading comprehension issue or just a relentless insistence on throwing shade?

Once again: If you actually want to compare used ICE vehicles like a Camry to a Tesla, you'd compare to a comparable used Tesla model not a brand new $75,000+ one. Used Toyotas are extremely reliable and affordable, it is a great option! May very well be the best option depending on what is available in your location at a given moment.

A new model 3 can now be had for ~$39,900 vs a new Camry for ~$29,900. (https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview)

Most people don't buy new, you might not want/need to, that is a separate discussion. Depending how much you drive, as fuel is expensive, eventually you'll break even - maybe around 10 years / 100k miles, you can look it up and do the calculation yourself.

It may or may not be the right option for somebody but surely has nothing to do with the completely different category of $75,000+ cars.

* Worldly socialists are often unfamiliar with the concept. Ymmv.

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