We Need to Let Go of the Bell Curve

> Why is the Pareto distribution the actual norm, instead of the “normal” Gaussian distribution? Perhaps even more importantly, why is it becoming even more so? Most things follow power laws because this is how interconnected complex systems behave. And power laws are becoming ever more ubiquitous because our world operates in increasingly interconnected complex systems. The more interconnected the complex systems, the more pronounced the power law.

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> The realization that we live in a largely Pareto world — inherently unfair, asymmetric, and unpredictable — may feel unpleasant at first. The upside, however, is that systemic change in such a world is much easier and faster. In a Gaussian world, all elements within a system must shift for the entire construction to change, which is laborious, time consuming, and often impossible. In a Pareto world, on the other hand, a change in the tail shifts the entire system — for better or worse.

Becomes weaker as it treats Pareto distributions/ power laws as a metaphor and never explains when one or the other is more appropriate.

Adds confusion when we are supposed to “make bold decisions in the tail” while the examples are to focus on “head of distribution” problems.

Lost me when they characterised their decision as health insurer to offer gym access and other health programs as one of those “bold tail decisions” when this is aimed at all policy holders, not only the 20% who drive 80% of the cost.