Housing should be affordable except for when I sell my house for $1M
mcsweeneys.net
mcsweeneys.net
The illusion of house price appreciation is due to historical population growth creating scarcity, and cheaper money allowing for higher and higher leverage. At some point the music has to stop.
At some point the banks should step in and say hey, there is no way this property is worth $300k, $600k, $900k - it will never sell at that price again, none of the local industries pay well enough to have a $7k per month mortgage payment, if the loan defaults we are going to take a bath. However the banks don’t do that, they just say California idiot has money to blow, give him the loan.
And of course the California idiot is going to have problems also when he wants to move in 2-7 years and finds out nobody can afford his house.
though I agree with larger point that its not productive growth. In fact I have been saying in past that land prices are the perfectly useless sink for the worthless money created by central bankers out of thin air.
edit: Seems to be a controversial opinion given the votes. But what‘s controversial about a pork cycle? Housing markets create a pork cycle.
I agree its just larger buyer pool chasing slowly increasing supply. but you have to understand the population growth is only needed locally so so long as a metro remains financially viable growth will continue & hence housing prices. Also thanks to some spectacularly BS regulations/nimbyism we cannot build fast enough so that creates extra pressure in coastal centers.
This is likely on me for misunderstanding your comments, but if housing costs increase in line with inflation then everything else will get expensive too. The relative cost of other goods will be constant, and we would never reach a place where a single house could be so relatively valuable.
Unfortunately, house prices have been outpacing inflation. This can't continue forever. It's being propped up by laws and policies and special tax exemptions, but eventually the majority of voters will live in rental accommodation, and they'll vote for policies to bring house prices back in line with inflation.
For most developed countries with declining birth rates, the opposite will happen, older generations will be more than ever represented politically and they will vote to favour home ownership bcs they inherited valuable assets from previous generations and/or had the possibility after decades of renting to get on the property ladder.
Voting demographics and policy makers will be dead by then.
So yes as long a location is desirable (think Manhattan or Shanghai) , sky is the limit in terms of prices.
Skyscrapers can help a bit by making this 2d problem to 3d but still there are limits.
NYC is an archipelago separated by large bodies of water, and it is hard to avoid going through Manhattan to go between the western suburbs, the northern suburbs/Bronx, and the eastern suburbs/Brooklyn/Queens. What few links exist are always horribly congested.
Geology is the reason there aren’t skyscrapers in the west village etc though.
The West Village is actually not very well connected transport wise, and historically the waterfronts were docks-oriented. Downtown is the historic core where pre-bridges, all the ferries went, and where many bridges still exist. Midtown is the location of the rail terminals, so a suburbanite can walk to their job without having to pay a second fare. (IIRC Grand Central is where it is because at some point the city banned surface-level steam trains below.)
Downtown is where all the ferry landings were, and where a lot of the bridges were built after.
Midtown is where the rail terminals stop, so suburbanites can quickly walk to their jobs instead of paying a second fare for subway/bus/taxi.
There is no correlation between bedrock depth and height in Manhattan, as explained in the article of the grandparent comment. In fact, most of Downtown is landfill.
I think your causality is backwards. Why has downtown and midtown always been the two main population centers, and not one continuous city? Because that’s where the exposed bedrock is, with some swampy midlands in between in the West Village. Geology.
Nearly 50% of all new housing built in Vancouver is bought up by investors. To purchase a place in Vancouver you 10x the local median salary.
> These 12 cities alone say they will need a total of more than 250,000 new homes built over the next five or 10 years to meet demand from current residents who are inadequately housed and future residents who will move to Metro Vancouver.
https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/many-new-homes...
Unfortunately there tends to be a lot of interventions which make building adequate housing difficult. But remote work has allowed more developer friendly places like Texas and Florida to attract net migration.
Austin is number one (or close to) for new housing permits and every few months I see the city council changing ordinances to make it even easier. Imagine San Francisco did this 20 years ago instead of stifling every effort to build something?
Blaming developers is one of the reasons housing is expensive. Yes, they make money, but they do it because they’re providing a good that’s in demand. Thats how a market based economy works. When things are in short supply, price goes up which incents new supply/competition.
Houses don't appreciate, they just (often) depreciate less in absolute terms than the land they sit on appreciates.
Talking about housing prices without talking about demand being a non-static thing is only talking about half the story. And development, by its very nature, is intended to increase demand and make land even more valuable, so it can easily have unanticipated results.
We moved demand around in the past, such as with the federal government and defense contractors spreading out a bunch of work in the Cold War to smaller developing cities. It could happen again.
If everyone refused to buy with a HOA, then they would vanish in new builds, and could even be uniformly voted to disband in old builds.
But apparently some like HOAs (don't ask me why).
If your neighborhood hires landscapers, or has a pool, or you share literally any part of the building structure, then an HOA comes into play. Often new developments have private roads that need maintenance, snow clearing, etc.
This is because small local governments are often too cash poor to foot the additional road maintenance, utilities, etc so they want to offload the cost to the developers/ the developers customers.
I don’t understand how this could be true.
I’m in Auckland, New Zealand and don’t have a housing association.
I pay about US$1500 per year in property tax. It covers rubbish collection, library access, street cleaning, park maintenance, subsidised public transport (which is an abysmal service) etc.
https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/property-rates-valuation...
The size of the house isn’t as important as the value. If you’re laying $14k/year in property taxes, your house is likely appraised for $1-1.5M.
Nationally speaking, Decatur has pretty low property taxes. Especially since you’re probably a short distance from the Brick Store Pub.
The HOA does have significant common areas including a pool and park that has been there since the beginning. It also has hilly open spaces that require annual weed and brush clearing for fire breaks. These areas also have landslide potential with drainage and retaining wall engineering issues, which adds to both contractor costs and also increases insurance premiums for the HOA.
My parents bought their house new for under $45k in 1975 and are currently assessed at under $170k based on the Prop 13 logic. It's hard to say what the market value is since recently sold homes in the area have had significant remodeling compared to my parents' time-capsule, but I imagine they could get nearly $1M. They probably represent the lower limit of assessments in their neighborhood. Most neighboring houses have been resold and reset to market rates at least once in the past 50 years, or at least done some major renovations which also partially increase the assessment for tax purposes.
There are people who own condos in my region who pay $900/month in HOA fees on top of $900/month in property taxes.
As you say, that’s a massive difference.
And if it’s getting tricky, you can usually find a politician who is sympathetic and will bend the rules for you.
Thiel managed 12 days here before citizenship came though, but if you aren’t as rich as him I’m sure we could come to an arrangement.
If working here, you’ll be alarmed by the low wages, high housing costs (for low quality housing) and high cost of living. However bad you think it is, it’s worse.
But other stuff is great!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/national/how-peter-thiel-...
The typical argument on this site here is: Europe doesn't have a thriving tech center because of high taxes. The HOAs and stuff like that is a consequence of the different tax burden. So I guess your total taxability is lower than ours shrug
It all comes down to luck of the draw.
Someone who wants a place quieter than the noise level the city enforces can find a development with an HOA that sets a lower level. Someone who is particularly sensitive to smoke can find a development that bans outdoor fires on more days than the city does.
As long as an HOA is only limiting things that actually affect other people and maintaining common property, and it is legally structured in a way that prevents scope creep (or ensures that existing owners are grandfathered if new restrictions are imposed), I don't see anything inherently wrong with having an HOA.
Sometimes I even break the rules and put my garbage bins out too early and leave them out too late and I’ve never heard a word about it.
There was even a foreclosed house in the neighborhood that was increasingly unmaintained, and the HOA hounded the bank and got them to take better care of the property until it was finally sold.
Overall, our HOA is a net positive.
I also was part of an HOA for 4-unit condo building I lived in previously. It was perfectly fine and its purpose and necessity was very apparent.
I’m sure there are nightmare HOAs out there, just like there are nightmare neighbors in places with no HOA.
We are witnessing this right now, having not moved from our townhome. First decade was great, everyone follow the rules, HOA cared about the look of our properties and kept everyone in check. Then HOA stopped sending letters about the dirty facades. Then the neighbors one by one all decided its okay to leave their garbage cans out even though the bylaws specifically forbid this. Then they cut back on services they offer (illegal parking is only enforced during HOA business hours, no more landscape maintenance), they stopped enforcement (neighbor has 4 pets, facades haven't been cleaned in 5-6 years, trash and toys are being left in the shared driveway). The final slap in the face, we got an email last month saying they are raising the HOA fee by 25%.
Unlike socialism, I can politic my way into the board and demand change. Which looks like something I'm going to have to do to get back the HOA (and property) that I loved
> Unlike socialism, I can politic my way into the board and demand change.
That sounds like the definition of socialism. What do you mean?
They might hire out property management duties to an outside firm
I have no idea what an HOA has to do at all with socialism, apart from the fact both involve groups of people.
Aside from that, an HOA functions as well as it is run. It sounds like the folks running yours aren't all the invested in it or don't have the same priorities as you. The solution is, as you stated, being the one to try and make the change by joining the HOA leadership.
In my case, I don't have that issue, and the HOA is a few years past 30 running now. I suppose I'm lucky that there's enough homeowners in the neighborhood who are both will and able to run things to an acceptable standard.
When I bought my first house, I was adamant that I didn’t want an HOA. Over the next ten years the neighborhood went to crap. I ended up living next to neighbors who didn’t maintain their yards, parked junker cars on their lawn and let their houses go to trash.
When I moved, I specifically wanted an HOA. After five years, I still love my HOA. Mostly for two reasons. First, other neighbors here generally have the same mind set and care about their most expensive possession. Second when someone starts letting things slide the HOA slaps ‘‘em on the wrist.
I live in north Seattle area where non-HOA homes are priced higher than HOA homes. The area has a couple of older somewhat rundown houses and no one cares. Prices are still at least $100k higher than the new builds with HOAs on the next block. So there goes the old excuse for maintaining home value.
I want to live in a neighborhood with others who feel the same way.
To your second point, yes, not all HOAs are great. If you frequent fark.com, you'll find multiple threads per month about some terrible thing an HOA is doing. But, that's why you do your due diligence when selecting an HOA. You carefully read the CC&Rs before signing on the house, you talk to others in the neighborhood before moving in. Much like selecting an insurance plan. For example, my HOA is setup so that leadership fully rotates every 3 years, with the rotations staggered. Worst case we get bad leadership for 1 year. Though, so far, in the in the 15 years the HOA has existed, they've done nothing but enforce rules everyone has agreed to. (Well that, and they killed off a bunch of common-area grass by hiring the cheapest lawn care they could find. )
> they've done nothing but enforce rules everyone has agreed to
But that's not really true is it? Most people buying a house in America do not have access to HOA by-laws until after signing. It's increasingly hard to even find homes that don't belong to a HOA unless you have the financial means to buy wherever you like. Plus, HOAs aren't opt-in/out either.
It doesn't matter if a majority of you decide on rules, unless the same majority is willing to fork out money to pay my mortgage+taxes, Idgaf what you have to say.
> I want to live in a neighborhood with others who feel the same way.
If you really believe this, you can go ahead and disband the HOA. You don't need to enforce with a stick if this is really the case.
This is not true
But you generally have to ask for them when you make the offer, or the law doesn’t protect you.
Redfin, Zillow disclose HOA fees. Nothing prevents the buyer or their agent from requesting docs or calling the HOA directly
But the main thing, is that you have to ask for the docs at the very start, or those laws don’t really protect you.
I know John Oliver mentioned in his HOA segment that this is sometimes the case, but it's definitely not "most" locations and I actually don't know where it is true (wish he had clarified).
It's definitely not true in Massachusetts, New Hampshire or California because I'm familiar with the real estate laws of those states.
But they also aren’t allowed to monitor grass height and whatnot.
But that’s the big thing with all construction. It’s super, super regulated. It’s probably the most heavily regulated thing there is… what gets built is the small subset of things that can both work financially and get approved. If you got on the right merry go round early enough, it’s great. It’s probably the biggest thing creating inequality.
The irony is that long term, many HOAs hurt property values. But supposedly they exist to enhance property values.
https://equitablegrowth.org/land-rather-than-capital-the-lon...
You can kind of see a similar shift today in how teens/young adults are losing interest in driving — something their great-grandparents would have thought crazy. “But a car is what makes you free!”
The reason many see these as unstable today is because of the default-ness of single family housing as the default goal. Similarly how driving a car was the default goal for 16 year olds for several generations.
It’s hard to imagine not wanting to purchase a home because we’ve been sold it as the smart and obvious thing to do for quite awhile now.
I've seen rents go up with inflation where inflation grows at 25% yoy, and I've seen people kicked out of an apartment 3 months after moving in because the owner found a buyer with a good deal.
But I agree with you, single family housing is the goal for some cultures and generations, and it was carefully crafted by governmental policy, propaganda, marketing and third party interests. We are now seeing the consequences of such.
Yet, not all people have that goal, but a lot are content to just owning a place to live even with relatives, a community or others.
I feel it's hard to not wanting to own something if it grants more rights and protections against injustices. In the countries I've lived, having a property deed of any sorts with your name on it makes your life so much better and stress free.
A lot of this comes down to what an individual values and my argument is that what individuals value when it comes to housing will change drastically over the coming 50 or so years.
I read an article recently (can't find it immediately) proposing a social housing mechanism where you pay into it via rent and gain equity not in the specific housing unit itself, but rather in the social housing program as a whole. Kind of like a REIT, only at a certain point you get an entitlement to a housing unit and no longer have to pay rent, as if you'd paid off a mortgage.
Here in most of Europe its luxury with 2 faces - it costs significantly more of your money, time and energy to own it. Is it worth spending the little free time you have in your life with just plain stupid property maintenance? For me its a skill I happily delegate to (much) less earning fellows, and I spend that time with family, doing sports and adventures or just relaxing.
Ie in Switzerland, due to way property taxes are setup, its very ineffective to fully own your house. To inherit is sort of curse or at least a burden, you usually immediately have to sell. Nobody apart from few whiny expacts complaints about it, people have actual lives to take care of and focus on much more important matters.
Rates in European countries [1].
Rates in the US [2].
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-ra...
From my perspective as a mid-30s millennial, much of what's fueling desire to own a home right now is the ability to turn housing costs into a semi-fixed and mostly predictable expense, even if mortgages aren't all that much cheaper than renting in the short term. That assurance is worth quite a lot.
1. Overestimating the predictability of the costs of owning a home. As a renter, I know exactly what I will pay for the next year. A homeowner doesn’t have that same knowledge.
2. Comparing rent to mortgage for equivalent properties. Yes, renting the same property will generally compare unfavorably to purchasing it. But compare a 2-bedroom apartment to a 4-bedroom home and the apartment becomes much more competitive financially. However then it comes down to personal preference for the place you want to live, not a rational cost analysis.
3. Underestimating the stress of owning a home and overestimating the stress of renting - but this is also mostly a personal and perspective thing.
Having previously been renting in the SF Bay Area, ownership worked out much better in my case. With the rate that rent had been increasing there it'd take several bad unexpected house repairs each year to equal the increases.
Factoring in planned improvements might make money spent over time more of a wash, but the big difference there is that I can save and plan for improvements… point in case I have planned major bathroom renovations that I've been sticking money into a high yield savings account for. If push comes to shove, don't actually need to do the renovations though, and that money can go towards other more important things helping mitigate or prevent financial disaster. On most peoples' salaries that's difficult to do when renting unless you're renting something so small that it's difficult to use as anything but a place to sleep.
This is kind of getting at my point and prediction. Cars were once seen as Freedom Machines that people were dying to operate when they turned 16.
I believe in future generations will see housing as more than a place to sleep but won’t continue to drool over a 3 or 4 bedroom single family home. People are having fewer kids and the climate is going to make maintaining a yard a bigger hassle and cost in many areas.
Sorry I break the bad news - As a homeowner, this is not an advantage of owning a home. Houses are MASSIVE money sinks. The cost of rent is MUCH more predictable.
Even when a big unexpected house expense inevitably happens I will have had the benefit of having been able to invest the cash that would've otherwise have been spent in the meantime somewhere where it's making some interest instead of going into the black hole of rent with no returns at all.
I went one year where I spent at least $16,000 on repairs.
But that's the point - having $16,000 in repairs unexpectedly is the opposite of "semi-fixed and mostly predictable."
In the 10 years I rented I always rented from small landlords. I had three apartments during that 10 years. Because of that I've never had my rent increase without moving.
As far as black holes go - I spend more than $600/month in just property taxes and insurance. Add to that $360/month currently in interest.
I do own an individual house in Tokyo and don't have, need or want a car, so it is definitely possible when the society wants it and politics allows it.
We need to decentralize.
There's also many things that don't work out economically for towns below a certain size. This is why little towns of 1k-10k tend to have only megacorp chain shops and restaurants — despite the cost of operations being so much cheaper than they are in more urban areas, things like little family owned bakeries, delis, etc are mostly found in cities in the US.
The latter of those paragraphs could perhaps be changed, but it'd take an earth-shattering level of infrastructural redevelopment that I don't see happening any time soon.
Hard disagree here. Decentralization might reduce housing costs, but makes many other things more expensive. More roads to pave and maintain. Higher delivery costs. More time in the car to get to work, shopping, entertainment.
What we need is more/smarter infill development. And the elimination of R1 zoning (single-family only). Let the market decide what housing density should exist on a given block (within reason).
I think when people talk about decentralization they usually mean people moving from the big cities to existing less big cities. Those less big cities are usually built on the road and/or rail networks that are used to supply the big cities.
Decentralizing to such exiting smaller cities wouldn't necessarily be costly, especially if not done too fast.
Our cities are built unlike any other city in the world. We live in vast swaths of suburban sprawl that is so decentralized you get cities like LA where it takes over an hour to get anywhere within the city.
The problem is opposite. We aren't dense enough. No plot of land should be single family.
Sb-9 and adus are designed to help relieve this problem, but ultimately residential areas should all be apartment units 10 stories high when there's a population mismatch with housing and people. Singapore, Shenzhen, Tokyo, Shanghai and any other city evolves their urban infrastructure with a change in population. The western US chooses not to do shit.
LA traffic is way way better than Beijing traffic. They aren't even comparable, really.
Having lived in LA before (Westwood actually), I know that is false. While Shanghai is pretty dense, Beijing is much less so, although the notion of a city in China includes rural areas as well. Both are denser than LA, but I’m not sure Americans are ready to live in 30 story concrete boxes.
Yes, China has lots of people, but the infrastructure to support their density still isn’t that great. It has improved, driving still sucks but subway is a real option now vs in 2007.
If you lived in westwood that means you likely went to UCLA and the neighborhood there is uniquely apartments because its for students. The majority of LA with the exception of downtown, ktown, westwood and some other neighborhoods is mostly suburban sprawl with apartments sprinkled in little pockets everywhere.
Did you have a car? you can't really completely understand the city of LA without owning a car and exploring everything. If you lived in westwood without a car as many students do then you don't really have a good perspective of the entire city.
Heck go a little south of wilshire and you'll see the apartments turn into little plots of single family houses. Go north past sunset and it's single family mansions. The westwood area is just this microcosm of transient students.
Most of california is like this because it developed after car culture. If you go to the east coast which began developing before the automobile you will see that the cities there are much more dense and much better suited for public transportation.
We looked at lots of places around LA before renting in Westwood, lots of apartments. The apartment came with a parking spot, we owned a car.
Now, ya, there were lots of SFHs, just that not everyone or even nearly everyone was living in an SFH.
Not "everyone" lives in a parcel of suburban land. Of course not, home ownership even in suburbia (LA or not) is not affordable by everyone. So LA like every other suburbia out there in existence has many pockets of areas zoned as multi family apartments.
When I say "everyone" I mean the general way of life for someone who's not transient/starting out and living in popular areas. Obviously there aren't suburbs with zero apartments. LA is still overall suburban cul de sacs. You stay there long enough you will be able to afford a home, just not in Westwood.
Westwood is one of the most expensive areas in LA. There are plenty of areas that are cheaper and much much more affordable. You likely only looked for things west of UCLA due to proximity to your job or desirability of the neighborhoods. That area is extremely expensive and just a small (although popular) part of LA. Go south and go east (skipping past Beverley hills) and you'll see places where things get cheaper and youll get a better view a larger section of LA.
I come from a large area east of DT LA which encompasses even larger swaths of suburban sfh that rivals the size of the neighborhoods close to the coast. Starting out people live in apartments. Over time they graduate into buying a sfh and paying a mortgage. Owning and living in a sfh is the typical life path of someone living in LA or suburbia.
China has a huge population. So it's more reasonable for them to emit more gas given population size.
If we want to be pedantic, the tiny middle eastern oil rich cities are the biggest emitters per capita but their impact is small given the small population. Australia also beats the US but they are also much smaller then the US.
In terms of any reasonable impact measurement the world stands to gain the most if the US cuts down usage. Hence why I chose the US as the number one emitter. We stand to benefit if China cuts down too but they are at roughly half our emissions per capita meaning such cuts will be viciously closer to the bone if you know what I mean.
I understand the spiritual idea of trying to measure per capita, but I think for something as severe as climate change, the only relevant metric is the absolute one.
Following your line of logic, Antarctica emits the least greenhouse gases of any country or continent. Per Capita doesn't matter so whatever Antarctica does, they're doing it right.. nothing to do with the fact that the country is practically empty.
It's not spiritual at all. The realistic measure is per Capita. If you aren't measuring it this way... and I say this to be factual and with no intention to offend .. but if a person isn't measuring it this way when they have awareness of the per Capita factor then that person is concretely (not spiritually) stupid.
You are not definitely not stupid. For something as severe as climate change the per Capita measurement matters absolutely.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katherinehamilton/2023/04/21/ge...
So i think the trendline in terms of homeownership rates seems to be gently decreasing for all age groups, but there's a big spike during the 2 housing bubbles we've seen when rates were at historic lows.
As the saying goes- they aren't making any more land. Land (in an area with a growing population) is a finite resource, like gold or precious metals. Nothing about it is an illusion, if you re-zone for dense housing, it will actually further accelerate the increase in price for a single family home since the land underneath is now has more utility.
It is naturally a race to the bottom. As long as a community is getting wealthier, the competition will be more fierce.
You can develop more land as fast as possible. Unless you're lowering the ranking of the whole area, then again as the community develops competition will become more fierce.
How much does a home cost? $(however much the second buyer can maximally afford) + $1.
Which, as a corollary, also means that with double income now being the norm, prices are basically doubled on their own. This also means everyone who doesn't participate in comphet can get fucked.
Employment is never a choice. You either can't work, or you must work. Choosing not to work means getting priced out by everyone who does work for all ranked goods.
If you could put a value on a stay-at-home spouse's labor, you can work out whether this was a positive or negative to the family's economy. You see that at the low income end, a double income society forces the family to have a lot less just to compete for rent. Educated professional couples earn more, while outsourcing house labor to the low income families. Capitalists are very happy because they doubled the supply of their labor.
Essentially you see a person go from full time cooking for their family and raising their kids, to working at a fastfood restaurant and babysitting other people's kids for minimum wage, while their own family gets no support.
Land in the middle of a desert in Arizona may be ridiculously cheap, but few people ever choose to live there (or can actually pull that off). OTOH land on Manhattan, or on the Miami beachfront, is for some reason quite limited.
The appraisal for my land value is pretty fixed, but the value for improvements changes wildly.
There’s a lot more to price of a house than land or the house itself. A good schooling district, lower crime, access to good commercial businesses, and a bunch of other things dictate the value of a house.
Isn't this the illusion our economic system gives us though, for everything from goods to companies in general? There is no "top" of the value of a company, so seemingly everyone is OK believing companies can grow forever and always get bigger/more profitable, so shareholders gets more profit.
If this is to believed, why cannot you believe the same for the housing market? Seems to fit with how most people understand the underlying economic model anyways.
Isn’t this the entire point of the article?
That everybody knows this is unsustainable. They just care about sustaining it until they benefit. Then after that who gives a shit.
Is that really down to a single factor? Would it be impossible to improve the situation by creating more developed land and/or rezoning the land we already have to allow higher density in more desirable locations?
If it's all just population growth, then all you've done is shifted to a new "unsustainable" metric with all the attendant problems you've just flagged.
If was just population growth and cheap money, you might expect housing prices would rise everywhere, but prices have dropped in places like Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland. The housing price bubble is in large part because there is a been a highly uneven distribution of high value job creation. Also, a side effect of the influx of high paying jobs is that local amenities spring up (restaurants, grocery stores, coffee, breweries - typical gentrification), and that reinforces the demand and pushes prices even higher.
Drive across the country and it is clear land scarcity is not a problem, it is just that too many people want or need to live in the same small areas.
Remember: location, location, location.
The music did stop in the 90s, we just forgot what a low point in the cycle looks like.
the concentration is two-fold: of capital toward assets as the monetary mass keeps growing outpacing human labour/capital, and geographical as location near economic activity continues to matter a lot for most people
i don't think there are any instances of these trends reversing without the money simply moving elsewhere
This reminds me of the article someone posted on HN that, from ancient Roman times till today, a nice house has always cost roughly 10,000 grams of gold. It wasn't quite true and is an over-generalization, but it was an interesting point.
I see this recent housing boom mostly through the lens of monetary expansion, since the US population has not actually skyrocketed over the last 2 years.
supply crunches create volatile markets in the short term
I point out: "150 attendees is just 0.03% of the municipality, and in fact really only a small multiple of the number of people who will end up living in this new development".
They respond, "Why would you expect anybody who doesn't live directly adjacent to this planned development to attend? It's not going to be built in their back yard, so they won't care."
If you think it's hypocritical simply to care more about what gets built near you than what gets built far from you with no other qualifiers, that's not realistic (or even reasonable, really).
I.e. you are implying "ugh, these people are NIMBYs and won't admit it", followed in later posts by implying, "there's nothing inherently bad about being NIMBY", which is tonally confusing.
The "rich vein" in this case is the clarification. What you're talking about in your original post is important and interesting. I oppose NIMBYism broadly speaking. I am not disagreeing with you on some semantics irrelevant to the main point of your post - I am commenting on the validity of one of its central points. Humanity tends to be one of the first things we throw out when we find ourselves on two "sides" of some societal disagreement (especially when our "opponents" are not very articulate, which pretty much everybody at a community meeting is not), and that's the relevant part I'm commenting on.
For instance, ones reasons for opposing a landfill being built nearby are morally very different from opposing high density housing.
My point with the landfill is reductio ad absurdum. There is definitely something that you would oppose if proposed to be built near your home. I guess you are saying at that point you would be a nimby too? And I'm saying that's not a debate that gets us anywhere in terms of where to build things we need built, it just leads to further polarization.
Also, I would suggest closely analyzing your thoughts and feelings when you run into a situation where you are broadly considering some category of people "morons or evil". Such categories obviously exist, but when you see them in the real world, the picture is often more complex than you might be willing to admit at first.
Not a fan of the adversarial nature of these zoning mechanics, but when in Rome.
https://www.npr.org/2014/11/17/364760847/whats-with-all-of-t...
Like many (most?) municipalities, our zoning codes were largely set in the mid-20th century, and were deliberately designed to prevent Black families from moving in by restricting multi-family development --- this was a direct response to the 1917 Buchanan decision that outlawed explicit racial zoning (prior to that decision, and to the Great Migration, SFZ was almost unheard of).
What that means today is that any new apartment building will be built under a variance negotiated with the municipality; effectively, every new apartment building is done at the individualized discretion of the board.
So you have a couple problems here:
* There's a process by which these projects are introduced and endorsed to the board which doesn't include opportunities to put give-to-get proposals on the table.
* It's probably not a good idea to play games with the board in the first place, since they have other things to do and there aren't really many stakeholders that will hold them to account if they accede to local NIMBYs and just kill a development.
* It puts them in a weird position if their negotiating-position-bid is accepted.
What it shouldn't be is a speculative investment for companies, non residents or wealthy individuals.
Which means it could still be relatively affordable for people who live in the area (minus income inequality issues) while also being a good investment compared to national average.
In good functioning economy, building a same house with same features and such should get cheaper as efficiency gets better. Materials should be at least cheaper.
Ofc, we want bigger and more efficient housing with more features so that counteracts it, but how much should it counteract?
In nominal terms it's inevitable. In real terms, this should not be the case.
Housing is a commodity. It's the only commodity which has increased in price in real terms over time. This is because we've turned it into a retirement account.
Because there is competition a certain premium is paid. And if we assume further economical growth, the premium that an individual is capable of paying likewise should increase. Therefore, all things being equal, the prices should increase.
Source: career hedge fund commodities trader.
also, in Japan housing is a depreciating asset and while their economy has well known challenges over the last few decades, they're still an advanced economy that the majority of nations on Earth would probably be happy to trade places with. an outlier for sure, but worth mentioning
says nearly every generation of ideal-minded and dissatisfied young people fwiw
Boomers were once a very liberal generation.
Probably not. I'm 59, it's been talked about my entire life, in two countries. Governments are unwilling to fundamentally reorganize the basics of property ownership and building to help their citizens lead better (or even reasonable) lives, but they will go the extra mile or three to make sure that a mass of young and angry protestors do not get what they want.
That's just categorically false. There are quite a few countries that do this very thing, like Austria.
But if that's true, then Vienna is just one of the handful of the exceptions that prove the rule.
The fact that there's a city in Austria that behaves differently to most governments in most parts of the world does not invalidate the point I was making.
In general, there's a housing shortage, but there are many places with a surplus. They are marked in purple/blue on the map in this article.
Hong Kong just did it. They weren't successful.
Brazil a decade ago was also driven by cost of living and they won.
US? I don't know. Occupy Wall Street was eradicated with terrifying efficiency. I'm not that optimistic about social movements here.
I dropped by Occupy a few times. They did themselves in by failing to specify demands. All form and no substance.
The media did a pretty good job of depicting people being dragged away by riot police screaming as hippies getting bored and leaving.
This isn’t an ask. It’s a general grievance.
> media did a pretty good job of depicting people being dragged away by riot police screaming as hippies getting bored and leaving
I was there. Never saw screaming people dragged around. Did see tear gas, which isn’t nice. Not saying it didn’t happen, but it wasn’t common. Mostly, people were yelling at each other about stuff being stolen from their tents.
It's pretty obviously both.
>I was there. Never saw screaming people dragged around. Did see tear gas, which isn’t nice
Thats the system using violence to defend itself. Just like in Russia.
It’s not. “Redistribute wealth” isn’t a policy. It’s better than money in politics, though, because we don’t even have consensus on what that means.
This is what policy looks like, even in general terms:
1) More-progressive taxation 2) Universal healthcare 3) Closing New York’s LLC loophole (done)
Et cetera. Unfortunately, delineating these policies, agreeing to them internally and then messaging on them externally is a lot more work than spouting general grievances.
> the system using violence to defend itself. Just like in Russia.
It’s the system clearing a public park. Nobody cared what people were asking for at that point, the place smelled of piss.
You lost credibility with the false comparison with Russia, but I think you know that.
Those are so vague as to be meaningless, and so sweeping as to be quixotic. Protests always fail when there is not a clear and attainable path to success. This is something successful movements understand, and unsuccessful ones don't.
They want that number to be pushed down.
Are you under the impression that this is a complicated demand?
No, it isn’t. Let’s start with scoping. Everyone in America is immeasurably better off than the median in some countries. Clearly not what anyone in Zuccotti Park meant.
> Are you under the impression that this is a complicated demand?
Are you under the impression it’s not? It would push down inequality to remove student loan and public transport subsidies in cities and cut cheques to the poorest rural Americans. That’s obviously not what was wanted by those protesters.
1. This is not a logical argument - it is a red herring combined with whataboutism (forget American gini! whatabout global gini?!).
2. If you take into account that they have to pay rent in America, go to college in America and pay for medical care in America the median American may live in the richest country in the world but that doesn't make them the richest median citizens. Not even close.
>Are you under the impression it’s not?
Of course. I'm not the one playing dumb for political effect here.
>It would push down inequality ... to cut cheques to the poorest rural Americans. That’s obviously not what was wanted by those protesters.
No, it is. And the US establishment violently crushed the protest precisely because this is the furthest thing from their preferred outcome.
I'm guessing you approved?
It’s also hard to protest if you are scraping by, and a long commitment to protesting means you lose your job
Capitalism sadly wins far too often for me to think this is achievable
18 to 24-year olds still punch in around two-thirds weight at the voting booth [1]. Protesting is useless without the ballot-box threat; absent it, the politically savvy move is to crack down and preserve voters’ benefits.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096299/voter-turnout-pr...
Sounds like a political issue to me.
65% of Americans own a home. Making housing more affordable means taking an axe to their net worth. That's why it won't happen.
You control this through property tax.
Yes, the USA was founded by english nobility for english nobility. Is it really so surprising they upheld one of the most important institutions for ensuring that rich people can get paid for being rich? They also upheld slavery for similar reasons, though thankfully we sorted that one out 150 years ago.
Private ownership of land is actually in the governments best interest. Private individuals will improve land creating further tax. And buildings and people are the 2 things of value a government has. With private ownership the people are truly invested in the government and the government with the people.
The exponential decay of net-present-value calculations means that time horizons do not have to be infinite to encourage investment. Making them infinite doesn't even help very much at all. When you compare this against the dramatically higher capital requirements of the perpetual ownership model, it actually has very little to offer. Except ensuring that rich people can get paid for being rich, of course, which one starts to suspect is the actual purpose.
I want leases, but I'd settle for LVT.
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Ja...
Maybe land in popular places is always a good investment, or maybe that sentiment is already factored into the price when you buy in, and subsequent returns are mainly driven by macro factors like interest rate adjustments and banking crises?
I can tell you this: if I added up all home improvements, maintenance, and property taxes I’ve paid over 20 years then I’d take a significant loss when selling at current inflated values. Maybe when you look at the total cost of ownership for typical family owned homes then in many cases it’s not actually investment, maybe more like a savings account. That’s the best I’d get out of my home and I bought cheap w/ prices, inflated as they are, roughly 150% higher than my sticker price 20 years ago. The financial model for developers is of course different but if you’re going to look at home ownership as an investment for the owner then you can’t do that going from the buying price to selling price, you have add in all the costs of ownership. (Disclaimer: my TCO loss on my home despite rising prices would be do in large part because of truly massive property taxes.)
I don’t see an easy way to outlaw the abilities for housing to be an investment. Even the it wouldn’t do anything at all to actually get people into housing, it would just make it more affordable for the lucky few who got to buy in at the reduced price.
We just need to build more housing and have laws/regulations/rules in place that stop the NIMBY nonsense. No reasonable development can be denied if the increase in housing supply is lagging behind local increased population growth. Incentives to developers to build more than that minimum. Tax incentives for developers to keep prices within confines bands of local median incomes, tax penalties— a luxury tax— against selling a certain amount above these limits.
And I don’t know, these may be really bad ideas too. But all I see disallowing investment accomplishing is to have housing inventory stagnate and make housing access partly a game of who you know to get an inside track— similar to how some affordable housing programs work right now. Around me, apartment complexes that are part of affordable housing programs have 2+ year waiting lists, some should be condemned and closed, but I’ve seen people pretty much walk into a recently opened space when they know someone who administers the program for that complex.
- ban anyone non-resident in the country from owning property
- create an exponential property tax. 0% for first home, 2% for second home, 4% for third home, 8% for fourth home etc to discourage mass renting.
- to make the point above easier to enforce, make it illegal for companies to own residential property other than a few exceptions such as developer companies holding newly built property that they’re selling, banks holding repossessions etc. All property must be owned by an individual citizen.
- Mandate that developers build >50% affordable housing. Earmark this housing for first time buyers only. Non compliance means the developer is shut down and loses their license.
- Mandate that developers build on their land or else have it seized by the government to avoid developers land banking and waiting it out for a change of administration which would reverse all the above rules so developers can go back to raking in absurd profits.
This is a trap. It sounds good on paper. In practice, every bureaucratic busybody wants to define affordability to deliver to their constituents. This dramatically raises construction costs. It’s a current cost adjuvant in New York and San Francisco.
A simple first-time homebuyer (or single homeowner) requirement should suffice in segregating the market.
It’s a trap if you let it be a trap. You define affordability using median earnings of the area in question. The properties built are then sold for no more than 3.5x that amount.
Let me introduce you to the myriad of definitions of income and area, and how dare you suggest we include public subsidies or salaries in the calculation, also, why aren’t we creating a special category for [things]. These floating variables immediately corrupt. You can fight political nature, or you can write good policy.
This is why, at the national level, you have someone who sets these definitions using common sense. All of these are completely surmountable problems - the only thing lacking is political will to do it and defeatist attitudes.
You’re going to federalise house pricing? And again, you’re depending on commonsensical bureaucracy. That’s a losing move. Especially when rules-based systems are available.
Put another way: if you empowered such a panel, there would be political opportunity in using its own rules to re-orient its mission.
It is if we take a defeatist attitude. Would you be saying the same thing if you knew it was the founding fathers who were going to be writing the laws or if it was Abraham Lincoln in charge? At some point in time, everyone just decided to get completely defeatist about politics and what is possible to achieve and nothing will change until that attitude is overcome.
As societies, we’ve become weirdly tolerant of deception and corruption - I assume as a result of the financial crisis and lack of punishment for those involved. Personally, I think the only antidote is to start getting really fucking tough on white collar crime - and that means long jail sentences for offenders. We also need to start rooting out all the nonsense we’ve allowed to creep into the system and stop allowing people to exploit technicalities that fly in the spirit of the law for their own personal gain. Maybe this means expanding the laws as written to include stated aims of the written law to allow for easier interpretation by juries in disputed cases. At the minute, we just allow people to exploit loopholes and shrug our shoulders saying “fair enough” when everyone can see plain as day that the spirit of the law is being flouted even if it is technically legal. Im not saying people should be jailed for this kind of behaviour like they should if they’re outright engaging in fraud, but we definitely should not be ruling in their favour.
Also I’m in the UK, not the US. The same problem exists in all English speaking countries.
Laws versus rules. The latter should be simple, because there are too many of them to keep an eye on. In any case, adding Nu element of discretion guarantees a litigation carousel. Another mode through which affordable-housing schemes fail.
> the only antidote is to start getting really fucking tough on white collar crime - and that means long jail sentences for offenders
Totally agree. Violence, fraud and corruption strike me as the three that deserve long, unyielding jail time.
How do you ensure people aren’t using human or corporate straw buyers to take advantage of this?
You can’t. Plenty of countries have no-foreigner and first-time only requirements, and they’re flagrantly violated throughout. There isn’t a demand-side solution to housing I’ve seen. That said, there are better and worse ideas, and the affordable-housing gimmick is among the worst.
Every country with these rules does this. What happens is the political opposition winds up in jail and then people riot and burn things. Also, when the stakes are that high, law enforcement loses fidelity.
That’s what I’m arguing against. It isn’t necessary. There are better ways than classic affordable housing. (Your other suggestions, for example.) It’s a broken policy model that one would sooner inject into a workable framework in an effort to tank it than seriously pursue.
Exponential property taxes, vacancy taxes, zoning limits–these work, and don’t require a discretionary bureaucracy. Price regulation through affordable-housing mandates do not.
Libertarians tried it. Of course that's just a very nice exercise in rediscovering democracy from first principles.
For example, an older couple whose kids have left could downsize, but often can’t afford it due to that generation trying to maximize ROI.
So, the system is broken even for folks who want a different home, and the incentive to fix it may be that flexibility for existing homeowners to get a better fit for themselves.
Help me out with this. Their downsized home will cost less than their large home sells for.
This is orthogonal to housing delivering real returns. (Common cause, granted.)
The house my parents bought in 1975 is worth $4 million (according to Zillow) because it is in a prime Palo Alto location. In their case, assuming the house is actually worth $4M, they will make a tidy profit. They could buy a downsized house, but only if they move out of Palo Alto. And their tax bill would sky-rocket.
A better example might my house, which I have owned for 22 years, valued at a "mere" $1.4M. Taxes at market rate would be $12,320. Assuming I bought it in 1975, my yearly tax bill would be a mere $1,232. The first problem, small houses in the Bay Area are still expensive. But suppose I found something for $700K, my tax bill would go from $1,232 to $6,160. OK, maybe I move somewhere cheap, and get a house for $350K, I'm still probably paying more than 2x my current tax rate.
Add to that the enormous stress involved with buying a house, I'm not planning on selling, ever.
The first $500k is tax-free if married filing jointly. The rest is taxed at a maximum rate of 20%. For nearly $4m in profit, that's pretty good. There'll be cash left after selling. Pay the taxes. They've gotten a really good deal on property tax for decades, and will continue to do so in their new home (keep reading).
> 6% of the sale price is split between the buying and selling realtor
You don't have to accept the standard shit deal in a seller's market like Palo Alto. Negotiate. List directly on MLS. Sell off-market. There are so many possibilities.
> And their tax bill would sky-rocket
Prop 90 allows homeowners over age 55 to keep their original assessed value when selling and moving to a different home of equal or lesser value. [1]
To me it sure sounds like your parents could sell for $4m, buy a high-end condo in Mountain View or Sunnyvale for $1.5m, and have well over $1.5m left after taxes, closing costs, and moving expenses. And continue to enjoy low property taxes on their new place. Maybe I missed something though.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_California_Proposition_90
Imagine what would happen if normal consumer goods, like flatware, or clothes, or, mmm, tulip flowers were considered an investment, which should keep growling in value and kept scarce lest the prices go down.
Look what happened to art market now that "fine art" is considered an investment.
The attitude of homeowners is somehow slightly worse than "fuck you, I've got mine". It's more like "no matter what, I must stay ahead of those lacking the foresight to be born in the 1950's or 60's". [1] https://shelsilverstein.yolasite.com/prayer-of-the-selfish-c...
Houses are not expensive because of NIMBYs, I've seen government throw protesters in a trash bin with no issues when it was convenient for the wealthy, my first protest was the G8 in Genova, Italy, and they had to issue to kill and beat kids, but then when it comes to housing the protesters all of a sudden become a blocker
btw I still support student loan reform at the age of 40+ but not in the hackey one-shot way current politicians are trying to get it done. same with many other things.
That’s the issue. I don’t think homes should appreciate in value (less inflation). It causes massive inequity. Houses are depreciating assets too. Just decaying/breaking over time.
1. New buildings that aren't rent controlled, can rent for $1-3k monthly.
2. Alt buildings that are rent controlled and compete with public housing, renting for $400-$700 monthly.
Old/alt buildings sell for at least half the price of new buildings. Around 60% of Vienna's residents live in public housing. I don't think things that work here would ever work in other parts of the world.
But even in Vienna, if you move there now you'll have to rent off the private market.
Charging someone $3000/month for insulin without which they will die? Preventing the import of the same thing from Canada at a fraction of the cost? That's quite literally state violence.
Housing (shelter) is one of humanity's basic needs. Denying this to people is again, quite literally, state violence. It's not market conditions that made this happen. It's not population growth. It's deliberate policy at every level of government.
Yet one person steals from CVS or breaks into a car and people lose their minds. As a society we will deploy the police state at a moment's notice in the case of property crime. Think about that.
In the US in particular, housing policy is a key tool in economic segregation, which is the replacement to literal segregation that was slowly made technically illegal post-WW2.
What do I mean by this? Redlining is an obvious example. A big one is the GI Bill, that provided cheap mortgages and free education to returning white servicemen. Coinciding with the flight to the suburbs, this created generational wealth. This allows future generations to live in those "nicer" areas and have access to better amenities. This is what I mean by "economic segregation". The "riffraff" are simply priced out.
And since so many amenities like education are funded in large part from property taxes, the wealthier areas get more and more of an advantage.
Some people like to say "I'm fiscally conservative but socially liberal". This betrays a deep misunderstanding of what systemic racism actually is. Many think racism is just using a bad word. It's not. It's the continued disenfranchisement of entires groups of people through economics, government policy and the police state.
Without inheritance, for the average Millennial and Gen-Z, they will currently not be able to afford buying a house.
Also, don't bother trying to argue that buying a house isn't required; the system all previous generations has set up for retirement requires that you own a house. It's just now they cost $1M.
This isn't quite the same thing as inflation. Inflation is the cost of milk and eggs. That also has gone up, in part because the Fed is dumping money into the economy during the pandemic as part of quantitative easing. But the home prices are an effect of cheap money.
Now cheap money is gone, people have to rethink were to put money. Homes that are expensive to leverage and don't go up in value aren't a great place to put money anymore.
If you look at home prices and can’t believe the prices it’s because you’re looking for homes you can’t afford.
https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-homeownership-r...
Source for this?
> A 25-year-old’s median monthly mortgage payment was $1,013 in 2021
The median price for a home owned by 25 year olds is 235k, and 30% of 25 year olds own a home. Doesn’t really seem like that passes the sniff test, unless like 100% of rural 25 year olds purchased homes.
Houses are the same when you factor in interest rates outside of certain regions that have concentrated wealth due to the expanding professional class.
Medical care is more expensive but not for young people that rarely need it.
Education is a real problem. I’d agree we need to figure that out. It’s a scam today. Kids are left with massive debt and brainwashing.
But by and large people are wealthier than they’ve ever been overall. There’s never been a better time to be alive and opportunity is everywhere. The question is will it last?
I don’t even know what that means.
Similarly we are "richer" because we have nice cars, but also you can't do almost anything in the US without a car (outside of a few cities). So the cost of the car is not a luxury, it's a basic requirement to participate in society.
In other words, in 1940 you might have been able to opt out of a car and post high-school education and have a normal life. In 2023, you arguably can't.
In the city you had a good chance of living in a tenement building under cramped conditions with other families. You were desperately afraid your kids would acquire polio or that everyone else would acquire TB.
Regardless, your building was probably rundown and in need of renovation that wasn’t possible since the depression and WW2 made materials impossible to get or afford. Meanwhile the cost to live in the city was still relatively high, hence why so many people cramped together.
People moved to the suburbs in the 50’s to escape this. (Moving to flee blacks is more of a myth.) We has breakthroughs in manufacturing houses (which only wealthy people could really afford prior) in terms of materials and methods and the automobile and road network became viable.
You could stay in a cramped, expensive, outdated, and dirty city or you could get a plot of land and a spacious (for the time, average home sizes are twice as large today) home and a new car. This is what people did because it’s a much better way to raise a family.
You can live in a small place and work a job that doesn’t require an education. Tons of people do today. You’ll still have better conditions than people back then.
> You can live in a small place and work a job that doesn’t require an education
Indeed, you can get by with a little bit of training post high school, but even those jobs are drying up. Notice they are already at the margins of society. Previously high school was a significant achievement. You didn't address the car example.
I can tell this isn't going to go anywhere. Good luck.
This doesn't fit the narrative that gen-zedders are being fed, and so they downvote your statistics and move on, because somehow their internet points change reality.
I get it, it's easier to blame the world than admit life's just hard for everyone, but I cringe when I think this generation is going to be in charge of everything soon. The only thing I trust them to run, is us into the ground.
A house is not an investment and it should not increase in value when discounted by inflation.
Demand for 1m houses was high because people could afford it.
It will take a while for people's expectations to normalize, but if rates remain above 5 for years the market will return to earth.
Land appreciation (not home appreciation: the expensive part of a home is the land or share it sits on) is due to scarcity and underutilization.
Or maybe not. Maybe Big Corp will buy them all and make the younger gens renters.