has he open sourced his model for election predictions?
I would be curious to see if it outperformed a naive averaging of the major polls.
I would be curious to see if it outperformed a naive averaging of the major polls.
They did seem to do better than Pollster which is a naive averaging.
The site compiles polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in baseball sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data"[1] and "weighting each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll."