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The consequential factor isn't whether it's true, but the fact that a lot of people believe it. It's an attitude I hear from most of my peers, in and out of tech. What happens when a lot of the people who keep society running half-ass their jobs because they believe effort won't be rewarded?

It's far far worse than workers lazing off. It paints a picture of a great "hollowing out" of our society as each member pulls away, "The tragedy of the commons" taken to its far conclusion. Trust is a necessary condition for a decent society and we've not given the little people many reasons to trust the system.

Over the long run, effort is quite often rewarded more than lack of effort. Not perfectly. But often enough that it's the way to bet.

Agreed. It may not be a perfect meritocracy, but over the course of a life a little effort and competence go a long way.

Not as far as it used to though.

Economic rents are taking a larger % of western economies every year.