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Comment by adventured | Hacker News Reader

People frequently reference WW3 in regards to Russia.

They can't get through eastern Ukraine. What world war? They have no means (and the mediocre means they had before the beginning of the war in Ukraine, have been slashed in half, to say nothing of vast degradation of still quasi-operating hardware), they'd get stomped by NATO within a month and throw the nuclear card on the table to end it.

Iran? Trivial to contain within their own borders, and we'd ignite an armed revolution by flowing massive amounts of weapons into Iran.

Belarus? Barely has a military worth mentioning in this context.

And there's good reason to be skeptical of China joining Russia in a world war.

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It's the nukes. They can't conquer Ukraine with infantry, but they can annihilate major cities in the US and Europe with nukes.

That's what everybody assumed all along that World War III meant. Russia's antiquated invasion of its neighbor is quaintly parochial compared to that... so long as that's where it stays. But if somebody, somewhere, gets an itchy trigger finger at just the wrong time, everybody everywhere becomes part of WWIII all at once.

That's why people keep referencing Russia and WWIII.

> And there's good reason to be skeptical of China joining Russia in a world war.

You don't seem to have an understanding of basic strategy. China will probably use this opportunity to take back Taiwan. And North Korea might as well invade South Korea while we're at it.

> You don't seem to have an understanding of basic strategy. China will probably use this opportunity to take back Taiwan. And North Korea might as well invade South Korea while we're at it.

Why take back Taiwan when they can take back parts of Russia that Russia previously annexed?

Because Taiwan is a living thorn in the of China. It has democracy and a great economy. It's an alternative version of what it means to be chinese. Can't have that. What will they take from Russia, trees and rocks?

There is no scenario where NK has a reasonable shot of invading SK. There are, arguably, questions as to if NK's total petrolium reserves are enough to move their army to Seoul.

There is the potential for great misery and destruction from NK, but that's mostly due to the fact that a lot of well off urban areas are within NK artillery range.

I'm not so sure about Taiwan, either. Ukraine is right on the border of Russia, no shipping, no mountainous terrain, and no direct treaties with the US. China has already said in the event of a shooting war they'd consider US allies as legitimate targets, so a Taiwanese war means Japan, Australia, SK, and maybe NATO entering the fray. It would be an ugly, mountainous fight, possibly leading to a guerilla war / insurgency.

In 20 years after technology (chips, etc.) transfer back to the US there isn't really any reason for the US to give a shit. Why risk Ukraine-ing yourself when you can just let economic and demographic forces do it for you?

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