Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis: Version 16.0 [pdf]
lazard.com
lazard.com
Important to note that electrical grids and markets are more complicated than "average levelized cost". The uptake of intermittent resources will increase the need for ancillary services, and skew the economics towards generators that are flexible.
For example, you can end up in a situation where half the time the price is zero (even negative) and the other half the price is set by your peaking plants. If you own a wind farm, you're likely to be produce most of your energy in low value periods. This effect worsens as you get more renewables. Hydropower owners dominate in this environment, as they can save their water when the prices are low, and sell at peak capacity when it is high. Norway is making a killing on this, for example.
There are also limits to the proportion of renewables you can have generating at any moment in a synchronous area. At present it is likely around 50-60% for most grids (see DS3 project at Eirgrid, where they're closer to 70%). This is largely due to grid inertia and ancillary services. The remaining 30% is interesting. At present the best option is natural gas, to act as peaking, with some old conventional plants hanging in just to eek out value before decommissioning. In the future this may be hydrogen plants and nuclear. In the far future it may be fusion.
LCOE is an input to deciding whether to build a new power plant in a market. The market’s LBMP is another input. Super simplified, if the market’s average LBMP is lower than LCOE for the plant, the plant shouldn’t be built…
Also South Australia grid (~1GW) has been running at 90% renewable for months, and recently 99% with some new hardware.
It is true the last 10% will be very hard, but luckily we have engineers.
These 2 factors also make it more difficult to commercialize frontier renewables like green hydrogen.
The notable thing was that CCGT costs aren't rising to the same extent, despite broadly similar capital cost to utility scale PV (page 11). And longer construction time (pages 37 PV and 39 CCGT), which affects the risk premium.
I recall reading that there was a polysilicon shortage because of changes in China's energy policy. Not sure what's going on with wind. Nor why CCGT costs are continuing low.
Different sources of capital have different capabilities to assess risk. A battery storage site is easy to understand so can be funded my smaller groups. Offshore wind requires more modelling, due diligence, and technical understanding so needs the resources a bank has. And a nuclear site is too difficult for anyone but government.
Also, inflation can vary across industries. For example wind turbines could be vulnerable to high steel costs. A fast project can better predict staff costs than a slow one.
I'm just going to preempt the argument because it is very normal. Nuclear isn't getting more expensive [0] because we've discovered the first technology that gets harder to work with as time goes one. That is all regulation. The LCOE is working to double in a decade and that is an external influence on the nuclear industry.
[0] See page 9 - Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical Utility-Scale Generation Comparison
Which is a dubious assumption in a world where the main sources of new power (solar and wind) and storage (batteries) are still dropping in price dramatically and are already at the level of the running costs of existing nuclear plants.
Take any LCOE spreadsheet and check the sensitivity to revenue 30 years out and you'll see that it basically doesn't matter.
What I'm suggesting is that there may be societal value in building long-running, small-footprint, 24/7, low-carbon electricity generation that is not fully captured at this time by the dollars-only investor metric of LCOE.
In other words, LCOE is from a banker's perspective. What we need is a measure of societal value. We want to measure sustainable prosperity, not simply monetary returns on investment.
None of these benefits of nuclear are even remotely included in LCOE assessments. They're just cast aside as unimportant, which is a big LOL, and why LCOE is no longer seriously considered in cross-technology comparisons by energy experts.
[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in...
[2] https://techxplore.com/news/2023-04-nuclear-power-environmen... (which is a write-up of https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25341-9)
If land was at a premium, this would advantage nuclear. It isn’t, so this provides no economic benefit.
https://www.power-technology.com/features/making-space-for-p...
https://blog.ucsusa.org/steve-clemmer/how-much-land-would-it...
https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf (Page 30)
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/fighting-windmill...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/517060/average-age-of-nu...
https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/ThreeYrsEnergyAva...
https://minedocs.com/20/Inkai_Operation_TR_12312016.pdf
https://opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=1y&interval=1w
Everything the nuclear propaganda arm ever says is a lie.
Youre doing the equivalent of looking at 1960s era solar tech and saying people claiming it can improve are liars.
Credulously believing the same lie again is just stupid. Especially when they are already uneconomic to run. All you are doing is wasting resources on stranded assets.
https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/renewal/app...
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/whats-lifespan-nuclear-re...
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/f...
https://www.nei.org/advocacy/preserve-nuclear-plants/second-...
Paying $15/W now *and then* $30/MWh on top *and then* having an option of paying $1-2/W later isn't somehow superior to paying $2/W for an equivalent amount of power now and amortising it at $24-40/MWh and then using the 80% of money left over for storage or whatever you please.
If you're worried about your solar farm 60 years in the future simply repower 15% of them every time you would refuel the nuclear plant for less money than the fuel would cost.
https://heated.world/p/big-oils-favorite-way-to-lie-palterin...
well, but we don't have it, I'm personally not sure how we would measure it. How is it measurable? I suppose if it were known how to measure it we would have that measure, and it seems we don't. So I guess, we're stuck with the banker's perspective until someone, perhaps you, provides a reliable alternative.
I'm generally not the person who asks "you think you can do better?" when someone complains about a failure but in the case about demanding a measure for sustainable prosperity I think it's reasonable to ask for an attempt.
If you take a look at the figure in the OP pdf (Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical Utility-Scale Generation Comparison), you'll see that this is no longer true. They are increasing in price in the last iteration.
Many energy technologies fall exponentially at small scale and then start to increase in price due to externalities at scale. This 'cost scales to first order with generation scale' hypothesis was first put forth by Komanoff in 1980 [1] and may well apply to wind/solar as scale runs into issues related to intermittency and land use (e.g. transmission, NIMBY)
[1] free pdf linked on https://komanoff.net/nuclear_power/
He has a master's from Yale Divinity School and Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Religious Studies from Valparaiso University. [0]
And previous members have been actively opposed to nuclear power as a concept:
After leaving the NRC, Jaczko called for a global ban on nuclear power. [1]
This is not an environment where reasonable and supportive people are trying to make nuclear power work. The NRC is a high-risk arena where the companies involved have confidence only that their applications may be reviewed by people who range between under-educated about the issues and actively hostile to their success as commercial ventures. There is a reason that the industry is almost alone in the 21st century as a technology that is getting harder to implement. That reason is a cult-like group of anti-nuclear activists who are willing to see people starve and freeze before they will allow a Fukushima to happen every 50 years. This is a significant contributing factor to why it is getting harder and more expensive to build nuclear plants.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_T._Hanson [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_Jaczko
Indeed, it compares apples to oranges, that is intermittent vs non intermittent sources.
It’s not criticized broadly by the entire energy industry…
From the nuclear stan's point of view nuclear is cheapest and best, and anything that contradicts that is wrong by definition.
It's the same thing as saying rain water is cheaper than tap water.