1-in-1000 year flooding in South Florida
cnn.com
cnn.com
1. Deep enough that you can't see obstacles in the water
2. Right on the edge of flooding your intake and destroying your engine (which I suppose won't matter if the water's that high - your car is destroyed anyway)
3. Going to get pushed over by almost _any_ current
(3) especially seems extremely dangerous. That much water is going to drain somewhere and it would be easy to accidentally move into flowing water and get sucked along by the current.
Like don't you think the lazy southerner the white collar internet loves to stereotype would call out of work at the drop of a hat?
Floods (usually flash floods or hurricane related floods) in Florida happens many times a year, just not over such a wide area or at this time in the season. To them it's no different than people in Boston driving in 6-8" of snow (to those not aware, driving in 8" of snow in a state that gets snow and has plows implies a 2ft+ storm). The reason this is a 1:1000 event is because it doesn't usually happen in April. It would be like people in Boston commuting in snow in May.
Is there a discussion to be had about the role and responsibility of humans in climate change makign these events more frequent? Of course. But that is completely tangential to the point I am trying to make which is that the hand wringing about "omg I can't believe they're going out in that" is just that, hand wringing.
I would have expected Florida to be similar
You misunderstand human nature. Or at least the nature of sufficient numbers of humans.
(1) A century of extremely heavy fossil fuel use by a rapidly growing human population increases CO2 levels with the most effect seen at about 12 km height in the atmosphere where the added CO2 absorbs infrared radiation that otherwise would have escaped to space. The re-radiated infrared warms the atmosphere a little bit (this is only about 1/3 of the overall effect, however). Some other gases (CH4, N2O etc.) have minor additive effects, but it's the fossil CO2 which is the primary driver.
(2) This warming increases the evaporation/precipitation ratio such that atmospheric water vapor increases. This water vapor may be clear-air or clouds, but overall it boosts the warming rate by about twice the CO2 effect (2/3 of overall effect). However, if you dropped atmospheric CO2, water vapor equilibrates quickly, i.e. weeks/months at most. But, you end up with a good deal more water vapor in the atmosphere (+10% IIRC?).
That's just the warming, no big deal it might seem. However, the Earth is still tilted on its axis, we still get seasons, we get mid-latitude storm fronts sweeping through, and if a polar cold front hits a body of air that has higher than usual water vapor content, then you get extra precipitation, driving flooding rates higher. On the other hand, if you have clear-air water vapor, and it sits in place, you can get a massive heat wave. This is why, depending on region and season and oceanic fluctuations, the severity of droughts and floods tends to increase over time as the planet warms.
It's not going away, and will get worse for the next 100 years at least, so, maybe build homes that can float? Moored to concrete pilings, say. Also, don't live in flood zones, or in low-lying coastal areas. And, stop burning fossil fuels for energy so it doesn't get even worse than it already will be.
"A titled “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise” published by the University of Colorado identified a drop in sales in high-risk coastal areas starting in 2013. The study also states that, on average, homes near sea level rise sold for 7% less than other comparable homes.
This downward trend strands in contrast to increased sales prices in nearby lower-risk areas. As sea levels continue to rise, this trend may continue. Wealthier homeowners will be able to move to lower-risk areas, while people with lower incomes will be subject to higher risks of flooding. Fewer Home Sales In High-Risk Areas
In addition to decreased sales prices, there are also fewer homes being sold in coastal high-risk areas. It should come as no surprise that people don’t want to live in areas where they feel threatened by extreme weather and wildfires. Even if being close to the woods or the ocean is a huge plus, no one wants their home to be threatened by a fire or flood.
With fewer homes being purchased in these areas, those who want to sell may have a harder time. The decrease in sales prices and home sales could be a housing market indicator for the future of coastal home sales."
I am astounded when I see coastal properties sold knowing that they will be untenable in the long term.
https://www.citizensfla.com/-/20230127-flood-insurance-requi...
But the mispriced risk is only part of the problem. Even if the risk were correctly priced, I do not believe that many properties being sold today will be standing in 30 years without significant extra investment. It is not just the private properties. Roads and other infrastructure are built in Florida with no apparent long term plan.
I don't mean to undermine the severity of the situation, but I think the headline is misleading, as most probably think of south Florida as a big swamp with rain all year round.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emerg...
so this seems like a record regardless of month
That seems strange to me.
The second sentence of the wikipedia article on the matter is, "There are two basic seasons in the Tampa Bay area, a hot and wet season from May through October, and a mild and dry season from November through April." [0]
The University of South Florida, on its page advising incoming students and faculty about how to prepare for the climate, says, "Tampa, Florida has a humid, subtropical climate with two distinct seasons: a hot and humid season from May through October and a milder, dry season from November through April."
...and really: it's plain to see for anybody who lives here. I've only lived here 3 years, but everyone I know regards the local climate as 2-season, and has home and/or lifestyle preparations for each.
0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Tampa_Bay_area
1: https://www.usf.edu/world/international-services/arrival-and...
I guess from having lived some time in north and south California I assume "dry" means "actually dry" as in "it's not going to rain at all this month".
The best insurance is to pay with a prepaid visa gift card so they can't take all your money while the situation sorts itself out.
Also this guy does hugely entertaining engine teardown videos often featuring water suckage consequences https://www.youtube.com/@I_Do_Cars/videos
I have many friends who moved down to FL and bought a house. They love it there but when they ask me to move I say no-way. First I like winter and the other I think buying property there is like tossing $ out the window. I believe your heirs (children) will not benefit from your investment.
Sadly right now, I am of the opinion we will blow right by 2C, nevermind keeping at 1.5C :(
My soon to be bumber-sticker" "Why move to FL when FL is coming here".
Climate change is coming for everyone, over two billion people[1] live at sea-level. Its clear to me at this point we're all going to be impacted substantially and yet somehow people keep talking about Florida as if we "fix FLorida" and everything magically gets better. It almost seems like a scapegoat for other states climate issues.
More than a foot of rain fell in a day. For a sense of scale, that's more than half of the mean rainfall that San Francisco gets in a year.
For climate change projections I always suggest people check the website:
Also, as a millennial in his mid-30s, all these "once in a <long ass amount of time>" events happening just in my adult life are starting to lose their punch. Given the severity of the yield curve inversion I'm expecting a "once in a century" recession/depression in the next five years, and given the number of disease research facilities coming online another "once in a century" pandemic some time in the next 20 when one of them messes something up, accompanied by "once in 1000 year" weather along the coastal areas at least every few years. And possibly some political militancy from one side or another as people are pushed passed their breaking point by all of this and more. However the US won't default on its debt as there are too many rich softies who would be hurt (in ego if not in reality) by it and will lobby to make sure it doesn't happen, so at least we have that, for now.
Anyone want to bet I'm wrong? Build your walls high and/or get aggressive, it's going to be a rough few decades. Vulnerability will be punished worse than in the previous era.