Germany to switch off last remaining nuclear power plants
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The "Green shift" is fundamentally not scientific, but driven by emotions and buzzwords, and hand-wavey things which can appear to be environmentally friendly or in some cases, just pure environmental accounting cheating/fraud (like moving your emissions to another country instead).
What all professional politicians really care most about though is their own personal reelection, and you can't get reelected without appealing to a wide enough audience. Doing "green" things is their current strategy to appeal to (non-rational perceptions held by) younger demographics.
France managed to scale nuclear power with the consent of the population, and it's gone fine, but for some reason countries right next door don't see anything worth learning.
I guess you could say the same about America and Canada, but some of us are accustomed to seeing Europeans as more enlightened than us politically. I suppose people around the world are not that different in the end.
Germany's nuclear infrastructure was just as "sustainable" (and that is a strange word for nuclear industry considering the investments, the mining, etc) as the French one, but smaller and entirely civilian.
...Hrrm... There has been a strange clustering of Leukemia in children near Geesthacht, with much fuss about why that could be, and that it can't be at all related to the NPP Krümmel and adjoining research center there.
There has been a tv-documentary by the ZDF in 2006, titled "Und keiner weiss warum... Leukämietod in der Elbmarsch" a few articles in the mainstream media, and some blogposts then.
From my memory it was all very strange, much hush-hush by the local government, defamation of concerned citizens, and even stranger the burning up of evidence in of all possible places, a fire station involved several times with emergencies there. By random chance...imagine....
( https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leuk%C3%A4miecluster_Elbmarsch... /
https://www.atommuellreport.de/daten/detail/forschungszentru... /
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/geesthacht-labor-bestrei... /
https://netzwerk-regenbogen.de/atomgk070413.html )
Also harassment and hampering of scientists which collected ground samples all over the area, and found no lab willing to examine them in all Germany. So they got it done in Minsk, Belorussia. Funny, isn't it?
What was found there where so called 'spherules', not bigger than one millimeter, hollow ceramic spheres, with (meanwhile?) weakly radioactive matter in them.
Obviously artificial. And unknown. Speculation ensues. Micronukes...
Conspiracy!1!!
Interestingly very similar stuff was also found in Hanau.
( www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/hanau-ermittlungen-wegen-radioaktiver-stoffe-im-wald-a-195069.html )
Whatever, call me sceptic regarding 'civilian'. Especially when the names of Kurt Diebner and Erich Bagge are involved :-)
There were never even rumors anybody wanted a nuclear weapons program. No dark funds. The IAEA is also controlling everything. So yes, any such speculation is ridiculous.
Drunken with Jägermeister, or what? And so much more. Some points are listed in the german wiki-article I linked.
I tend to think about that sort of ridiculing the other way around. As ignorance.
Oh, also Franz Yussuf Strauß, err... https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Strau%C3%9F
https://taz.de/Franz-Josef-Strauss-und-die-Gelueste-auf-eine...
https://www.spiegel.de/geschichte/kalter-krieg-als-die-us-ar...
That is a good thing regarding nuclear energy but much more problematic when it comes to issues like the recent pension reforms.
When Social Security was founded in 1935, the full retirement age was 65, and life expectency at birth was 60. Immigration was, though not at record levels, high. As a result, there were ~147 working people paying into Social Security for every beneficiary.
These days, full retirement age is 67, but life expectancy at birth is now 76.1 (was 78.8 in 2019 - the rapid decline is a completely separate issue that deserves it's own thread). Net immigration into the US is at record lows. As a result, there are now fewer than 3 people paying into Social Security for every recipient, about 2.6 last time I ran the numbers.
The average (mean) check for SS recipients (OASI) as of Feb 2023 is $1,693.88. I could not find numbers for the median SS check.
The average individual income in the US as of 2020 is $53,383, while the 2020 median income was $34,612.
Of FICA taxes, 6.2% each from the employer and employee goes to Social Security, the other 1.45% each is earmarked for Medicare. This does NOT include ordinary federal income taxes, state income taxes, county or city income taxes, etc.
So there is an effective tax rate of 12.4% feeding Social Security. It virtually all goes to OASI (Old Age Survivorship Insurance - "retirement" Social Security, distinct from DI, Disability Insurance, which costs a teeny tiny fraction of what OASI costs).
12.4% of the mean individual annual income of $53,383, divided by 12 to get a monthly value, gives us $551.62/month in Social Security funding from the mean income.
12.4% of the median individual annual income of $34,612, divided by 12 to get a monthly value, gives us $357.65/month in Social Security funding from the mean income.
So right now, there is about: 2.6 × [$357.65 to $551.62] roughly responsible for funding $1,693.88 per person. Now multiply that deficit by 67 million, the number of people receiving OASI. No prize for spotting the problem here.
Raising taxes probably won't help as much as proponents think it will, especially if you were to only raise them on the "rich" by raising or removing the FICA cap. Individually, it would be a lot more from those wealthy folks in theory, but the mega-rich of the world don't receive ordinary income the way us mere mortals do, and thanks to the 6,000+ page tax code, they often end up paying far less than we do as an effective tax rate on their income.
I see two solutions: scrap the absurdly complex tax code so the wealthy actually pay what they should be paying according to progressive tax rates to buy some time, and use that time to start figuring out how to solve the massive logistical complexity problems of spinning down the largest mathmatically unsustainable pyramid scheme in the history of all of humanity, the OASI component of Social Security. Mathematically, there is no need to disturb the Disability Insurance component of Social Security, which also helps those who have a far greater legitimate need for supplemental income than people who want to retire on the taxpayer's dime.
Germany was prevented from having nuclear weapons by various treaties.
You can also see this in the rail networks, if you ignore that france invested more into it's rail there's also a different philosophy. France not only connected major population centres, it is also quite focused on paris. Exactly as some planners, sitting in paris and planning top-down would devise them. Germany tries to interconnect as much as possible, benefitting as many as possible.
A bit more than that. Meat from wild boars in saxony and bavaria must be tested, before it can be sold and they do not disclose how much has to be thrown away.
So how come they're destroying entire villages to mine more coal? Coal, which is far more polluting than nuclear power?
I'm not a fan of nuclear power either, but the German addiction to coal is incomprehensible.
They are the typical union-jobs with large corporations in the background.
Having so much available renewable electricity that German coal plants would almost shut down for a few days would be a newsworthy event. For France not burning coal is just a regular day (except for last year's hiccups).
No. It's also because they moronically shut down nuclear right after Russia happened instead of keeping it longer. Since they can't replace gas too easily, the coal peak will be longer into the future not just current.
>Coal is used to replace gas
No. Coal is used to generate electricity. Do you know what else they could have used to generate electricity? Nuclear.
The reasoning you provided is just the same ol' anti-nuclear propaganda spewed all over German politics and media: "Oh, it's Russia's fault. We can only use coal. Never nuclear."
No, in the first place it's used to generate heat, which is also used for generating electricity, but also to heat up homes and other systems. Nuclear Plants are simply not in a location where they can serve this purpose.
I thought they just restarted old coal plants.
All while accumulating massive debts and deferred maintenance (and relying on german coal).
I'd rather my country have debts than burn coal in large amount for decade (likely decades) to come.
Which makes me think it fails to paint the whole picture, given the events in the following decade. In all dimensions. Be it nuclear phase out, be it geopolitical changes and instability because of war and broken supply chains, be it coal and climate, or the blow-up of Northstream and switching to LNG, be it extension of wind and solar...
Sorry, but mostly useless pretty pictures, considering all the changes that happened meanwhile.
All I can see is:
Russia invaded Ukraine, the great German idea of relying on Russian gas to manage the intermitent nature of Energiewende dreams went down the drain.
Even more coal and lignite were dug up, more burnt ashes with plenty of radioactive particles were put in German air for all to inhale.
LNG terminals were built to import x3 price American shale gas, making our collective CO2 blanket even thicker...
No matter how you see it, the picture is incomplete then, not up to date. That's not a good base for discussion.
https://medias.vie-publique.fr/data_storage_s3/rapport/pdf/2...
Speak for yourself.
Well, it is dangerous and therefore expensive. Mining Uranium is dirty. Handling the waste is expensive. And handling a big accident is very expensive.
The alternatives are just expensive as well and not without risk either.
So sure, big parts of those fears are definitely irrational. The risks of the invisible dangers of things people do not understand. This is always hard, especially coupled with the fear of a nuclear war. It should probably have been propagated more, that radiation is a very natural thing and without nuclear energy, there likely would be no life on earth, as the earth would be way colder, without fission inside the crust (and core?) warming the earth.
And that movement was strong back then, because chernobyl happened, the clouds came over here and to this day, it is recommended against eating mushrooms from the forest regulary.
Then Fukoshima revitalisied that traumata and in the heat of the moment, the decision was made.
Nuclear power is very unpopular in Germany. People don't like nuclear infrastructure in their back yards. And it's far from an irrational fear. And yes, there is a part about "We don't want nuclear weapons", so there is one less incentive to stomach the cost and issues and bulldoze over concerns.
At the moment we can have political arguments about keeping one or two online. Don't mistake that for a desire or ability to build new ones...
Planning to shut them down (without adequately speeding up replacements) was a mistake. But it's also a mistake to now decide to keep them (just 3! plants) running
Really, to want nuclear power you need a high risk appetite. You label everyone who doesn't have that appetite as irrational. That's dishonest.
So there is no risk involved, with betting on fossil fuels and the dictators who sell it? (and the health risk from coal)
And reneawbles are just not there yet, to cover 100% and they still have a long way to go. My personal favourite would have been desertec, but that did not come very far. And there is a big political risk there as well. Morocco is a dictatorship, but stable and the rest is quite instable. Maybe the southern EU countries would get enough sun, to achieve a "desertec" in the EU, but it is a risk as well, to bet on it. Governments change. Opinions change. Prices change. Blackmailing is a thing in politics.
In short, do you have a solution, that is quite riskfree which does not involve coal and does not make us dependant on dictators?
"perfectly long term storage can be found"
And why does it have to be perfect? It has to be good enough, that nothing leaks. Otherwise it can be moved and it could also be recycled.
You are still repeating the lie that fossil fuels are the alternative. Actually, renewable energy is the only way left because nuclear power takes decades to ramp up. Not only do nuclear power plants take years or decades to plan and build according to plan, they almost always go way over time and budget.
Both fossil fuel and renewable have a huge advantage in terms of risk over nuclear power (apart from not nuking populated areas): Nuclear power plants irrevocably commit their society to a couple of decades of risk. Unless you pull the plug early and eat the horrendous cost.
Why "forever"? You are aware of the concept, called half life? It means at some point, the waste will be not dangerous anymore. But yes, that will take some time. But if something happens, like an earthquake that makes a previously safe spot unsafe, you can still move it. (And otherwise you could recycle it to reburn it.)
But of course, you can argue the moving of the waste, is so expensive, because of activists. So then activists can better argue, that nuclear is so expensive. Hurey.
"You are still repeating the lie that fossil fuels are the alternative. "
What exactly is the lie here? I am using electricity right now, that is generated largely by fossil fuels. That is not good in the long term, no - but it is working right now. I think framing things as lying when it is just something you disagree with, is not the best discussion style, but rather sharing agendas.
But asking again directly: what is your proposed idea for riskfree implementation of renewables in germany?
"It also has to be acceptable to the population"
Because this is also a great issue here. Wind turbines face heavy resistance for example. And monocultures of corn are not great either. Offshore wind parks bring their own set of problems (mostly environmental, but also corrosive costs), and sun on its own would require massive storage and massive deployment of panels, which also have to be manufactured, which takes energy.
It is just not so easy.
I am very pro renewables. But I rather have nuclear plants for the transition and as backup, than continue burning coal. But I am open for working alternatives.
You don't understand the downsides of nuclear power. It's not even possible to build new plants in time to stop global warming. Even assuming those plants could be build on time and within budget. Which almost never worked, historically.
Of course that would be possible. It is a matter of investment and prioritizing. But of course, the biggest problem would be "people like you" (to use your black and white terminology) that would block everything and add extra regulations that do not bring more security, but blockage out of principle.
But like I said, going 100 nuclear would not be my plan. I see them as a transition and backup on the way to 100% renewables.
What would be your plan? If you would have it your way and all the nuclear plants would have to stop tomorrow. How would you replace them? With what? Can you give a concrete answer here? And it seems you also want to stop all the coal plants. Great. But how to replace them in reality? Can you share concrete numbers and technologies you would use and not just agenda?
I don't like to have a coal or nuclear plant in the backyard either. But I also don't like blackouts.
It started with Chernobyl but Fukujima was essentially the event that made the government speed up the whole plan.
Plus: the still unclear situation on how and where all the nuclear waste will be stored for the next thousands of years.
Note that nuclear plants only contributed to about 5% of all the electrical power in Germany.
After a few decades most of it will have decaded into low radioactivity industrial waste.
It's wild to me that Fukushima was held up as a reasonable justification to accelerate nuclear decommissioning in Germany. Even ignoring the extent to which the disaster in question could have been mitigated, was anyone expecting a tsunami to suddenly manifest over Bavaria?
No, the thinking or sentiment was, see, even high tech japan cannot securly operate nuclear plants(they know they have earthquakes and tsunamis), so there are surley things we overlooked as well. So nuclear is not totally safe.
And there are a few things, as far as I know. For example the plants were not build taking into account, terrorists crashing a plane into them.
And how fast can we build them? They need to start to come online in the next few years to do anything to stop global warming.
Because the Japanese government's failure to stop TEPCO from this miss-management is just as bad as any engineering oversight. And Japan isn't a third-world country. Japan runs a tight ship in most regards, tighter than the US and many EU nations. Other countries with a nuclear industry are far more troublesome: Iran, Pakistan, India, Ukraine, Russia, China... But if Japan can fail so spectacularly, all risk estimates around nuclear power are futile.
For me that qualifies as unknown unknown. Just a question of perspective. Japanese society, government, maybe even their nuclear regulatory agency (whatever that is) trusted TEPCO to know this shit.
I'm not worried about the exact same thing happening in a German plant. I'm worrying about something else happening WE didn't know or care about. Compare commercial aircraft accidents. Every time a passenger plane crashes, there's a big investigation, lessons are learned and thus safety is improved. Still, crashes happen again and again for new reasons, often not anticipated, sometimes Human error of pilots or other personnel, sometimes of engineers, sometimes other causes. But: At most one plane full of people died. If every time the plane went up in a nuclear mushroom cloud or contaminated a couple square kilometers worth of inhabited real estate, I guess we'd rethink air travel altogether.
The nuclear waste storage is not solved because it is a policy not to solve it.
On all metrics coal is more damaging and dangerous than nuclear.
Putting coal as the alternative to nuclear power is not just a mistake, it's an entirely dishonest argument trying to fool people.
Still doesn't negate my point that coal is going to be phased out and that coal generation wasn't ramped up as nuclear power was ramped down. There is just no clear relation.
Why is it a mistake or dishonest? That is the reality: Germany already powered many coal plants back up to replace gas and nuclear. Now it will take even longer to get rid of coal.
Yes, the plan was to get rid of coal sooner, the Ukraine war made that harder. Actually some more lignite coal got burned last year in order to compensate. But we're going to get rid of those coal plants a lot sooner than if we were to build a couple new nuclear power plants which would commit us to a few more decades of that technology and all the associated problems.
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/steinkohlek...
With 6 nuclear power plants that could be a lot less
People like you dishonestly want to fool people into believing each terawatt hour not generated by nuclear power is compensated by one terawatt hour generated from coal. Because it's lazy and convenient and some people are stupid enough to believe it.
Same. Yet there are always demonstrations against nuclear waste sites. Or windmils .. or geothermic.
Current estimate for a decision on where to put a German nuclear waste site is the year.. 2046. Or 2068. Does not include building it. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/suche-nach-ato...
Well 40 years :D But that includes building it.
> The site was selected after a long process, which started in 1983 with a screening of the whole Finnish territory. > The facility is expected to be operational in 2023.
I bet there where not many demonstrations in Finland.
It will take Germany 40 years just to find a site. And then the demonstrations start.
Also doesn't help that most recent German chancellors form Schroeder to Merkel were in bed with the Kremlin for whom nuclear was a threat to their gas business so spreading anti nuclear propaganda through the media to the gullible German public was a necessary move.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraftwerk_Datteln#/media/Datei...
Coal gave us such nice installations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrahedron_in_Bottrop
Pretty shiny, isn't it?
We had a nuclear storage site picked out long ago. Then it turned out it wasn't suitable. That's at least as much bad luck as "lack of foresight" or anything else. Finland didn't have that problem. If their storage site turned out to be unsuitable after decades of preparation, maybe they wouldn't continue with nuclear power either.
Last: You accuse others of propaganda but use a phrase like "in bed with the Kremlin" and spout conspiracy theories. You don't understand German politics. Mistakes were made. Presuming malice is convenient and lazy.
Exactly, which why nuclear is not the best option for Germany.
How does that matter? Solar is not the only source of renewable energy for Germany. 2021, Germany got 42% of its energy from renewable sources, 2022 it already grew to 46%, and 2023 it grows even more. And those numbers are only so "low" because of political reasons and stupid people.
For over a decade the conservative and corrupted sabotaged the progress of renewable energies in Germany. This changed, partly because the government shifted, but to a strong part also because of Russia becoming a problem that not even the corrupted could ignore anymore. The progress since last summer in Germany is incredible, and it won't stop.
And how much of that is coal?
Nuclear power plants provides stable power regardless of weather, wind and climate, and serves as a necessary baseline which can be complimented by renewables.
Eliminating this without having any replacement, any stable baseline power is knowingly making the power-grid and power-supply of your nation unstable. In lack of better words, I would call it malicious.
I know some German powerplants have to lower power output when the cooling water gets low during heat waves: https://qz.com/1348969/europes-heatwave-is-forcing-nuclear-p...
But is that still the case with newly build plants?
Do you know if it still the case with modern reactors that they are affected by heatwaves?
Nuclear power is only cheap if you ignore that in essence, the whole society is carrying the risk of almost anything that goes wrong. A nuclear power company can't insure any of those risks and certainly can't pay the damages.
Also hidden in those cost estimates is that you need a highly specialized labor force that is hard to ramp up and ramp down, and the field isn't exactly trendy. France is having a huge issue with that right now.
I'm quite worried about China in general. Their inability to regulate various sectors doesn't bode well for their future nuclear safety record. You also wouldn't know anything about Chinese nuclear incidents unless it's absolutely unignoreable.
Germany chose coal and gas. They should be held accountable for that.
France has plenty of problems with nuclear power. The only conclusion is that nuclear power for France only makes sense - barely - because France wants to have nuclear weapons.
Kind of the same how oil companies shill for windmills and solar while telling everyone that nuclear power is very, very dangerous, because they know that windmills and solar aren't a solution and all countries that rely on such tech will be dependent on oil and gas.
Renewables aren't really seen as a threat to fossil fuels, unlike nuclear power.
Lützerath was demolished for coal just this year.
Definitely going to shoot right back up any second now that it's financially unviable.
West Germany was looking for a nuclear waste site. I think long to medium term? Not sure. Anyhow, they had like about a dozen potential sites. But then East Germany places a nuclear waste site very close to the border.
Politicians do what they do best, step over the suggestion of the scientist and place all the nuclear waste into Asse II, which is close to the border. Just to fuck with East Germany. No, Asse II was not on the list of potential sites :)))
Now we are combined again with a nuclear waste site smack in the middle of Germany. Groundwater leaks in and we have to dig up the old rusting barrels again.
They have to dig a whole new tunnel just to get to them. It's insane. Oh, and before that we and a few other countries just throw the barrels into the ocean.
This was a long time ago, so you might think we found a new site. No :) NIMBY is strong.
France and Finnland have some decent long term storage.
Combine the bad government track record with that Germany is the birth place of homeopathy and 50% of the population believes in angels. Sprinkle in a bit of Fukushima and Chernobyl. My mother sometimes talks about how she was scared and my sister could not play outside.
Sure, a large part of it is not rational.
Switching off the nuclear power plants is a concious descision of the German society to go without from nuclear power. The descision is not between nuclear and fossil. The decision is between nuclear, and using less energy (when renewable cannot fill the gap).
I find it surprising that the proponents of nuclear power, who are often free-market libertarians, have so little faith in the market. If we produce less power, prices will go up at first. But only marginally, because it will become more lucrative to build new (renewable) power plants. And energy-intensive industry will be scaled back in times where not much is generated. The economy works basically like a buffered solution. That's why I'm confident, when we turn off the last nuclear plant, nothing will happen.
Yes, before the nuclear transition, Germany exported quite a lot of energy to France, the supposed smart nuclear country.
Nuclear power makes sense in stable peaceful societies where long term planning and maintenance mitigate the risks associated with it.
Europe is perhaps, not currently a stable peaceful place where that makes sense.
In other circumstances I’d be all for nuclear power… but, maybe some solar panels that won’t fuck anything up if the conflict in Ukraine gets out of hand or global warming / ai / banking crisis causes a society collapse isn’t such a bad call in the short term, eh?
The turning point where this changes is quite far off for most countries. You need to replace a lot of fossil fuels with solar/wind to come to that point. And by the time that happens, other solutions will be used, some of which are ready, some of which are not: plant-based fuels, energy storage of various forms and better capacity planning.
But if you were really interested in this topic you should have heard or read that argument a thousand times by now, so I assume you just don't want to listen.
Sir, your response is not very civilised!
Short term, if you had 10GW of controllable nuclear, you will have to replace it with 10GW of another controllable source. As long as you don't have huge energy storage, replacing reliable and controllable energy source with something not controllable is pure fantasy. In our world this is typically replaced by Gas or Coal. Maybe in a future world we'll have plans to replace one controllable power plant with renewable and storage. BTW I'm mostly speaking about capacity and infrastructure, for sure you are free to not use an infrastructure at its maximum when there is wind or sun but you still need to build it, maintain it, buy and store gas coal or whatever...
Solar/wind is far from ideal, requiring more cement, metal and other materials but also more space than other traditional concentred power sources and by multiple orders of magnitude. You also have to take into account new infrastructures for energy storage.
Citation needed. Afaik nuclear is not expensive because of it's ongoing resource need but because of its construction (and also regulatory) costs.
I'm not writing a wikipedia article. If you want to disprove, feel free to add you own sources and knowledge. I legitimately would be really interested to read how Solar and Wind takes less space, cement and metal than nuclear per WH produced.
Now replacing nuclear capacity, with whatever else, in order to reduce total emissions doesn't make sense, you are doing this for a totally different purpose. Replacing nuclear capacity by investing in new fossil capacity, in order to reduce total emissions, doesn't sound that smart.
One way to put it: The entire safety record of nuclear power depends on no major war (compared to WWII) being fought around those plants and secondly nobody realizing ill intentions otherwise. There are ways to sabotage nuclear power, and we are betting a LOT on many societies' abilities to prevent or even predict every single one.
2)The companies do want to run them, just bot under the imposed conditions and constant exit threat. Preussen Elektra lobbied to keep them running constantly
3)They provided vastly more in the past but got axed piece by piece
4) around 80% currently want to keep them running, especially younger people
5) in other news, no one wants climate change. And no garden was requested as waste storage yet.
2) The majority of German companies do not want to return to nuclear: “The phasing out of nuclear energy was decided in 2011 in a political and social consensus and is clearly regulated by law. The use of nuclear energy for electricity production has therefore ended in Germany.”
This decision was made by the conservative Merkel government, not by the green party.
"The dismantling of the power plants, the disposal of radioactive material, the search for a repository - all of this consumes enormous sums of money. German authorities and research institutes are therefore expecting up to 34 cents per kilowatt hour for nuclear power - by far the highest price of all forms of energy."
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energiewend...
3) The have provided a greater part of the electricity, not of the energy needs.
4) The decision was made in 2011, data shows only 21% in favour of nuclear.
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/196207/umfrag...
5) Backyard does not mean garden. It means near a village for example.
for example, germany does not have much space for radioactive waste and the people do not want to live near radioactive waste. so politicians can't decide where to put all the waste.
also the performance of nuclear plants are not convincing: if you look to france where many nuclear plants have to shut down because there is not enough water to cool down the plants.
Other rational arguments: The infrastructure is unwieldy and extremely unpopular at best. Germany has no path to solving the nuclear waste issue, partly for political reasons: Nobody wants that (or other parts of nuclear infrastructure, really) in their backyard, and backyards are spaced pretty closely in the old world, and when every citizen has the same voting weight, tough luck. It just doesn't work.
Ukraine is teaching us another point: Nuclear power plants are weak points in the national security, and extremely so in wartime. Even when the enemy shows restraint (Russia strangely does, in that regard) there is an awkward element of hostage taking. Nuclear power is a bet on multiple decades of peace and everything going just right. And if you were really that interested, you could easily find lots more arguments.
Just like it makes (economic) sense for Germany to use its ECB role to put struggling economies into debt agreements that, for instance, transfer control of national infrastructure like airports to German corporations.
Of course, in both cases, the superficial reasons given are bright fairytales of benevolence, and the German economic benefits are cast as convenient but coincidental externalities.
Name the struggling country that was supposedly put in a debt agreement. Is this Greece? Did Greece not _choose_ in a popular vote to remain in the Eurozone? Did they not enter the Eurozone by using fraudulent accounting in the first place? Let us know what Germany then supposedly did exactly during that crisis.
Regarding coal your argument makes zero sense. Either nuclear is cheaper and could cover all needs, then it doesn't matter how much coal there is, it could be left alone. Or it isn't, then there is no need to shut down nuclear to expand coal.
In reality German coal mining has not been economical for decades and has been heavily subsidised to safe some jobs. The German policy is to change everything to renewables and to phase out coal until 2030.
The troika, of course being also conveniently headed by the German chancellor, or "the de facto leader of the European Union (EU)" as her Wikipedia page explains in its introductory description.
This is like saying the EU parliament conveniently is located in Belgium and therefore Belgium controls it.
"The ECB is directly governed by European Union law. Its capital stock, worth €11 billion, is owned by all 27 central banks of the EU member states as shareholders." [0]
[0] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/capital/html/index.en.htm...
The ECB was not strapped of any power, but as a central bank it cannot by itself bailout countries. The Troika was formed to perform this bailout.
I'm not disputing that Germany wields considerable soft power in Europe due to the size of it's economy, but the EU is set up in a way that Germany is a member like the others.
More information here: https://time.com/3980384/germany-europe-greece-crisis/
"German taxpayers invested for decades in the development of peripheral European Union members, spent trillions to develop Eastern Germany, and will now pay a good chunk of a third Greek bailout that will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 billion."
I recommend https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission
as reading if you truly believe I'm talking about "soft power" from "large economy size"
The topic is not coal, the topic is nuclear. You suddenly started talking about coal, claiming that Germany wants to reduce its own nuclear power plants in order to use more of its own coal. Makes zero sense since the nuclear plants were inside the country, not outside so it doesn't make sense to pretend that Germany is pushing its own product at the expense of someone else. And it is factually wrong, since Germany is also moving aways from coals until 2030.
I'm not downvoting you because I can't even do this, since HN does not permit to downvote replies. But if I could I would have done so since you make wild claims without providing even a shred of evidence or a source.
https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2/charts/4d971e78dafc471b...
The only thing I can clearly see in this plot is the Invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
No matter what you want to say, it makes no sense, since both the nuclear plants and the coal plants are owned by German companies. It simply doesn't make sense to argue that Germany is trying to unfairly get an advantage by shutting down one type of it's plants to benefit the other type.
The generation born after WWII developed a deep desire to not repeat the slaughter of WWII and many felt that their parents essentially lied to them about their experiences during the Nazi era and their responsibility for it. This mistrust transferred to government policies that would rebuilt the German armed forces, join NATO and by extension come under the "nuclear umbrella" of the US. Nuclear power was seen by many of these people as a bridge technology into nuclear weapons.
Regarding Chernobyl, it might be difficult for Americans to understand how scary and personal that crisis felt for many Germans. I personally can't remember the incident, but our parents shaved our heads and kept us indoors for days and weeks out of fear of potential nuclear fallout. It is comparable to the psychological impact of the COVID-epidemic for many of that generation. My wife is from Eastern Bavaria and forest mushrooms and wild boars over there still have elevated radiation levels and are not recommended to be eaten in many cases.
The phaseout of the last nuclear power plants was essentially decided more than two decades ago under a green-left government. A bit more than ten years ago, a center-liberal government came to power and would have been able to reverse the decision (many politicians in the two parties would have liked to) but Fukushima happened and this became politically untenable. To remove the topic from the political discourse, Angela Merkel pushed through an acceleration of the phaseout schedule.
Today, even the companies running the power plants have lost interest. Re-certification was not done in recent years and would take the remaining power stations offline for months or years, anyway. All of them are many decades old now, beyond their original life span.
So is all of this "rational"? Maybe not in hindsight, but I would argue it was for many people at the time and given that nuclear power never contributed more than roughly 25% to Germanys power production (I think), renewables are growing rapidly and no nuclear power station has been built without massive government subsidies, I personally think that re-entering the nuclear arena does not make any sense for Germany at the moment.
The number of nuclear reactors in operation in the EU peaked in 1989. More than thirty years of decline demonstrate low political, taxpayers and eventually industrial support. There are only so many years you can invest at training and financing without returns.
Only nations with a nuclear deterrent still moderately invest in nuclear power. Industry and society in general moved on.
That says it best. Germany will probably see a dramatic increase in fossil fuel consumption. They will also likely see higher energy prices.
Have I got news for you...
FYI our „experts“ and think-tanks (DIW, Agora Energiewende, Öko-Ibstitut) are sure renewables are basically free and nuclear is blocking the RE build-up. Plus, nuclear is so dangerous and produces so much waste, it is a non-starter. The only thing they hate more than Co2 is nuclear power, thus we keep runnung brown coal power plants at 1kg/Co2 per kwh.
Thanks I guess.
That is far more urgent. Please leave some nuclear power plants operational if doing so helps you to turn of coal power plants.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-coal-region-brin...
Why does the German government and anti-nuclear activists insist on pushing this falsehood? After a few decades most of it will have decayed into low-radioactive isotopes. It will then just be the usual chemically toxic industrial waste.
France and Finland have a decent solution.
Germany was really really really bad at storing nuclear waste. Which is why I'm also against nuclear power plants in Germany.
But what we know for sure is that history already now points at Germany on how to not store Nuclear waste.
> Bis spätestens im Jahr 2038 soll das letzte Kohlekraftwerk in Deutschland stillgelegt werden.
"The last coal-fired power plant in Germany is to be shut down by 2038 at the latest."
If a single person was responsible it would be easier to show this, but one of the perks of a large organization is that no one is responsible for anything.
No, not completely.
Even after decades of search and committee, Germany still does not have a long term nuclear waste site. And with a history of the government fucking those up in Germany it's understandable no one wants them. Emotional yes, irrational not.
Basically US must save Germany again and again for another hundreds of years keeping nuclear weapons in Germany.
Also Germany went all-in in buying ship-wise solar panels from China constructing another dependency. Stupid thing is that sun does not shine in the night. Also batteries will be bought container-wise from China.
I don’t know if it was clever decision to replace nuclear with coal. Kinda of back to the 60s.
In case of Germany, a 2015 study compared various scenarios for how electricity demand will develop by 2050. The most expansive scenario assumes a yearly demand of 800 TWh, compared to roughly 500 TWh in 2021. [1] The additional demand comes from electrifying cars and heating, etc.
Demand does of course vary by time of day, but is virtually stable from month to month. Variability of renewable production is quite high, so let's assume that you'd need long-term grid-scale electricity buffers for about 30% of yearly demand. The most basic approach to this would be the transformation of electricity and water into Hydrogen when an excess of electricity is available and the reverse when demand outstrips supply. The combined efficiency of that process (electricity->Hydrogen->electricity) is roughly 50%. I'm actually pretty sure that by 2050 we'll have much better solutions available, but this approach is doable with current tech and has the added bonus of being able to be combined with a hydrogen infrastructure similar to how natural gas is currently used, i.e. for industrial processes and heating.
That would put total yearly demand at 1,040 TWh, which based on the efficiency of currently available PV and wind turbines [2] would require a total nominal installed capacity of about 1.040 GW (based on real world data from Germany, 1 GW in installed renewable capacity is roughly equal to a yearly production of 1 TWh. This will vary based on local circumstances, but Germany is not particularly bountiful in its renewable potential compared to other countries).
Currently, Germany has a total installed capacity of solar, wind and water power generation of about 125GW but I will assume that all these installations will reach their end of life before 2050 and will need to be replaced as part of this project.
At current prices for the installation of new PV (700,000 €/MW) and wind onshore/offshore (3,000,000 €/MW) and assuming a 50/50 split in installed capacity, the total investment for the required 1,040 MW would come to roughly 2 Trillion Euros over 30 years, or about 66 Billion Euros per year.
Divided by 800 TWh of yearly demand, this comes out to 8.3 cents (Euro) per KWh. This is comfortably below the 2021 average whole sale price of roughly 10 cents/KWh and in Germany would come out to about 20 cents/KWh for private consumers, compared to the current market average of roughly 30 cents/KWh.
Of course current energy production is quite heavily subsidized by the German government. If subsidies continue (or taxes on electricity are lowered), price per KWh could be reduced substantially.
This is of course only a very rough and simplified calculation. But it is straightforward and based on real world data, a pessimistic energy consumption scenario and current technologies. It ignores the potential for geothermal energy, biomass, imported hydrogen, long-distance imports of solar energy from the Sahara, or hydro power from Northern Europe, as well as likely technological improvement for generating and storing renewable energy. Looking at this, I find it hard to believe that absent a complete revolution of reactor design and cost-effectiveness, nuclear power will have any serious role to play in this, given its regulatory challenges, capital expenditure requirements, construction times and unsolved waste management issues.
[1] https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2015/St... [2] https://www.smard.de/home/marktdaten
This ain't Finland.
Edit: Reality: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/suche-nach-ato... (Maybe they have a decision for a possible location in 2046, maybe 2068)